The Turkish invasion of Syria: What happens now?
ISIL ESCAPES FEARED IN EXPECTED CHAOS
WHAT WILL THE TURKISH OFFENSIVE LOOK LIKE?
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has proposed a large-scale offensive across about 480 kilometres of the Turkish-syrian border to drive back the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey considers a terrorist group, and create a “safe zone” for Syrian refugees.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE ‘SAFE ZONE’?
Turkey hopes to move more than one million Syrian refugees into the safe zone once it pushes back the SDF.
That would help Erdogan fulfil domestic political pledges to reduce the number of Syrians in Turkey. It also has the strategic benefit of creating a buffer zone of Syrian Arabs between the Kurds of north-east Syria and the Kurds of south-east Turkey.
Turkey says it will provide public services in areas it occupies, but many fear that Kurdish populations in Syria will be displaced and the area will be unable to support so many refugees.
WHAT HAPPENS TO ISIL PRISONERS IN SYRIA?
Western officials are deeply concerned that the fighting will cause chaos that could allow ISIL prisoners to escape. Some of the prisons holding ISIL suspects may be seized by advancing Turkish forces, but there is little chance of an orderly handover from the Kurds to the Turks who are attacking them.
Other prisons further south will stay in Kurdish hands. However, there may also be problems there as the SDF is likely to pull its troops away from guard duties to defend its territory. The White House says Turkey will be responsible for all ISIL prisoners in the area.
WHAT WILL THE SDF DO NOW?
The SDF has vowed to fight against the Turkish offensive, but may decide that some tactical retreats are necessary rather than face a full-on assault. SDF fighters have proved themselves adept against ISIL, but they lack the heavy weaponry to confront Turkey’s military power, especially its air force.
Over the longer term, the SDF may decide it has no choice but to align itself more closely with the Assad regime. The two sides have many disagreements, but have a shared goal of keeping the Turks out of northeast Syria.
IS THIS FIRST TIME THE WEST HAS LET DOWN THE KURDS?
No, the Kurds feel they have been repeatedly betrayed. At the end of the First World War, the allies promised to create a Kurdish state amid the remains of the Ottoman Empire, but later reneged.
The West set up a no-fly zone over Kurdish areas of northern Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War, which allowed the Kurds to set up a semi-autonomous state. The Kurds tried to declare independence in 2017, but the U.S. stood by while Iraqi forces crushed their independence bid.