Forging Global Stability

The creation of a multilateral world has changed the international scene. While the United States preserves its military superiority, the continuous development of China and Russia’s resilience influences the balance of power. Under the administration of President Joe Biden, Washington seeks to set the tone by demonstrating to its partners that “it is back” on the world stage after four years of former President Donald Trump’s policies. During his first trip to Europe since his inauguration in January, Biden took part in Group of Seven (G7), NATO and U.S.-EU summits. But the meeting that captured international attention was the one with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Geneva, Switzerland, on June 16.

The relationship between the U.S. and Russia has been tense since 2014, following the Ukraine crisis. The animosity has been evident on both bilateral and multilateral levels. Despite well-known disagreements, Washington and Moscow have every reason to keep the channels of communication open.

The presidential joint statement on strategic stability asserts that, even in periods of tension, the two sides “are able to make progress on [their] shared goals of ensuring predictability in the strategic sphere, reducing the risk of armed conflicts and the threat of nuclear war.”

The international community hopes that a good U.S.-Russian mutual understanding will evolve and yield results in arms control arrangements. Good intentions cannot, however, guarantee progress due to existing mistrust. It is this mistrust that also creates tension in discussions about repairing the bilateral relationship. Although Biden and Putin have expressed interest in finding solutions, they hold very different standpoints. Cybersecurity is just one such example.

As the largest nuclear powers, it remains to be seen if the U.S. and Russia will be able to prioritize cooperation and find a way out of the current labyrinth. Both presidents consider face-to-face dialogue significant in that regard and Putin spoke about opportunities in the development of the Arctic region. As Biden told the media, “it’s clearly not in anybody’s interest… to be in a situation where [the U.S. and Russia] are in a new cold war.”

China hopes to see AmericanChinese-Russian relations stabilize, or at least not deteriorate. While the U.S. is seeking to compete with, or perhaps confront, China, the China-Russia partnership has reached new heights.

Putin commented on this theme in an NBC interview prior to the Geneva meeting in which he stressed the strength of China

The international community hopes that a good U.S.-Russian mutual understanding will evolve and yield results in arms control arrangements. Good intentions cannot, however, guarantee progress due to existing mistrust

Russia trust in all areas, including politics, the economy, technology as well as military and technical cooperation. In his words, “China is a friendly nation” and not a threat to Russia. In the near term, the U.S.’ ultimate goal could be to drive a wedge between China and Russia.

In a multilateral world, countries have the option of making choices without blindly following ideological legacies or adopt - ing homogenized standards and practices. China and Russia do not agree on everything, but are taking steps together because they perceive that their synergies serve their geopolitical and economic interests, visible in bilateral negotiations and within the UN framework.

Stability matters. The Group of 20 summit that is expected to take place in Rome, Italy, at the end of October will be a good chance for the leaders of the world’s biggest economies to carve out a way forward. The continuation of the pandemic makes any prognosis about a non-remote event risky. This does not undermine its significance, though. It cannot be expected for world leaders to sideline their differences. On the contrary, it is expected for them to manage these differences in a liturgical way and generate hope for peace and prosperity in the international community.

For now, no equilibrium has been found. The ongoing uncertainty creates unpredictability, if not fear. More time is required. During the evolving period of recalibration and readjustment, China will not politically replace the U.S. but will find it easier to share its vision about the world and elaborate on the future perspectives of its relations with both the U.S. and Russia in its arduous endeavor to inspire world citizens.

The author is EU-China Program director at the Centre International de Formation Européenne Copyedited by Ryan Perkins Comments to yanwei@bjreview.com