Lewis’s surge intriguing as race heats up

Lewis still trails candidates Peter Mackay and Erin O’toole in Facebook support (she has 18,561 likes, compared to 43,500 likes for Mackay and 60,000 for O’toole. Fourth candidate Derek Sloan has 7,866.)

But more and more people are engaging with her posts, which is as accurate a gauge of interest as we have.

The odds remain stacked against the 49-year-old Jamaican immigrant; a mother of two, who holds a Masters in Environmental Studies from York University and a PHD in international law from Osgoode Law School.

In the 10 leadership contests held by the three main national parties this century, only two were won by non-caucus members — Jack Layton for the NDP in 2003 and Jagmeet Singh in 2017. None were won by women.

In most cases, the race has gone to the candidate with the most money and caucus endorsements (Stéphane Dion for the Liberals in 2006 and Andrew Scheer for the Conservatives in 2017 were notable exceptions to this trend).

Lewis has put up a respectable showing in terms of fundraising ($447,646 in the first quarter, with six MP endorsements).

But those efforts have been dwarfed by Mackay, who raised more than $1 million in the same period and has the backing of 41 MPS. O’toole raised $784,997 and is supported by 36 MPS and one provincial premier, Jason Kenney.

But a confluence of events has given Lewis a real prospect of appearing on the final ballot.

The contest has been as predictable as the journey of the sun and moon — two former cabinet ministers dumping on Justin Trudeau and trading barbs with one another, comfortable in the belief that they are unassailable in their front-runner status.

But that may not be how it turns out.

“The more people hear about her (Lewis), the more curious they are becoming. And those who have taken a closer look say they have been impressed,” said one party veteran.

It is Lewis’s social media posts in the last week or so, as the Black Lives Matter debate has raged, that have made Conservatives sit up and take note. All of a sudden, the idea has blossomed that a Black woman from Toronto who expresses conservative ideas articulately and thoughtfully could be a leader of the Conservative party.

Even if she fails to win, her impressive entry on to the national stage suggests she will be an essential member of a future Conservative front bench, much as the late Jim Prentice became after he ran as a relative unknown for the Progressive Conservative leadership in 2003. The biggest impediment to her electoral success is her unabashed social conservatism.

Such leanings sank current leader Andrew Scheer. They may well scuttle Lewis’s ambitions too.

Yet she is frank about her beliefs.

“The only way to avoid being accused of having a hidden agenda is by not hiding it,” she said.

Her team points out her policies are deliberately restrained — banning sex-selective abortion; protecting women from coerced abortion; curtailing funding for international abortion, and, allowing free votes on issues of conscience.

Many pro-choice supporters see them as the thin end of a dangerous wedge. But views on life issues are nuanced and who would argue in support of coerced or sex-selective abortion?

Regardless, Lewis has expressed her willingness to engage critics, rather than shy away from them.

“I see an increasing trend on the political left in Canada to brand anyone who disagrees with them using extremist language intended to silence debates. I am ready to push back on this,” she said.

It is as if Lewis has found her public voice.

In the early going, her campaign team tried to shield her from media attention.

Yet she turns out to be a natural in front of a camera. A recent ad spot has her calling for Canadians to unite to rebuild the country. “What if COVID isn’t the end but just the beginning of a stronger, more self-sufficient Canada?” she asked.

She offered a similarly upbeat take on Black Lives Matter as an opportunity to make life better for everyone.

She dismissed the proposed actions put forward by activists.

“Posturing is good for photo ops and talk is good for Twitter likes. But it is time Canadians got something better than that,” she said.

It is frustrating then, that she proceeded to offer nothing more in terms of concrete policy solutions.

She has built momentum on being plain-spoken, pragmatic and unashamedly conservative. This moment in time is crying out for someone to come forward with real solutions.

Perhaps during the English language leadership debate this week, she will offer glimpses of how she sees a country in which many people feel they have become strangers. (The French language debate comes first but should perhaps be avoided by anyone with a love of the language of Moliere. Lewis only started learning this year).

Justin Trudeau’s campaign team were delighted to see Rona Ambrose take a pass on running for the leadership.

But if Ambrose promised to be bad news for the prime minister, Lewis has the potential to be an even more awkward proposition for a self-described feminist with a track record of dressing up in blackface.

History suggests the next leader of the Official Opposition will be a “normal” white, male MP.

But Lewis’s surge has made things interesting.