Obama delay signals ‘No’ on Keystone
Pipeline could cost Democrats Senate control
WASHINGTON — Keystone XL is clearly the party that U.S. President Barack Obama doesn’t want to attend.
For years now he has been dodg ing per sis tent invitations hand-delivered by Prime Minister Stephen Harper and a parade of cabinet ministers and western premiers as well as plastered across the walls and floors of Washington subway stations in the form of ads pro mot ing U. S.- Can ada friendship and energy security.
Obama’s reply has been to delay, which he did again last week. And once again the excuse was Nebraska.
Back in Feb ru ary when a Neb raska judge ruled the state’s pro cess for ap proving the pipe line’s route was il legal, the U. S. State Department dismissed it as immaterial to the as sess ment process.
Then Obama sur prised everybody last week by using it as an excuse to postpone his final decision.
That Neb raska was once again lit tle more than a conven ience is significant. Obama’s de ci sion on Keystone is about whether it’s in the nation al in terest of the United States to al low this pipeline to cross the border. It’s not about wheth er the route through Neb raska is safe or whether the Nebraska pro cess for ap prov ing that route was legal.
That, in the end, is for Nebraska to decide. Obama could easily have approved the pipeline and left Nebraska to settle its section of the route.
But he didn’t. In stead, he fol lowed conven tion al wisdom that a “Yes” to Keystone would discourage his environment al ist youth base and a “No” would give fod der to Republicans who would label him a job-killer.
Faced with increasing pressure to make a de ci sion in May, he chose to side with his advisers that he had nothing to lose by another delay. Democrats fear the loss of just
“OVER HALF OF AMER ICANS DON’T KNOW WHAT THE EX PERTS HAVE CON CLUD ED, WHICH MEANS IN MY OPIN ION THE EX PERTS HAVEN’T BEEN VERY EF FECT IVE IN SHAR ING WITH THE PUB LIC WHAT THEY HAVE CON CLUD ED.” EDWARD MAIBACH, DIR EC TOR OF THE CEN TER FOR CLI MATE CHANGE COMMUNICATIONS
three seats could lose them the Senate in November. Keystone could tip the balance in oil states such as Louisiana, where the Democrat senator faces a tight race. Whether the fate of a Canadian oil pipeline would deter mine an election in parochial America is doubtful. But why take the chance?
In the end, a delay doesn’t both er environ ment al ists. “Every day that the pipeline is not built is good for the environment,” Ross Hammond, a sen ior cam paign er for Friends of the Earth, said in an interview. “What counts is his final decision and I believe he’ll deny the per mit.”
This is no easy pol it ic al game.
The pipeline has assumed the role of the big bad guy of climate change in a country that still enter tains powerful doubts about the issue. That was made clear yet again by an Associated Press poll released Tuesday — Earth Day — showing that only 33 per cent of Americans are very con fi dent that the Earth’s tem peratures are rising because of man- made greenhouse gases.
An even larger percentage — 38 — have no confidence in the science at all and the rest are only “some what con fident” the science is accurate.
Ed ward Maibach, dir ector of the Center for Climate Change Communications at George Mason University, whose polls mir ror these results, blames the in abil ity of scientific experts to clarify their mes sage enough to penetrate the fog of disinformation.
“Over half of Amer icans don’t know what the experts have concluded, which means in my opinion the experts haven’t been very ef fect ive in sharing with the public what they have con clud ed,” he said.
“People are told there is a lot of dis agree ment among the scientists and therefore it would be ir responsible to take action when the science isn’t yet settled.”
Obama is a climate change pres ident. Every state ment he has ever made on the issue indicates that were he not saddled with a divided Congress and pub lic, he would have long ago launched a national cli mate pro gram pro moting clean energy and sidelining fos sil fuels, par ticu larly the really dirty kind such as heavy oil from the oilsands. This would have meant an early “No” on Keystone XL, as one ad min is tration con sultant said in an interview.
So, Obama is caught playing a political game over a vital issue that demands immediate action.
The irony is that Maibach’s research also shows that politicians who campaign on climate change action “are more likely to keep their job next time than lose it.”
But clearly Obama has decided there’s just no winning on this issue right now.
Whatever happens in November’s elections, he will be free to make a quick Keystone decision, own it and not burden his successor with it.
Keystone supporters should take no comfort in that. Given Keystone’s enor mous symbolic significance, his de ci sion will be a de fin ing mo ment. As he heads for the exit, Keystone like ly will be his ultimate message to the world — and to Canada’s Conservative government — on climate change.
If he is true to his word, it’s hard to believe that the decision will be any thing other than “No.”