Earthquake Prediction Research Based on Data of ETA

WANG Xin’an1,†, YONG Shanshan1, HUANG Jipan1, LÜ Yaxuan1, ZHANG Xing2, LIANG Yiwen3

1. Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction Technology Research Center, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055; 2. School of Electronics and Computer Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871; 3. School of Computer Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072; † E-mail: anxinwang@pku.edu.cn

Abstract Through the analysis of data of AETA (a system of earthquake precursory signals), before and after Jiuzhaigou Ms 7.0 earthquake in Sichuan Province on August 8, 2017, the result shows that there were 13 AETA stations which captured the associated abnormalities of 36 AETA stations stalled in Sichuan Province, and 9 of which were close related. A typical wave (SRSS wave) of electronic-magnetic disturbance average value found in 11 stations of the 13 stations, had a feature of changing synchronously with the time of sunrise and sunset. An abnormal stripe was found before and after Jiuzhaigou earthquake by PCAETA algorithm applied in SRSS of the 11 stations. Furthermore, the abnormal stripe is also found in Mianning Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Bureau station during August 12 to November 20, in 2017. It is concluded that AETA system can capture close related precursory abnormalities at multiple stations before earthquake and the abnormal stripe of SRSS wave is an obvious and specific earthquake precursory characteristics. Key words AETA; Jiuzhaigou earthquake; earthquake prediction; electronic-magnetic disturbance; PCAETA

大地震在不可预知的情况下发生, 造成的危害极大[1], 尤其是大地震的次生灾害, 如海啸[2]、水库垮塌[3]等。我国断裂带分布十分广泛, 是地震多发且受害最严重的国家。近60年来, 我国7级以上的大地震均发生在断裂带及其边缘, 包括 2008 年汶川地震[4]、2010年玉树地震[5]、2013年雅安地震[6]

以及2017年九寨沟地震[7]等, 如图1所示。

对断裂带和地震机理, 有一些理论假说和模型,但未得到实际震例和观测实验的充分论证[8]。以观测前兆异常现象开展临震预测研究, 是一种主要的探索方式[9–13]。

本研究团队研制的AETA系统[14–16]以支撑大区