Looking for local leadership on the novel coronavirus

This was Dr. Jeff Cohen at Hotel-dieu Grace Healthcare on Thursday, addressing the novel coronavirus:

“It’s very important to understand that we have to get ahead of this virus,” he said.

If we don’t, he warned, “it’s going to be too late. We don’t know where this virus is going. We do not know how long it’s going to persist, how long it’s going to circulate, how many people it will affect and infect.

“It is quite potentially devastating.”

And this was Dr. Wajid Ahmed, Windsor and Essex County’s top public health official, shortly after: “We want to assure that there is no case, and there is nothing that people should be worrying about.”

Chatham-kent has no confirmed cases of the virus, either. But its top public health official declared a local emergency Friday and issued orders closing private schools, in addition to public schools and daycare centres, banning gatherings of more than 250 people and dictating self-isolation for everyone up to age 17 who has travelled outside Canada, including to the United States.

“It is imperative that we work together and do what we must, now,” Dr. David Colby said,

“to ensure that we do not put ourselves in a position where increased and, quite frankly, impossible demands are placed on our health-care system in weeks to come.

“The risk for the amplification or super-spreading within the community or a health-care setting would be devastating.”

In Windsor on Friday, while everything from schools to jury trials to sports shut down, Ahmed left the decisions up to the city.

“Municipalities can make decisions based on what they feel is important,” he said.

So Adventure Bay will remain open. So will March Break day camps, community centres.

“If we’re replacing schools with another avenue to congregate, we’re defeating the purpose,” said Windsor Regional Hospital CEO David Musyj, citing Ontario’s chief medical officer of health Dr. David Williams, who has pointed to COVID-19 cases in children and the need to practise social distancing “as much as possible.”

The vacuum created by Ahmed leaves organizations like the Windsor Symphony Orchestra and organizers of events like the Hospice gala and First Robotics tournament to decide themselves whether to cancel their events. (They did cancel them.)

This is what the Windsor-essex County Health Unit, the region’s public health office, is trained to do: respond to outbreaks like these and contain them. Ahmed is the expert. He should be leading this.

But like his response to the opioid crisis, our medical officer of health seems to be missing in action. He expressed more urgency about adding fluoride to drinking water.

“Unfortunately, Dr. Ahmed has downplayed this totally,” one frustrated health-care provider said.

“He doesn’t appreciate that once you’re in it, it’s too late to prepare.”

This isn’t the Black Death, but it’s not just the common cold or even the flu.

The mortality rate is estimated to be as high as 3.4 per cent. Some with the virus won’t develop symptoms. Most who do will experience only mild symptoms and recover. But vulnerable people — the elderly and those with compromised health — face a real threat.

We may not have a confirmed case yet, but this is a pandemic. It’s spreading rapidly around the world. It’s coming. An estimated 30 to 70 per cent of Canadians will be infected. We can’t stop it, but we can slow it, “flatten the curve,” so our chronically pressured health-care system isn’t overwhelmed.

Another reason Chatham-kent declared a local emergency was to activate an “all-hands-ondeck approach” and redeploy staff where they’re needed most, Colby said.

But public health officials here appear overwhelmed by calls about the virus, a local health provider said.

People are complaining that they can’t get through.

The health unit is getting more than 500 calls a day about the virus, Ahmed said.

“Our call numbers are going through the roof, like we’ve never seen in our history,” he said. “We’re trying our best to get to those calls.”

Officials are trying to bring in staff from other programs to help answer calls, he said.

The situation is extraordinarily fluid, Ahmed emphasized. “Every minute, there’s more information coming in.”

So will the health unit conduct daily public briefings to keep people informed?

“We’re definitely considering, given the heightened anxiety in the community, that we would like to provide some concrete information to the public, and you may see that in the coming days,” he said.

But Ahmed doesn’t want to overwhelm the community or cause more anxiety, he added.

Just like you can’t have too much caution, you can’t have too much clear, consistent communication telling people what we’re potentially facing and reinforcing how to prepare for it. Being over-prepared will unquestionably be better than the opposite.

And people need to feel confident that someone is in charge.

Because this is probably just the start.