中美贸易摩擦背景下中国对外经济发展策略 杜永红

（1.Renmin University of China，Beijing100872，China；2.Beijing Wuzi University，Beijing101149，China）

Abstract：Rural consumption will be soared as the growth of the new generation of rural residents who was born in 1980’s and 1990’s. Understanding the influencing factors of the consumption of the new generation rural residents is the key point of inciting the potential of rural consumption and promoting the supply-side structural reform of commerce and trade. Based on 792 questionnaires from 22 provinces in China，the authors use the Tobit model to study the influencing factors of the new generation rural residents’consumption，and compare with the non-new generation rural residents. The results demonstrate the leading role of women in the consumption of new generation rural residents and the“demonstration effect”of urban on rural areas in the consumption of convenience goods and shopping goods. There are two new discoveries in the study. First，the new characteristics of“sponging off of their parents”and “spending the whole family’s money to achieve his own dream”are common in the consumption of the new generation rural residents，just like“Tweens”. Second，the influencing mechanism of new generation rural residents and non-new generation rural residents is different. The impact on the new generation of rural residents is reflected in the choice of personal consumer goods such as convenience goods and shopping goods. The impact on non- new generation rural residents is reflected in supporting their children’s choice of specialty goods. The research shows that the consumption potential of the new generation rural residents is huge，improving the education level of rural residents and carrying out marketing promotion with the theme of urban lifestyle is of great significance for guiding the demand and upgrading the attitudes.

Key words：new generation；rural residents；rural consumption；rural market；Tobit model