Next leader of federal NDP will set tone for 2019 election
The aftermath of the 2015 federal election created a panoply of potential paths forward for Canada’s federal parties.
Newly elected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau first had to decide whether to follow through on his campaign messages, or instead default to his party’s traditional path of campaigning from the left and governing from the right. And both national opposition parties faced important questions about their future direction and leadership.
But this year, the picture for 2019 has rapidly come into focus.
Trudeau has chosen to break his promise of a fair and proportional electoral system. And while that choice (among other glaring departures from his campaign message) has left voters with ample reason to distrust Trudeau, it has made clear that the ground rules from past campaigns will continue to apply.
The Conservatives have elected their new leader. And Andrew Scheer represents about as little change as possible from Stephen Harper — though his lack of established control over caucus and a divided membership may make the Conservatives’ internal dynamics more interesting than they’ve been before.
Finally, following the end of the Liberals’ honeymoon period, public opinion polling has settled back to the levels seen at the end of the 2015 campaign.
That leaves the NDP’s imminent leadership vote as the key variable which will affect the federal parties’ positioning for the next election and beyond.
Ontario MPP Jagmeet Singh has launched his campaign with impressive displays of support, media savvy and policy depth. And the latter point makes for a helpful contrast from the NDP’s previous two leadership races, where the perceived frontrunners largely stuck to existing party platforms instead of setting out their own vision.
Meanwhile, the MPs who have been in the race from the beginning have mostly fortified their own niches within the campaign — though the success of an unapologetic social-democratic campaign from U.K. Labour has given both Guy Caron and Niki Ashton a boost.
Caron looks to be making strides by combining strong opposition messaging (including a commitment to make electoral reform his first priority, which serves to highlight Trudeau’s duplicity) with policy to massively improve economic fairness.
And Ashton is pitching movement politics as an alternative to narrow and centralized political operations — which is now supported by the example of Labour’s mobilization of young voters.
Peter Julian continues to focus on an environmental theme which looks to appeal particularly strongly to British Columbia and Quebec voters — though it’s not clear that he’s been able to build much traction after being the first to launch his campaign.
And while Charlie Angus has likely been the candidate most affected by Singh’s broad positive themes, his skills as a storyteller and person-to-person campaigner still figure to keep him in the mix.
It’s difficult to make any predictions at this stage, particularly given the likelihood that down-ballot support will decide the outcome. But the identity of the winner could lead to dramatically different strategies going into the 2019 campaign.
Singh would figure to focus on a direct individual challenge to Trudeau as the face of Canadian progressivism. Ashton is oriented toward movement politics, including an effort to broaden the electorate. Caron and Julian appear most likely to focus on issue-based challenges to Trudeau and the Liberals in pursuit of left-leaning voters. And Angus may be the best positioned to mount a populist campaign aimed at both the Liberals and Conservatives.
For now, it’s NDP members who will vote on those options. And the choice figures to be the next decision point which will define our federal political scene for a long time to come.