NFL parity does have its limits
First-round byes usually wind up meaning a ticket to playoff success
WASHINGTON When talking about NFL parity, you really ought to leave the playoffs out of the conversation. That’s where this any-given-sunday notion dies. An NFL season is like the NCAA tournament, teasing you early with unpredictability, only to verify what you already knew in the end.
Similar to any other sport, the dominant NFL teams emerge, remain consistent throughout the year and when it’s money time, they tend to pummel everything cute and unlikely and magical. It has been almost a decade since a wild card made it to the Super Bowl. The last one was the 2010 Green Bay Packers, who went from last playoff qualifier to champion as Aaron Rodgers started his legend.
It has been seven years since a team outside of the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC played in the Super Bowl. The message for contenders has been quite clear of late: No bye, goodbye. The last team that didn’t have a bye and won three playoff games en route to the Super Bowl: the 2012 Baltimore Ravens.
Could this be the year that a true wild card — or at least a division winner forced to play in the wild-card round — breaks through again? As the 2019 season progresses toward its last dash, I am following the action with that question in mind.
Why does it matter? Because it will help make better sense of what’s happening right now, with this fresh crop of Mvp-calibre quarterbacks emerging, the perception that a few stars are near the end and the belief that the season has revealed quality depth among its contenders. There is the team that has dominated forever (New England), the team that has been on a championship path for multiple seasons (New Orleans), the team that needs to prove they are more than a novelty (Kansas City), as well as teams that have resurfaced in exciting fashion (Baltimore, San Francisco) and teams with winning pedigrees and quarterbacks you cannot dismiss (Seattle, Green Bay).
Most of the teams that ran away early are, predictably, coming back to the field. The Patriots’ defence is legit, but their offence is struggling. The Saints were rolling, but their road is getting tougher. The 49ers finally lost a game, but they just destroyed the Packers 37-8 on Sunday night. If you judge squads purely by point differential, the Patriots, 49ers and Ravens have outscored their opponents by at least 169 points, which is absurd. They have a combined record of 29-4. Yet the Patriots have offensive issues to fix, and there’s little longevity attached to the current success of the 49ers and Ravens.
But the issue isn’t a lack of trust in those teams. The contenders without the gaudy point differentials are just as impressive because they seem to have the toughness, the versatility and the quarterback play to match up with anyone. The Seattle Seahawks are the perfect example. They’re 9-2 and they’ve outscored opponents by just 29 points, which usually would indicate they are not as good as their mark. But the Seahawks are 6-0 on the road and quarterback Russell Wilson is engaged in an epic MVP competition with the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson.
The Seahawks are currently the No. 5 seed, trailing 10-1 San Francisco by a game in the NFC West. Both teams have tough schedules remaining, so winning out seems unlikely. But it’s quite possible that the Seahawks, who beat the 49ers 27-24 in a wild overtime Monday night game two weeks ago, will host their rival in the regular-season finale to decide both the division and the No. 1 seed in the conference.
There’s a good chance that the Seattle-san Francisco loser will be the No. 5 seed with a record in the neighbourhood of 12-4. This is where a wild card could make a run. The Seahawks have Wilson at his best and a hard-edged team that can win anywhere. And if the 49ers slip to a wild card, you’re talking about the league’s top defence and its most diverse rushing attack disguised as an underdog.
Despite their poor performance against San Francisco, the Packers (8-3) are lurking with Rodgers and an interesting mix of talent that could come together down the stretch. Green Bay is the current No. 3 seed, but Minnesota (8-3), which played in the NFC title game two years ago, is right there. The reigning NFC champion Los Angeles Rams (6-5) remain in the post-season discussion. And we haven’t mentioned Dallas (6-5), which has plenty of top-end talent but no signature victories.
The AFC isn’t nearly as deep, but if Kansas City (7-4) remains outside of the top two, the Chiefs are capable of making a run. If Patrick Mahomes has fully recovered from his kneecap injury and the defence can contribute just a little, the Chiefs aren’t much different from last season’s squad, which took the Patriots to overtime in the AFC Championship Game.
And if you’re looking for more of an AFC dark horse, there is Houston, with Deshaun Watson playing at an MVP level. The Texans seem to be the annual Team That Could Make A Run But Doesn’t. But Watson shouldn’t be dismissed. The AFC doesn’t have a formidable collection of wild-card contenders, but as projected non-bye division winners, Kansas City and Houston are interesting.
I’ve always hated tournament byes, especially when home-field advantage is already a perk. While it’s a great reward for regular season excellence and makes the entire season matter, it allows the heavyweights to be too heavy. It used to be that we would worry a great team would lose its momentum during the bye. In recent years, however, that hasn’t been much of a factor. The challenge of winning one extra game has become insurmountable.
Contrary to perception, there are limits to NFL parity. Since 1970, when the NFL first had a wild-card round, 10 true wild cards have made it to the Super Bowl. Six won it all. So, for the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in each conference, the road has always been difficult. Recently, it has been upgraded to impossible. The non-bye division winners, seeds No. 3 and No. 4, are a safer bet. But they don’t succeed as frequently as you’d think.
The Washington Post