Voters divided on budget as Liberals losing converts

Would-be NDP, Bloc favour Liberals least

Ottawa•canadians are deeply divided on whether the country is headed in the “right direction” following the federal budget, with a number of would-be NDP, Green and Bloc Québécois voters saying they are now less likely to vote Liberal, according to a new poll.

Polling firm Leger conducted a survey of 1,504 Canadians following the Liberal budget, in which 40 per cent of respondents said Canada was on the “right track” in terms of handling the pandemic and reinvigorating the economy.

Another 36 per cent of respondents, many of whom live in western provinces, said the country is on the “wrong track.” The remainder either didn't know or didn't see the budget.

The Leger poll underscores a strong East-west divide in Canada, as the government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seeks to win over left-leaning voters with generous spending measures as Ottawa racks up hundreds of billions of dollars in new debts.

Those efforts appear to be having mixed results. Among respondents who intend to vote NDP in the next election, 23 per cent said they were now less likely to vote Liberal in the next election, as well as 28 per cent of Green voters and 30 per cent of Bloc voters.

“You certainly felt that this was designed to draw left-of-centre support,” said Andrew Enns, executive vice-president at Leger. “And it hasn't been a total failure. But I don't know if it's a slam dunk, either.”

Still, 15 per cent of wouldbe NDP voters said they were now “more likely to vote federal Liberals” following the budget, which included a range of policies like childcare and benefits for senior citizens that NDP voters tend to support.

Meanwhile, just six per cent of Green and two per cent of Bloc voters said they were more likely to vote Liberal following the budget. Seven per cent of Conservative voters said they were more likely to vote Liberal, compared with 40 per cent less likely.

Bloc supporters were the most likely to “never” vote Liberal, according to the poll, at 54 per cent of respondents, followed by Greens (42 per cent), Conservatives (39 per cent) and NDP (33 per cent).

On the question of whether Canada was on the right or wrong track following the budget, Alberta was most likely to say the country is on the wrong track, at 50 per cent. Atlantic Canada was most likely to say the country is on the right track, at 55 per cent, followed by Ontario at 43 per cent, and British Columbia at 41 per cent.

Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan were particularly critical of specific measures within the budget, especially $5.4 billion in loans for Air Canada, various loans for “net-zero” technologies and a $30-billion national daycare program.

“It shows the split within the Canadian population as to what they currently see as the imperatives,” Enns said. “Western Canadians, certainly the Prairie provinces, are less enamoured with the budget right now. It's a partisan time.”

Liberal voters, who made up 451 of total respondents, were most supportive of the childcare program at 88 per cent. Conservative voters, with 379 respondents, were by far the least supportive at 51 per cent.

A vast majority of people, 76 per cent, also said they were either “somewhat worried” or “very worried” about mounting deficits in the federal budget, which will come in around $354 billion in 2021, tapering off to $30 billion in 2026.

Just 19 per cent said they were “not very worried,” and the remaining five per cent “not worried at all.”

Enns said the results point to a growing consensus that rising debt loads could cause problems for Canada either now or for future generations. But much of the concern still lies on immediate concerns like economic stimulus or pulling out of the COVID-19 pandemic, he said.

“Canadians are pretty cognizant that there is going to be a day,” he said.

“But it doesn't actually manifest into the present right now.”

Worries about the deficit were high across all parties, aside from Liberal supporters, and was also closer to consensus among regions compared with other issues in the budget.

Albertans were most likely to be worried about deficits at 86 per cent, compared with Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 80 per cent. The province with the lowest concern was Quebec, still at 71 per cent. Concerns among would-be Liberal voters was the lowest at just 62 per cent.

A similar proportion of people, 80 per cent across all respondents, were concerned about higher taxes for their households in the years ahead. Just 20 per cent were “not very worried” or “not worried at all” about higher taxes.

As to the Liberal government's intentions for the budget, most view the document primarily as a “form the basis of a possible election platform later this year,” at 30 per cent.

The next highest, 24 per cent, believe the central aim of the Liberal government is to “stimulate the economy and create jobs.”

Among the lowest, 10 per cent of respondents said the primary objective was to “expand the role of government in the lives of Canadians.”