Can the Liberals turf Trudeau? Not easily

Few formal ways to force out a party leader

IN THE WAKE OF JANE PHILPOTT’S RESIGNATION FROM CABINET, TRUDEAU’S MINISTERS AND CAUCUS ARE RALLYING ROUND HIM. BUT IF THEY DID WANT HIM GONE, THERE IS NO EASY WAY TO DO IT.

OTTAWA • Since Jane Philpott’s resignation from cabinet on Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s remaining ministers have rallied around him, declaring he still has their support. Many backbench MPs have also said they still have faith in the prime minister, despite the fallout from the SNC-Lavalin controversy. Still, there are some rumblings of uncertainty. On Tuesday morning, Toronto Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith told the CBC that he wants to hear more about the kind of pressure that was brought to bear on former attorney general Jody Wilson-Raybould to negotiate an agreement with the Quebec engineering giant that would have avoided a criminal prosecution on corruption charges.

“If in the end it’s found that the intervention was made for naked partisan gain and electoral gain, then that would cause me to lose some confidence,” he said. “I will say this inquiry is not complete, and I can imagine a situation where if it winds up in one place I’ll be very happy to run again, and if it winds up in another place, I may well find myself as a lawyer again instead.” Erskine-Smith and New Brunswick MP Wayne Long were the only two members of the Liberal caucus to vote with opposition parties last week calling for a public inquiry into the matter — a motion the Liberals defeated. After Philpott’s resignation, Long posted a statement on Twitter reiterating his call for “a full and transparent investigation.”

But even if a sizable chunk of the Liberal caucus loses faith in Trudeau, there is no formal mechanism in place for members of Parliament to oust their leaders following a loss of confidence, though that’s not to say it couldn’t happen. Here’s a breakdown of how the Liberals could theoretically turf Trudeau, why it’s so complicated, and how other countries do it differently.

Can the Liberal caucus fire Justin Trudeau?

Yes and no. In Canada, the three major parties conduct leadership reviews where the party membership votes on whether to endorse a leader or hold a leadership race. The NDP holds such votes at every convention, while the Liberals and Conservatives do so only after losing elections.

But until recently, there was no mechanism in place that allowed a caucus — not the full party membership — to vote out a leader whose performance was no longer up to scratch. Still, that doesn’t mean leaders aren’t ever shown the door by their own caucus — there are many examples of leaders bowing to internal demands that they resign. Former Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown stepped down last year in the wake of sexual misconduct allegations, facing heavy pressure from within his party. In 2014, under fire from her caucus and party brass, Alison Redford resigned as Alberta premier. Former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion likewise bowed to pressure and stepped down after the 2008 election.

“It becomes almost unbearable for a leader in that context to continue,” said William Cross, a professor of political science at Carleton University.

What about the Reform Act?

In 2013, Conservative MP Michael Chong introduced a private member’s bill known as the Reform Act, which passed in 2015. The bill laid out a mechanism by which a caucus would have the power to expel members, remove caucus chairs, replace leaders and name interim leaders. It states that if 20 per cent of a caucus calls for a leadership review, the caucus will vote on the leader by secret ballot.

But the bill contained a provision that required each party to choose whether or not to adopt the new rules after each election. After the 2015 election that brought the Liberals to power, neither the Liberals nor the NDP held those votes. “They did not follow the law,” Chong said. The Conservatives voted to adopt some of the new measures, but not the provision related to leadership reviews. So, as it stands, the Liberal caucus would have to use the same old pressure tactics if it wanted Trudeau out. Chong said the advantage of his bill is that it set out a clear process that members of Parliament could use. “The rules would be clear. Whenever rules are not clear, people are hesitant to use them,” he said. “Ambiguity creates indecision.”

Aren’t prime ministers turfed all the time in Australia?

Yes. Other countries with Westminster systems of government have adopted clear procedures for ejecting leaders who’ve lost the confidence of their parties. In Australia, leadership “spills,” in which a caucus triggers a leadership vote, have become common. There have been eight, in fact, since 2010, and some argue the mechanism is being abused. British Prime Minister Theresa May also had to survive a confidence vote by her caucus last December. Cross said he believes Canadian parties should have the right to develop their own rules, rather than conforming to legislation like Chong’s bill. He believes it makes sense for party members to decide to elect or remove a leader, but said caucus should have the ability to trigger a leadership review that would then go to the membership.

THERE IS NO FORMAL MECHANISM IN PLACE FOR MPS TO OUST THEIR LEADERS.