Gingrich needs sweep in U.S. South

Romney wins territories, Wyo.

BIRMINGHAM, ALA. Newt Gingrich faces a make-or-break test Tuesday as he seeks to sweep the conservative southern states of Alabama and Mississippi and reboot his bid to become the 2012 Republican presidential nominee.

As front-runner Mitt Romney racks up delegates on his long march to the expected nomination, rivals Gingrich and Rick Santorum have been slugging it out in a side duel to emerge as the sole conservative challenger.

Both men cling to the hope the other may be forced out, allowing a head-tohead contest with Romney. But each week that one doesn’t, the favourite moves closer to the magic 1,144 delegates needed to seal the nomination.

The status of the battle to take on President Barack Obama in November differs massively depending on whom you ask: Romney says it’s already over, Santorum says it’s now a two-horse race between him and Romney, while Gingrich says wait for Mississippi and Alabama, which hold primaries Tuesday.

“Mathematically, this thing is about over, but emotionally it’s not,” senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said, crediting Santorum for his recent surge and Gingrich for coming “back from the dead two or three times.

“If Romney does well, wins either Mississippi or Alabama and wins Illinois (on March 20), then I think it’s virtually impossible for this thing to continue much beyond early May,” Graham added.

The stakes couldn’t be higher on Tuesday for Gingrich, who has won just two of 26 voting contests so far and must sweep both Mississippi and Alabama if he is to change the narrative of the race.

“I think we’ll win both. We are campaigning very aggressively on both states,” Gingrich told Fox News Sunday.

Santorum’s win in Kansas on Saturday — taking 33 of the 40 delegates — was offset by Romney victories in Wyoming and in the U.S. territories of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Romney has now won 17 of 26 state or territory votes, compared with seven wins for Santorum — eight if you include a straw poll in Missouri — two for Gingrich, and none for Texas congressman Ron Paul.

With 455 delegates, Romney has almost 40 per cent of the 1,144 needed to secure the nomination. Santorum trails with 199 delegates, and Gingrich has 117, according to authoritative aggregator Realclearpolitics.

This lead means Romney’s competitors must win 70 to 75 per cent of the remaining delegates — which are handed out proportionally by district in many states — in order to snatch the nomination.

Romney, who turns 65 today, has portrayed himself as the underdog in the Alabama and Mississippi Bible Belt.