Rural employment rebounding, but tourism, hospitality hurting

Employment in rural Ontario rose 2.5 per cent in May, marking a stronger rebound than in the province’s cities, new figures show.

Still, employment in rural and small towns in the province — hammered by the COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns — is 12.2 per cent below the expected May employment rate, according to findings released by the Rural Ontario Institute (ROI).

“The rural rebound has been a little bit better than the urban rebound,” said Norman Ragetlie, the ROI’S executive director.

“That’s likely a factor of the kind of sectors that we have in the rural economy as opposed to the urban economy,” he said. “Some of the seasonal employment in agriculture is picking up, so that accounts for much of it.”

Employment in urban Ontario only rose 0.6 per cent from April to May.

ROI’S summary pulls data from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey. It measures employment in large urban centres, which include cities with a population of 100,000 or more, where at least half live in an urban core.

Rural and small towns fall outside of those regions.

Ragetlie said the modest uptick in rural employment doesn’t paint the full picture, noting many specific industries are hurting more in rural settings than in their urban counterparts.

“The detail is kind of important depending on where you are,” he said. “If you’re in Grand Bend where you’re a seasonal tourist community, that hit in accommodation, food and retail really slammed you.”

Rural tourism jobs took the biggest hit, with information, culture and recreation seeing a 72 per cent decline in employment from the May average.

Accommodation and food services aren’t far off, seeing a 66 per cent drop-off, followed by a 44 per cent decline in jobs in transportation and warehousing.

About 16,000 jobs in retail and wholesale trade were also lost in rural Ontario from February to May.

“The sectoral impacts are experienced differently in different communities,” Ragetlie said. “In Aylmer, let’s say, where agriculture, construction and manufacturing sectors are doing pretty good, it’s less hard hit.”

These sector-specific variations point to the need for a tailored approach to rebounding the economy. “We do need to recognize that the experience isn’t universal,” he said.

Even just the recreation sector is complicated. Summer camps, for example, won’t see a rebound this year, but golf courses could actually come back quickly.

While music venues will likely stay closed for a while longer, galleries and museums could still see some of the season salvaged.

“It starts to break down into narrower sectors that might experience a bounce-back at a differential speed,” Ragetlie said.

“We’ll see downstream consequences for certain industries.”

Long-term, Ragetlie said it will be important to watch the impact of the pandemic on small businesses with one to five employees, an area that makes up a large field of jobs in rural Ontario.

“We still have a long way to go to recover the drop-off that happened so quickly,” Ragetlie said.

“The rebound is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel.”

Some of the seasonal employment in agriculture is picking up, so that accounts for much of it.