The best Tory leader might be Ambrose

Judging by the tone of recent Conservative commentary, a bright future lies ahead for the party Stephen Harper built. Behind the scenes, however, some Tories are less than thrilled with the menu of leadership hopefuls now on offer — leading some to speculate a draft-Ambrose campaign may be in the cards.

Rona Ambrose, though she now holds all the authority and privileges of the leader of the Opposition, including the official residence at Stornoway, gained that office with the proviso that she not be a candidate for the permanent leadership. But that is not necessarily set in stone. A draft-Ambrose movement, were it to yield an amendment in the party’s rules, could change this. Judging from what I’ve heard from some Conservatives recently, including at the recent Manning Centre Conference in Ottawa, such a move would not be unwelcome.

The reason? He’s getting lots of attention already today so I’ll just say this: His initials are J.T. He’s in Washington this week, having a fantastic time with his friend Barack Obama.

In a candid chat recently, one Conservative insider walked me through the pluses and minuses of the various leadership hopefuls whose names are most often bandied about, though none have officially registered to run. Leading the pack is former senior minister and party cofounder Peter MacKay, whom polls show will immediately become a front-runner should he enter, as he is widely expected to do.

MacKay is affable, handsome and articulate. But he is no longer the fresh-faced youngster on the political scene. His record in cabinet was mixed. As Minister of Justice, he presided over a series of social-conservativeleaning bills that seemed pre-destined to run aground at the Supreme Court. At Defence, he stickhandled the F- 35 fighter procurement deal that went supernova in 2012. It was Ambrose, you may remember, who was tasked with picking up the pieces.

Jason Kenney, Harper’s longtime minister-of-everything, remains a very influential force within the party. He is smart and terrifically industrious. But I’ve spoken to a series of senior Conservatives who say they can’t see him as leader, and certainly don’t see him seriously challenging Trudeau in 2019. Appearances and tone count; these two may have too much of a Kennedy- Nixon vibe going for such a faceoff to work in the Tories’ favour.

Tony Clement is competent, indefatigable, and has been a force in conservative circles since the Unite The Right days in the late ’90s. At Treasury Board, he pulled off the near-impossible; taking money away from other departments without becoming universally despised. But he suffers from some of the same drawbacks as Kenney; in a head- to- head contest with the Dauphin, he’ll look like the stodgy sedan next to the flashy convertible, though Clement is just 55.

Lisa Raitt has often been mentioned as a potential next leader. Consistently during the Harper era, when something fair-minded was heard to be uttered from the Tory side, she was its source. Like Ambrose, Raitt always steered clear of the worst of the previous administration’s stick-in-the-eye tactics. Her roots in the party, however, are deemed to be relatively shallow. That’s code for the Milton, Ont., MP having little chance of picking up the support she’d need in Alberta and north-central Ontario.

Kellie Leitch has been floated as a potential candidate; she suffers from the same problem as Raitt — a low profile in the ridings — and additionally is held back by her role in the “barbaric cultural practices” press conference with former minister Chris Alexander, widely deemed the nadir of the 2015 campaign. Leitch could run for the prospect of elevation in a future cabinet; the chances of anyone putting up the money this race will require — with a spending cap of $5 million, plus a $100,000 ante — for such considerations seems slim.

Michelle Rempel has smarts and charm to spare and could offer a youthful, appealing presence to compete with Trudeau’s. Rempel has been very noncommittal about whether she wants the job, however. At 36, she has room to bide her time. James Moore, a perennial presence in this discussion, has let it be known he will not be a candidate. Former Veterans minister Erin O’Toole, at this stage, is still an outrider, though at 43 he has room to build.

All of which brings us back to Ambrose, MP for the Edmonton- area riding of Sturgeon River-Parkland. Known to be a personal friend of Stephen and Laureen Harper, her roots in the party are rock-solid. She’s a moderate social conservative — perhaps enough to mollify that portion of the party base. But her persona and approach are as engaging as Harper’s were cold and aloof. A youthful 46, Ambrose offers an attractive foil to Trudeau’s glamour; yet, friends say, she’s disciplined, organized and steady in a crisis.

Could Ambrose defeat Trudeau in a general election? Of course that would depend on events. The more pertinent question is whether any other Tory prospect could conceivably do better than she could. As this race begins, that is entirely unclear.