Eyes on Conservatives in area byelection, political scientist says

Voters in Oxford and three other federal ridings will head to the polls June 19 after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced byelections to fill vacancies in the House of Commons.

The other three byelections will be held that day in Notre-damede-grâce–westmount in Quebec and in Portage–lisgar and Winnipeg South Centre in Manitoba.

Up for grabs are two seats won by the Tories and two by the Liberals in the 2021 general election.

Byelections are at best a loose way to gauge a party's political standing, although successes and failures are always well-spun, said University of Waterloo political scientist Peter Woolstencroft.

“There are always questions — how did the party do in the byelection compared to what happened last time or the history or expectations?”

For example, the Conservatives cannot afford to lose long-held Oxford, he said.

“It's not likely but what if it happens? What if it goes Liberal?

"The Conservatives will be a little anxious about Oxford.”

Lawyer Arpan Khann, who served as Ontario co-chair for Pierre Poilievre's successful leadership campaign and ran unsuccessfully for the Tories in Brampton in 2019, won the nomination for the Conservatives in Oxford.

After he won, the president and vice-president of the Oxford riding association resigned.

In what observers called “very unusual,” the riding 's former longtime Tory MP Dave Mackenzie announced he would be supporting the Liberal candidate, David Hilderley, a real estate agent and retired educator.

Mackenzie was MP in Oxford for 19 years and retired in January, triggering the byelection.

Western University professor Cody Groat will run for NDP. He is an assistant professor in history and Indigenous studies.