The Multistage Dynamic Game Analysis on How Does Trade Dispute between China and the U.S. Leap Over the Thucydides Trap

China Business and Market - - ニュース - MENG Liang and LIANG Ying-ying

(Liaoning University of Technology,Jinzhou,Liaoning121000,China)

Abstract:At present,conflicts between China and the U.S. in terms of politics,economy and international relation is increasingly highlighted. Especially since the year 2018,trade disputes between China and the U.S. has been updated and involved all the industries and the whole industrial chains;and the trade dispute between China and the U.S. is falling into the Thucydides Trap. The multistage dynamic game model is established based on cooperative and competitive conditions;and the author analyzes the trade dispute between China and the U.S. based on this model and the Game theory. It is found that:if China suffers high costs of confrontation under the precondition of American advance decision-making,it will enhance the confidence of remaining strong of China in the game;if the U.S. can be confident that future losses that is caused by the weakening of its strategic position will not be unacceptable,there will be more motivated and willing for the U.S. to negotiate for the termination of the trade dispute game. To leap over the Thucydides Trap,we should fully consider the current situation of both China and the U.S. and all the fundamental causes of the trade dispute between the two countries. We should promote the negotiation with the help of trade war and promote the peace ending with the help of negotiation,and leap over the Thucydides Trap;we should reduce American government’s expectation on losses that is caused by the weakening of its strategic position;we should strengthen China’s rational reaction to the cost of confrontation;based on the Belt and Road Initiative,we should strengthen regional economic integrated cooperation,and further promote the diversified development of exporting market.

Key words:trade between China and the U.S.;trade dispute;Thucydides trap;dynamic game

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