Biden’s snub is a chance to carve our own path
The world is being split into blocs. Canada will soon have to decide on which of these blocs it chooses to join.
Things used to be simpler. During the Cold War and the periods after, we simply followed America’s lead.
If America declared war on terror, so did we. If that in turn brought us to war in, say, Afghanistan, so be it.
True, Canada often engaged with America in subtle ways. We did not, for instance, openly take part in George W. Bush’s war against Saddam Hussein.
But Canadian troops operating from bases in places like Kuwait did quietly support our American allies in that and other wars in the Middle East.
In the Iraq War, Canada initially provided more manpower to America’s cause than any member of Bush’s so-called “coalition of the willing.”
The point is that this support was virtually assured. America didn’t have to formally ask for it (although to keep everyone happy, it usually did). Canada didn’t have to formally offer it (although again to keep everyone happy, it usually did).
In most cases, these things just happened. It was assumed that Canada would be involved and on America’s side.
These assumptions no longer hold. U.S. President Joe Biden has announced the formation of a new, 13member, invitation-only international organization.
What’s interesting about this Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity is that it doesn’t include Canada.
India has been asked to join, as have Japan and South Korea. So too have Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines. So too have Malaysia, New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei. So too Australia.
But not Canada.
Does this matter? Maybe not. It’s not at all clear what Biden’s new framework is meant to do. Most framework members already belong to a trans-Pacific trade deal that does include Canada (although tellingly not the U.S.)
Indeed, the key element of the Biden framework may be the fact that it excludes China.
The U.S. sees China as its main rival in the region. Beijing aggressively pursues trade deals that favour its interests.
This year, for instance, China, Japan and South Korea inked one of largest trade deals in the world. This appears to have alarmed Washington, and may explain its new-found fascination with the Asia-Pacific region.
Certainly, China has done well. It has successfully increased its influence with governments across the Pacific region. For some small Pacific island governments, Chinese economic aid has become a fiscal necessity.
Overall, this has forced the often fuzzy practitioners of trade to become more choosy. In the old days, rhetorical bromides were enough to satisfy nervous bondholders. Now, America’s client states are expected to do more.
It is tempting to treat Biden’s snub of Canada as a gratuitous insult. In fact, it is an opportunity.
We can do as we usually do, and jiggle our foreign policy until it comes into line with America’s new demands. Or we can carve out an independent position on the Indo-Pacific region that may not please the Americans, but that is in line with Canadian interests.