美国网络借贷信息中介机构监管制度及对我国的启示 李旻

（Fudan University，Shanghai200433，China）

Abstract：The market- oriented exchange rate mechanism could allocate resources and release risk more effectively，and could play as an automatic stabilizer for cross-border capital flows. Using 32 emerging economies capital flow data from 1990Q1 to 2016Q4，the authors analyze how exchange rate regime changes the influence of global financial shocks on short-term capital inflows. The results show that global financial shocks have a significant impact on the short-term cross-border capital inflow of EMEs，but between different exchange rate regimes the above influence is quite different. Compared to floating exchange rate regime，fixed exchange rate regime and intermediate exchange rate regime strengthen the negative impact of global financial shocks on the short-term cross-border capital inflow of EMEs. Given China is the largest emerging economy，whose institutions are quite different from other emerging economies in the sample，the authors drop out China from the sample but get the same conclusions. Besides，these findings are robust when using different global financial shock variables，including institutional factors and the reverse causality of exchange rate regime changes caused by cross-border capital inflow. So the authors believe that，with the deepening global integration，though the flexible exchange rate regime cannot provide the perfect insulativity，to some extend，it can weaken the negative impact of global financial shocks on cross-border capital inflows. During the decisive stage in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and at a critical moment as socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era，to really realize the market-oriented exchange rate regime，China’s regulatory authorities should view reform in RMB market- oriented reform as a a systematic project，which should be autonomy，gradual and controllable under the leadership of CPC；and China’s regulatory authorities should also guide RMB exchange rate expectations，so that the exchange rate can better play the role of automatic stabilizer.

Key words：exchange rate regimes；global financial shocks；automatic stabilizer；short-term cross-border capital flows