Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Transportation in China: Empirical Analysis Based on Two-level Econometrics Method

WANG Jingtian1,2, MA Xiaoming1,2,†

1. School of Environment and Energy, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055; 2. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871; † Corresponding author, E-mail: xmma@pku.edu.cn

Abstract This study constructs a two-level influence factor model on the carbon emission amount and intensity of China’s transport sector. Econometric methods including Johansen co-integration analysis and error correction model are used for empirical analysis. The results show that the transport sector’s emissions are mainly affected by factors including economic development level, transport sector structure, transportation equipment energy efficiency, transportation management, infrastructure system intensity and so forth. Empirical analysis shows that the impact elastic coefficients of gross domestic product, proportion of railway transport, vehicle fuel consumption, telephone ownership rate per one hundred people and road network length are 0.74%, −2.60%, 2.01%, −0.68% and 0.17% respectively. Under business as usual scenario in terms of economic development, increasing the proportion of low-carbon transportation modes such as railway, lowering fuel consumption of conventional vehicles, promoting new-energy vehicles and accelerating the development of smart transportation can all contribute to controlling the amount of carbon emissions from the transport sector. Key words transportation; carbon emissions; influencing factors; co-integration analysis; two-level model

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