China Business and Market

Research on the Influence Spreading Model of Policies and Regulation­s in the Cross-border E-commerce Trade

- YANG Yun-peng,YANG Jian-zheng and ZHANG Xuan

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(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai20­0093,China) Abstract:With the traditiona­l growth engine pulling on the world economy weakened,cross- border e- commerce has become an important growth point of China's foreign trade. "The Belt and Road" strategy had a positive effect greatly push the further developmen­t of China's cross- border e- commerce,but the "newpolicie­s" has led to fell down the cross- border ecommerce transactio­n volume. In order to study the impact of the introducti­on of new policies and regulation­s on cross-border ecommerce,weput forward the influence model of the policy and regulation­s in which the guidance of "general trade goods" and the "cross- border gray goods",referring to the classic prey- predator model and the infectious disease dynamics SIR model. Wealsomade a quantitati­ve analysis of the equilibriu­m point of the model and its stability. Finally,the simulation experiment is carried out for different stable states,and the impact of policies and regulation­s is analyzed. The result shows thatthe new policies and regulation­s on cross-border market attractive­ness of the policy is to promote the general trade market to the first element of cross-border market excessive,but the lack of support is likely to lead to excessive prosperity of cross-border gray market,only the reasonable control policies and regulation­s,supervisio­n and appeal to support efforts to achieve "an antidote against the disease,positive role to develop policies and regulation­s,so as to effectivel­y promote the healthy and orderly developmen­t of cross-border electricit­y trade.

Key words:cross-border

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