Region to make business case for LRT to Cambridge
Document expected to spell out costs and benefits of project in detail
The Region of Waterloo is set to begin work on a key document in its bid to extend light rail transit into Cambridge, after a delay of almost two and a half years.
The region originally said it would start work in October 2021 on the business case for the $4.5-billion project, which would link the region’s three cities by light rail and be the most ambitious infrastructure project in the region’s history.
The region now expects to hire a consultant and begin work in April on the business case for Phase 2 of the Ion. The business case is a crucial document that spells out the costs and benefits of the project in detail. It is now expected to be completed by the end of 2025, when it would go to the provincial government.
There were several reasons for the delay, said Matthew O’Neil, manager of rapid transit co-ordination at the region. Most had to do with updating key information such as cost estimates, which are now almost triple the 2021 projected cost, as well as provincial population estimates for the region, and a change of the proposed south terminal to Ainslie Street.
“It’s a large project,” O’Neil said. “It’s an important, strategic project. It’s important to get it right.”
The business case will now also consider several scenarios:
■ the original full proposal to extend the Ion 18 kilometres from Fairway station in Kitchener to downtown Galt;
■ a shorter route from Fairway to Pinebush Road for $2.9 billion,
■ a mid-length route from Fairway to the Delta in Cambridge for $3.9 billion;
■ a standalone Cambridge LRT from Preston to downtown Galt with a bus link to Fairway;
bus rapid transit, where buses would travel from Fairway to downtown Galt on dedicated lanes and have traffic signal priority.
“The business case is a major step,” O’Neil said, and a key document in the region’s request for project funding.
The region hopes to secure full construction funding from the federal and provincial governments for this second phase — unlike the Ion’s first phase, for which the region covered one-third of the $1billion cost.
The business case will include the latest population projections, estimates of how people in Cambridge will get around, and ridership projections.
It will focus on four areas:
■ the strategic case — how the project meets regional goals for climate change and for more intensive development along a transit corridor rather than sprawling into the countryside;
■ the economic case — the broader, community-wide costs and benefits such as travel time saved;
■ the financial case, looking at the estimates of the costs and revenues of building and operating Phase 2;
■ the “deliverability” and operations case, looking at procurement strategies, deliverability risks and operating plans and risks.
In 2021, the province approved the project’s transit project assessment, a detailed environmental assessment that outlines the proposed route, details the project’s environmental, heritage and other impacts, and spells out plans to minimize those impacts.
If approved, Phase 2 construction could start in 2032 and would likely take five or six years, O’Neil said.
The region hopes to have a public event, possibly as soon as this fall, with new images of what the system will look like once built.
The event will help illustrate the kind of mixed-use development the region hopes that light rail would spark, and give people a sense of how Cambridge is expected to change with rapid transit.
“It will show the public what future conditions will look like — what Hespeler Road will look like with mixed-use, transitoriented development, with larger, taller buildings, with cycling facilities and pedestrian facilities,” O’Neil said.
“There will be development,” he said. “There will be change. We want the public to understand what that will look like.”
Stage 1 of the Ion began operating in 2019, has 19 stations and runs 19 kilometres. More information on Stage 2 of the light rail transit plan is available at regionofwaterloo.ca/stage2ion