‘FOR NOW, HIS GENIALITY DISCOUNTS HIS GRAVITAS,’ AND ANDREW SCHEER HAS MANY DIFFERENT VIEWPOINTS TO PULL TOGETHER IN THE TORY PARTY, BUT HE HAS THE BRAINS AND PERSONALITY TO DO IT.
Politics, unlike physics, is not governed by immutable laws. The unexpected, such as Andrew Scheer’s victory as the new Conservative Party leader Saturday, is always possible.
But if any such statutes do apply, it is perhaps Newton’s third law of motion — for every action, there’s an equal and opposite reaction.
There are many upsides to Scheer’s election, but his elevation creates an equal number of challenges.
The new leader was once elected Speaker of the House of Commons by his colleagues because of his amiable, consensual style. It was those qualities that got also him elected Saturday — his main selling point was his ability to keep the party together and present a positive message at the next election.
Candidates like Kellie Leitch risked reducing a decade of multicultural outreach to ashes, in reckless pursuit of the leadership. By contrast, Scheer was cautious to the point of catatonia — concentrating on existing policy that everyone already agreed upon and offering very little that was bold or new.
His election vindicates the wisdom of being a man for all seasons — he picked up 57 per cent of the points won by social conservative Brad Trost but also 59 per cent of Erin O’Toole’s support, much of which came from “moderates” like Lisa Raitt and Michael Chong.
That is good for party unity, but this is where Newton’s law kicks in. The social conservatives in the party will, quite rightly, be emboldened by Scheer’s election. He won because they voted in large numbers and chose him as their champion, at least after Trost and Pierre Lemieux were eliminated.
You may not agree with them on life issues — and I don’t — but they have earned the right to be heard.
This is going to create internal tensions — Lisa Raitt, who should be given a prominent role to reassure female voters that they are not at the back of the bus, is just one who might find it hard to serve in a party that openly advocates reopening the abortion debate.
Scheer has said he has no intention of doing so, but he is also openly pro-life. It’s the reason he is now leader.
Beyond the internal debate, the rise of the so-cons is a gift to the Liberals. Adam Vaughan, the Toronto Liberal MP, was at the leadership convention and leaped on the return of the “old Reform Party” just minutes after Scheer’s victory was announced.
Stephen Harper’s answer to this dilemma was to whip his MPs hard. Scheer found himself refereeing the issue as Speaker, when he was forced to pronounce on whether MPs could defy the party whips and make prolife members’ statements.
Scheer’s affability was an asset to his election, but he is going to have to assert his authority quickly — or find someone else who will “put a bit of stick about,” as the original House of Cards had it.
Another upside of Scheer’s election is his relative youth — seven years younger than Justin Trudeau.
Most prime ministers who win a majority find themselves re-elected four years later. The Liberals could yet make a total hash of things and defeat themselves.
But, if he’s smart (and he is), Scheer will look to add to his seat count in 2019 and move in for the kill four years later, when he will be the grand old age of 44. Short of a meltdown in 2019, it is a fair bet to say that one day, Andrew Scheer will be prime minister of Canada.
The downside of his age is that Canadians who gave his victory speech a cursory five-second glance may form the impression that he is too callow to be prime minister at the moment. His self-deprecating style — he kicked off the campaign by saying he didn’t like talking about himself — will evolve and mature but, for now, his geniality discounts his gravitas.
A final example of Newton’s law in action was Scheer’s strategy to concentrate on policies that Conservatives could agree upon. It was heavy on a commitment to repeal the Liberal carbon tax and balance the budget within two years. But the opacity of his policy platform means there is no clear picture of what the Scheer Conservatives are going to be all about.
What will the new Conservative Party’s policy on climate change be under Scheer? How will it balance the budget and generate growth? The most legitimate knock is that his only job outside politics was six months working as an insurance broker. He was elected at the age of 25 and has been a professional politician ever since.
Fortunately for the party, Scheer’s greatest strength outweighs his weaknesses.
The leadership race highlighted that the Conservative Party has evolved to the point where it can survive defeats. The party is flush with cash, members and enthusiasm.
Other candidates and caucus members have ideas and expertise that Scheer lacks and he will surely bring them into his shadow cabinet. There is no shortage of talent — Raitt, Chong, O’Toole, Maxime Bernier, Michelle Rempel, Candice Bergen, Tony Clement, Gerard Deltell, Pierre Poilievre and, yes, Brad Trost.
If he has the political skills to fashion a team of rivals, the Conservatives will be competitive in 2019 and irrepressible by the time the Liberals have really worn out their welcome four years later.
If much of what transpired over the weekend conformed to Newton’s third law, the success of Scheer’s Conservatives will be dictated by the first law — that objects will remain at rest unless compelled to move by an external force.
Scheer’s job is to build a serious, credible alternative to the Liberals and then wait patiently until voters decide to hurl them by the lapels from office.