House Call

All eyes on British parliament’s upcoming vote to choose between a nodeal exit and a consensual Brexit

AThe author is an associate researcher with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations s the March 29 deadline for the UK’S divorce from the European Union (EU) draws near, uncertainties remain despite EU leaders approving of Theresa May’s Brexit agreement in November amid tumultuous opposition in Britain. The question now is whether the UK can attain an orderly withdrawal or whether there will be a no-deal Brexit, which will mean further crisis engulfing the island nation.

The British parliament was to vote on the Brexit deal in December 2018. It seemed certain to fail and May managed to delay it till January and in the process, survived a noconfidence vote in her own party. It led to her announcing that she would step down before the anticipated elections in 2022, a promise that might have helped her win over some lawmakers.

So though the last two months of 2018 witnessed many upheavals in the Brexit process, there were no crucial changes actually. The British parties could not still reach a consensus on Brexit issues and May still remained in her chair. Debates on the Brexit process are likely to continue in 2019, but with the upcoming vote on May’s deal, the UK’S future may become clearer.

May’s predicament

On November 14, 2018, London and Brussels finally reached an agreement after months of negotiations. The deal laid down the financial settlement for the UK after its withdrawal as well as the principles guaranteeing citizens’ rights and terms for the Brexit transition period. The two sides also agreed on a framework for future negotiations on trade and security. Now the draft has to be approved by a parliamentary vote on both sides. Only after it is ratified will a real legal document be in place to guide Britain’s orderly withdrawal from the EU.

The customs union, trade negotiations and the Irish border issue are among the most daunting problems. The EU wants to defend the integrity of the single market and ensure its bedrock—freedom of movement for goods, persons, services and capital. Britain will not be allowed to selectively enjoy the benefits of the single market after leaving the EU.

The EU also attaches particular importance to Ireland’s position as a member state. Ireland shares a border with Northern Ireland of the UK. According to the Good Friday Agreement signed between the UK and Ireland in 1998, there would be no hard borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The UK has agreed not to erect a border with Ireland, its only EU neighbor by land, after Brexit. So far, limited consensus has been reached on the customs union and the Irish border.

The two sides have agreed that while independent trade deals are negotiated with other countries, the UK, including Northern Ireland, will stay within the customs union during the Brexit transition period, which could last as long as 2022. After that, a threeparty panel may be formed to decide the issue if a new trade relationship between the UK and EU can’t be reached.

This solution, however, is strongly opposed by British politicians in favor of a hard Brexit. The British attorney general’s legal advice on Brexit indicates that the UK could be locked indefinitely in the EU’S orbit. “In the absence of a right of termination, there is a legal risk that the United Kingdom might become subject to protracted and repeating rounds of negotiations,” it says.

So when May signed the deal with the EU, it sparked a backlash. Then Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned, with a number of government officials quitting in his wake. The Conservative Party saw upheavals with over 100 MPS rebelling, causing the house vote scheduled on December 15