HOPEFUL SIGN IN COVID WAR
But top doc warns: `We still have a long way to go'
The COVID -19 pandemic's grip on Windsor-essex appears to be loosening, but the region's top doctor says it will take a few more weeks to know if the worst is truly over.
Local data presented by Dr. Wajid Ahmed on Friday showed drops in the region's infection rate, the number of COVID -19 tests coming back positive, and the prevalence of the SARS-COV-2 in the waste water system — all indicators that COVID-19 cases are stabilizing and may be on the decline.
“It's a starting trend, and I hope that the trend continues,” said the medical officer of health during the Windsor-essex County Health Unit's virtual news conference. “We have to recognize that we still have a long way to go.” With the region's transmission rate so high, “it will take longer to go down.”
Ahmed also reported 171 new cases of COVID-19 in the region, lower than the daily 200-plus cases recorded in recent weeks, but still staggeringly high when compared to the single-digit single-day increases from August to November.
Even if the number of new cases continues to decline, the high case rate in Windsor-essex — now the second-highest rate in the province — means it could be a month before “we start to feel more comfortable” in saying the worst is behind us, Ahmed said.
Although the local weekly infection rate has dropped from 348 cases per 100,000 people closer to 300, it's still sky high. By comparison, the threshold for Windsor-essex to enter “red zone” status under the province's COVID-19 response framework was only 40 cases per 100,000 people.
“The higher the case rates, the longer it will take us to get to a situation where we start to see some results based on those measures.”
The local per cent positivity for COVID-19 tests was 11.4 for the week ending Jan. 9, the most recent testing data from the province. That shows a dip from the week prior, when 12.3 per cent of tests performed were coming back positive.
Not all of the data presented Friday indicated good news. The fatality rate for local COVID-19 patients rose slightly to 2.3 per cent, matching the provincial average. In the last week, the local health unit reported 46 COVID -19 deaths, with seven of those deaths declared on Friday.
Five of those individuals were residents of long-term care and retirement homes: one woman in her 60s, two women in their 80s, and one man and one woman in their 90s.
A man in his 60s and another in his 70s who lived in the general community also lost their lives to the disease.
A total of 248 local residents have died as a result of COVID-19, with 111 of those deaths reported since Jan. 1.
The current effective reproduction of the virus — the R0, which represents how many new infections each person with COVID-19 is causing — is 0.99. That's a rise from last week, when the R0 was 0.91, meaning every COVID -positive person is transmitting the virus to slightly more people than they had been last Friday. However, the R0 chart presented by Ahmed shows significant day-today variation.
To date, 10,665 people in Windsor-essex have tested positive for COVID -19, with 2,721 of those cases active and being monitored by public health unit staff.
There are 121 people with COVID-19 in local hospitals, with 19 of them in ICU. An additional 183 patients have suspected cases of COVID-19 and are awaiting test results. Resolved cases number 7,696.
“I think it is important to appreciate and acknowledge the impacts some of the restrictions that are put in place and the compliance with these restrictions,” Ahmed said.
“When restrictions are in place, it helps to bring the case counts down.
While health unit staff are still working to catch up with a backlog of contact tracing, they have determined residents continue to contract COVID -19 fairly evenly from a variety of transmission sources, particularly from household contacts, community transmission and outbreaks.
“Anyone … you are meeting could potentially be Covid-positive,” he said.
“Anyone you are seeing, you have to go with that assumption based on the high rates of COVID and community transmission in our region.”
Forty-four locations across the region have active COVID -19 outbreaks, including 20 long-term care and retirement homes, 20 workplaces, one community location, and three units at Windsor Regional Hospital.
Windsor Regional Hospital is dealing with two outbreaks at Ouellette Campus (the 4M and 6E units) and one outbreak at Met campus (4N unit).
Notable among the long-term care and retirement home outbreaks, the health unit is reporting 13 additional infections among residents at Devonshire Retirement Residence in Windsor, bringing the total number of positive resident cases up to 30. Three staff members there have also tested positive.
A new outbreak has been declared at Regency Park, a longterm care home in Windsor where two staff members have tested positive.
An outbreak at Country Village in Woodslee has been rescinded. Three residents and three staff members there had contracted COVID-19 since an outbreak was declared on Dec. 8.
The number of infections at the remaining long-term care and retirement homes with active outbreaks in Windsor-essex has changed minimally since Thursday.
Seven farms have COVID-19 outbreaks (three in Leamington and four in Kingsville), as do six health-care and social-assistance locations in Windsor, Lakeshore, and Leamington.
There are also workplace outbreaks at three public administration settings, a food and beverage service and a manufacturing facility in Windsor, as well as a personal service setting in Lasalle and a retail trade business in Essex.
A community outbreak at Assisted Living Southwestern Ontario on Longfellow Avenue remains active.
Both recently declared school outbreaks at Queen Victoria Public School and Sandwich Secondary School were rescinded on Friday.
While the epidemiological links between cases involved in the school outbreaks were identified this week, Ahmed previously said those individuals tested positive some time ago and the outbreaks were technically over.