Internet Penetration，Logistics Efficiency and Online Retail Development in China
——Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition Based on VAR Model
LI Huai-zheng （School of Economics，Zhejiang Gongshang University，Hangzhou310018，China）
Abstract：In recent years，with the gradual deepening of the reform in the field of domestic trade circulation system，the strategy of powerful trading country and the implementation of the“Internet plus”action plan，the online retail in China is becoming more and more vigorous，and it will have a profound influence on retail structure and transformation and upgrading of traditional retail enterprises. According to the experience of developed countries，the sustainable development of online retail is increasingly subject to the improvement of Internet penetration level and logistics efficiency. Firstly the paper builds a VAR model based on the theoretical logic of the optimization of online retail transaction costs and extended two level CES production function and time series data of China's online retail industry，and then makes impulse response analysis and variance decomposition on the impact of Internet penetration level and logistics efficiency on Chinese online retail. The results show that there is a stable and long- term equilibrium relationship between China's online retail development and Internet penetration level and logistics efficiency；the impulse response of online retail to the Internet penetration is more sensitive and significant than logistics efficiency，and the improvement of Internet penetration level is the most important factor in the development of online retail. In addition，it is recommended that China's online retail industry should further strengthen the construction of network infrastructure， promote the Internet penetration and the level of the research and development of online retail technology，improve the system of e-commerce logistics，and optimize the system of online retail regulation and its related institutional arrangements.
Key words：Online Retail；Internet Penetration；Logistics Efficiency；Two-level CES Production Function；VAR Model