Lake Erie shoreline at risk: climate change study

Stronger storms and depleting lake ice levels due to climate change will make Lake Erie’s shoreline increasingly vulnerable to flooding and erosion in the coming decades, Chatham-kent’s Lake Erie study says.

“We recognize that we are in a state of emergency,” said Pete Zuzek of Zuzek Inc.

The study — co-commissioned by Natural Resources Canada’s Climate Change Adaptation Platform, the Municipality of Chatham-kent, and the Lower Thames Valley Conservation Area — was conducted by researchers at Zuzek Inc. and the University of Waterloo.

Zuzek outlined the study’s grim findings to a group of 65 area residents in Erieau on Wednesday. It was the first of four sessions on Wednesday and Thursday. Climate models showed the extent of how the lake and shoreline have changed — and will continue to in the future.

Zuzek presented a graph showing how Lake Erie water levels are at an all-time high. He said the levels have cycled through highs and lows, but the graph shows levels growing since the early 1990s.

Zuzek said lake levels could rise even higher or drop 1.5 metres under the historical low levels of the 1930s Dust bowl.

He said climate change is impacting the lake process, which will lead to shoreline issues.

With the current amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere causing the current level of warming, winter temperatures will rise by six to eight degrees Celsius later in the century, according to the study’s projections.

“We’re going to go into a period where the lake is ice-free all the time,” said Zuzek.

With reduced to no lake ice, Zuzek said there is nothing to slow waves that cause shoreline flooding and erosion.

The study shows 4.5-metre waves forming over the lake’s deepest levels. Zuzek said climate change is creating more intense lake storms, meaning higher waves and more erosion power.

The study says wave energy could increase from 70 to 120 per cent, which would double the rate of erosion.

Zuzek used images of Rondeau Provincial Park to show how the barrier beach has receded by 650 metres over the past 150 years.

The study found that more erosion at the park could put fishing, drinking water and the endangered Fowler toad at risk.

The study identifies Erie Beach, Erie Shore Drive, Rose Beach Line and Shrewsbury as areas that will be increasingly vulnerable to flooding in the future.

“The risks that you’re facing right now and these challenges are only going to get worse,” Zuzek said.

The study also looks at impacts on specific buildings, residential lots and road stretches. It says flood waters could affect 140 Erie Shore and 100 Erieau buildings at a cost of $18 million and $13 million respectively.

The presentation aimed to give the public the facts and put the situation in perspective.

Zuzek said mitigating actions are complex. The presentation also included a question-and-answer session and group discussions on long term solutions.

The Canadian government declared a climate emergency on Monday.