Xi has much to lose

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping only a month ago declared a “no-limits” friendship between Russia and China.

Now that relationship is being tested as Russia has allegedly asked China for military aid. China's response could be pivotal in resolving the crisis in Ukraine.

At present, China holds the upper hand in its relationship with Russia, as the nation best positioned to help Moscow by providing military aid and mitigating crippling global sanctions.

But assisting Russia in skirting sanctions — as China has done before for North Korea — would open them up to secondary sanctions and other punitive measures from the West.

Sanctions will hit global growth, including in China, which is already being squeezed by the pandemic and a trade war with the U.S.

Stabilizing growth is a challenge in a crucial year for Xi, who is set to preside over a major political meeting this autumn when he is expected to stay in power for an unprecedented third term of five years.

An early sign of Beijing's intention to comply with sanctions came last Thursday when China refused to supply Russian airlines with aircraft parts.

While China could still seek loopholes to support neighbouring Russia, it will be careful not to risk further damaging its relationships with the U.S. and Europe — ties that were already under strain.

Beijing won't want to lose whatever access it has left to advanced Western technology, especially as the U.S. has already warned that it would cut China off from crucial component parts, such as semiconductors, if it flouted sanctions against Russia.

Despite calling for negotiations from the start — including in a call Xi held with Putin just a day after Russia's invasion began — China hasn't publicly followed up with anything concrete, though there could be more going on behind the scenes.

China is “using all these phrases about peace, resolution, and Ukraine and Russia coming together, but we're not seeing any active, open role (with) China negotiating between the two sides,” said Maria Repnikova, a political scientist and professor at Georgia State University. “For now, it just seems a cautious, middle-of-the-road diplomatic manoeuvre.”

At stake is also China's global reputation — already hurt by its largely pro-russia stance on the invasion — as well as Xi's own legacy.

Xi invested personally in developing ties with Putin, a relationship that is now “proving to be a debacle for China,” said Elizabeth Wishnick, a China-russia specialist and senior research scientist at CNA, a U.S. non-profit institute.

“If he changes course, it's admitting the partnership was a flawed policy.”