Ford’s licence fee sticker refund could help him win
Ontario Conservative Leader Doug Ford has been criticized for siding with developers over the environment, allowing for-profit companies to dominate long-term-care, and not protecting schoolchildren from the dangers of COVID-19.
And yet he’s running far ahead of his rivals in the upcoming Ontario election.
That’s because people are even more worried about soaring housing costs, runaway inflation, and gasoline prices that are poised to hit $2 a litre. This is what’s hitting close to home right now.
“People are preoccupied with one thing: Pocketbook issues,” said Simpson, who is senior vice-president of Ipsos.
In a Ipsos poll prepared for Global News, 39 per cent of respondents said they’d vote Conservative if the election were held tomorrow. That’s well ahead of 26 per cent for the Liberals, 25 per cent for the New Democratic Party and five per cent for the Green Party. The poll interviewed 1,501 Ontario residents online and by phone between April 29 and May 1.
Ford’s recent announcement, that the government would return to drivers hundreds of dollars in fees they paid for their licence plate stickers, feeds right into voters’ anxiety about affordability.
“That policy was targeted at swing voters in the 905,” said Simpson, referring to the vote-rich suburban areas around Toronto, where people spend a lot of time in their cars.
It’s a smart strategy for two reasons. One, even if you don’t like that specific tactic of returning money directly to voters, “it reinforces to people that Doug Ford is best placed to help you with issues of affordability,” Simpson said.
And two, the Conservatives have now cemented a formidable lead in the 905, where 47 per cent would vote for Ford if the election were held tomorrow. Ford’s Conservatives are 21 points ahead of the second-place Liberals in that region.
The suburbs around Toronto are “the part that matters” when it comes to winning elections, Simpson said.
“It can be the only part that matters. It’s pretty much game over, if that holds.”
Meanwhile, even though Ford has been criticized for his handling of the pandemic, voters understand the extraordinary pressures at play, and are generally inclined to give incumbent governments the benefit of the doubt. They did the same with the federal Liberals last year, Simpson noted.
Make no mistake, more people are against Ford’s Conservative than for them. Thirty-nine per cent is not a majority, but it is enough to win an election.
About 60 per cent of voters believe it’s time for change, the poll found.
“The Progressive Conservatives have pulled away from the rest of the pack as the Liberals and NDP jockey for the progressive vote,” said a press release from Ipsos.
In the city of Toronto, Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives. In Eastern and Central Ontario, the Conservatives are ahead.
Southwestern Ontario, which includes Waterloo Region, has the Conservatives well ahead of their rivals at 38 per cent approval compared with 25 per cent for the New Democrats and 21 per cent for Liberals.
But that snapshot, by itself, won’t tell you what will happen in Kitchener or Cambridge. Southwestern Ontario is very diverse, including urban areas that traditionally vote New Democrat or Liberal, along with rural areas that are steadfastly Tory.
The first part of this election campaign has functioned a little bit like a primary, Simpson said, in which the Liberals and New Democrats are competing with one another to be the party best placed to receive anti-Ford votes.
But there are only three and half weeks to go before voting day. That’s not a lot of time for the littleknown Steven Del Duca or the perennial opposition party leader Andrea Horwath to establish themselves over the other. Time, or rather the lack of it, may turn out to be Ford’s best ally.