京津冀居民生活用煤“煤改电”政策的健康与经济效益评估

的过早死亡和60.78万例致病案例, 对应的健康效益分别约为408亿元和 5.61亿元。电采暖替代技术和新增电力来源的不同对3个地区空气质量改善和健康效益影响的差异不显著。

3) 结合政策实施的成本, 居民生活“煤改电”政策可以给京津冀区域带来显著的社会净效益。北京市和天津市实施政策能获得净效益, 而河北省存在净损失。最大净效益(最小净损失)的“煤改电”政策实现方式在3个地区间也存在差异。北京市和河北省宜采用“空气源热泵+可再生能源供电”, 天津市则应采用“蓄热式电暖器+可再生能源供电”。在3个地区各自最大化净效益情景下, 京津冀区域整体净效益约为 203.41 亿元。

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