CAR OF THE FUTURE
Its look from the outside may not be radically different than what you see today, but make no mistake: The car of the future will be a different beast, a rolling computer whose function and guts are already being reshaped by much of the same digital technology that revolutionized communications
Robinet sees a future with replaceable exterior car shells. As automakers move to new and lighter materials, it allows for more customization of the car’s exterior.
“People will get very creative with designs and colours,” said Robinet.
“With the electric platforms expected to be more flexible and to last two to 21/2 times the current life cycle (250,000 to 320,000 km) you can change the hat (body) from a minivan to an SUV.”
While vehicles will grow sleeker and perhaps a little lower, the external looks of vehicles won’t likely deviate much from traditional concepts in the short term.
However, what you can’t see in the vehicle will undergo radical redesign. Embedded sensors and cameras will feed the ravenous appetites of the electronic systems that control them.
“The electronics in the car are completely changing,” said Grant Courville, vice-president, products and strategy for Blackberry QNX.
“It’s really what that (consolidated electronic systems) will allow or provide to consumers that they’ll notice.”
The sophisticated electronics will allow for over-air app updates to the car’s systems similar to smartphones.
The advanced software will increase opportunities for aftermarket purchases of car features.
Technology will automatically make you aware of a faster way home due to traffic, sense whether you’re drowsy and react with prompts or notify you of a wine tasting at a local vineyard en route.
“I think the consumer will have a much closer relationship with the automaker,” Courville said.
“That’s the other reason automakers are jumping in with both feet and taking on more software and electronics. They want to own that relationship.”
The OEMS may also retain ownership of your car, leasing it to you instead. That way they can legally control a vehicle that will likely need significant software and hardware updates after a couple of years.
The cybersecurity of those systems is also of paramount importance to automakers, suppliers and consumers.
Blackberry’s reputation for cybersecurity makes it a major player in the auto industry because of its secure operating systems.
The company’s QNX operating system now guides some 150 million vehicles worldwide. In November, Hyundai announced the QNX system would grace its advanced-driving and autonomous vehicle platforms.
Courville said Ontario’s rapidly growing tech and software sectors position it well to capitalize on the auto sector’s rebirth.
“They realize the innovation, differentiation and monetization to be made is all around the electronics and software of the car,” Courville said.
“It’s a complete shift.”
The masses of data cars gather present new revenue opportunities.
According to a study by the Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research (CAR), new mobility technology will account for 40 per cent of auto industry profits by 2035.
“Your vehicle has more capacity than your cellphone,” said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association.
“Your car on the road is interacting with every other car on the road, every smart traffic signal and hydro pole and smart highways.
“Who owns the data? That’s the debate.”
Volpe added the data could not only serve commercial purposes, but could help machine learning, allowing cars to educate themselves. “We see a lot of companies talking about 2025 or 2035 in being able to sell reliably vehicles that have a bunch of these crazy features,” Volpe said. “To what proportion and volume is up to the consumer.”
Despite rapid advances in technology, many experts say we’ll have to wait some time before driverless vehicles arrive.
Though electronics can see and react quicker than humans, compute platforms are primitive in comparison to the human brain’at quickly processing and making correct decisions with a vast array of driving situations.
“The fully automated vehicle is a few decades away, Level 5, and there’s a lot of investment and co-operation that has to occur,” Courville said.
“There’s a tremendous amount of regulation and standardization that’s gotta occur for these things (AV) to become reality.
“Government will have a big role in this.”
Already autonomous Level 2 and 3 features such as advanced cruise control, rear-view cameras, lane assist, blind-spot alerts and collision avoidance braking are becoming commonplace.
According to CAR, automakers spent US$5.5 billion on autonomous driver assist systems in 2018 and that’s projected to increase to US$36 billion in 2025.
Volpe said every major automaker has the capability of producing a Level 5 autonomous vehicle today.
What automakers don’t know is the acceptable level of risk to society, governments and the legal system.
“Where the milk gets in the coconut is are you releasing a vehicle whose systems failure rate for all intents and purposes is zero or one incident per millions,” Volpe said.
“The restricting factor is how perfect will that technology operate in the real world. If it doesn’t, the lawyers will say forget it.”
Borroni-bird said it’s possible we’ll see autonomous vehicles in a geo-fenced environment, without too many pedestrians and good infrastructure in the near future.
“L4 is what Waymo is doing right now (in Chandler, Ariz.) and it’s geo-fenced,” Borroni-bird said.
“That’s possible (in two or three years) in the most benign environment possible. L4 in a more challenging environment, like Manhattan, will be 10 years or more away.”
Borroni-bird urges caution in introducing autonomous vehicles.
He believes cities must get ahead of the auto and technology industries or suffer a repeat of last century’s car-dominated urban planning.
“Technology creates tools that can be used to help, but it can also make things worse,” Borroni-bird said. “People need to be really thinking about public policy and technology together.
“Whenever you make mobility easier, you make congestion worse.”
Jonathan Azzopardi, past-president of the Canadian Association of Mold Makers and president of Tecumseh’s Laval Tool, said autonomous vehicles, reduced ownership and ride sharing will reshape more than just the auto industry.
A CAR study estimates by 2030 shared electric vehicles will account for 20 per cent of all vehicles sold and 25 per cent of all passenger miles driven.
“Imagine cities without parking spaces, houses without garages, vehicles without steering wheels,” Azzopardi said.
“The interaction between humans and the automobile is going to drastically change. I’d compare it to us moving from a rural to an urban society.
“That’s how big the change is we’re looking at.”
Automakers are jumping in with both feet and taking on more software and electronics. They want to own that relationship.