THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND COLUMNIST ANDREW COYNE FINDS SOME VERY SUSPICIOUS POLITICAL CONSULTANTS WILLING TO GIVE CHRISTY CLARK SOME DETAILED POINTERS ABOUT HOW TO HOLD ON TO POWER.
How this letter came into my possession I do not know. I strongly suspect it is a fake. Even so, it may offer a glimpse into the thinking behind the premier’s statement Tuesday.
— Andrew Coyne MOLOCH, MAMMON & SCRATCH Political Consultants
May 29, 2017 The Premier’s Office Legislative Building, Victoria, B.C. Dear Premier Clark,
You have asked us to advise you on the options available to you in the unusual circumstances in which you now find yourself, with a plurality but not a majority of the seats in the legislature, opposed by two parties who have declared they intend to defeat your government at the first opportunity, and to govern in its place if they can. We will begin with the obvious …
You are the premier. You remain premier until you resign or are defeated on a vote of confidence in the legislature. Only the legislature decides who governs British Columbia — not the pollsters, not the academics, not the media. You are under no obligation to surrender power before then, just because your opponents have announced they would like it. Nor should you. So long as you are premier, you control events. The moment you resign, you lose control — and your opponents begin to assume it. That said …
This is not about holding
onto power. There are two games going on at the same time here — one for control of the legislature, one for the support of the public. You cannot win the first: that much is now clear. But you can, if you play your cards right, win the second.
With that in mind, we recommend against any prolonged delay in recalling the legislature. A few weeks, fine, but not, as you might be tempted to do, over the summer. Neither do we recommend, in the event of defeat, asking the Lieutenant Governor to call new elections. You do not want to look like you are clinging to power, and in any event the LG is unlikely to accept your request.
To win power you must not seem to covet it unduly. Therefore you should advertise your readiness to risk defeat, indeed your humble acceptance of it should it come. But you should stand on the principle that it is the legislature that decides; that you will, as premier, meet the legislature, present a Throne Speech, and test its confidence. It is, after all, the same convention that permits the opposition parties to take power as a team, without having sought and won an electoral mandate on that basis.
To accept defeat will go against your every instinct as a politician. Why should you do so nevertheless? Because, as we shall soon discover … This situation is unlikely
to last. Whichever party attempts to govern, it will have only the most tenuous grip on power. The NDP-Green alliance has a margin of just one seat, and will lose it the minute they choose a Speaker — the first order of business in any session — assuming he or she comes from their ranks. The Speaker only votes to break ties, and on any matter is bound by convention to vote to continue debate, or to preserve the status quo. That would certainly include matters of confidence, such as the vote on the Throne Speech.
For this reason, as others have suggested, it may be that no candidate for Speaker comes forward — certainly you are under no obligation to provide one from the Liberal side — leading to impasse: no business of any kind can be done without a Speaker in the chair. National Post columnist Colby Cosh has pointed out that past such impasses, in PEI in 1858 and Newfoundland in 1908, were resolved by dissolution. So we may be plunged back into an election before the Throne Speech has even been read. Assume, however, some way is found around this conundrum. Instability is still the likely order of things. There is first the matter of the solidity of the opposition alliance.
An agreement “for four years”? We’ll see about that. The two leaders don’t like each other. The two parties don’t trust each other. And, well, political promises tend to have short shelf lives.
Whatever the two party leaders may have pledged, moreover, they will have to enforce it upon every one of their members: if even one were to defect, on any matter of confidence, it would be enough to bring the government down. That gives individual members a lot of power — and people with power tend to want to use it, or even abuse it.
The point is, in a legislature this evenly divided, nothing is certain. Circumstances can change. People can die, or resign, or cross the floor. Even assuming it is not aborted at the outset by the Speaker’s Paradox, the likelihood of any government lasting the full four years — or even two — is vanishingly small. In which case … The next election campaign has already begun. You may not be able to escape defeat. But you can ensure you are defeated on your terms. Make this, therefore, a Throne Speech for the ages. It is your last, and best, chance to make your case to the public as premier. Use it.
Do not overdo it: it must look like a credible program of government, not a deathbed conversion or series of bribes. The point is not to avoid defeat, but to turn it to your advantage. If, that is, the opposition parties are determined to vote against it, make it as uncomfortable for them as possible. Make it seem as if it is they, and not you, who are lusting for power. While you are working hard on the people’s business, they are consumed with political games. That sort of thing. Finally …
Don’t go anywhere. If the situation is as unstable as we think it is, the party will need to be ready to contest an election at any moment. It cannot afford a divisive, debilitating leadership race, or the months of breathing room it would allow the NDP-Green alliance to consolidate its grip on power. You remain the party’s best electoral asset, but more than that, the party needs continuity and experience in the leader’s office, in the political and parliamentary wrangling to come. The time to go is after a clear victory or defeat, not while both are in the balance.
Good luck. Our invoice is attached. Sincerely, Nick Scratch, Director, MM&S