A Comparison between China’s and Russia’s Export Growth to Central Asia Countries under the Silk Road Economic Belt
（1.Beijing Wuzi University，Beijing101149，China；2.Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange，Zhengzhou，Henan450018，China）
Abstract：Using HS 6- digit trade data from 2001 to 2018，the authors decompose and compare the three margins and its contribution rate of China’s and Russia’s export growth to Kazakhstan，which is taken as an example of Central Asian countries； then they establish a gravity model to inspect the influencing factors of the three margins. The results are as follows：Judging from the changes of three marginal change，the extensive and quantity margin of China’s export to Kazakhstan had increased significantly，however still remained less than Russia’s. The two countries’export price had come up to convergence，far below the average of Kazakhstan’s import price from the world. The overall performance of China’s exports to Kazakhstan was “increase in quantity and decrease in price”，reflecting that the export products’quality had not been improved. Judging from the contribution rate，the growing quantity of existed export is the major driving force of both countries’export growth path，but the price margin of China’s export to Kazakhstan had been increased. In the regression，economic scale，trade cost，foreign direct investment and bilateral exchange rate were the factors that affect the three margins of China’s and Russia’s exports growth to Kazakhstan，but whether they play a role and the direction of action were quite different. In order to narrow the gap with Russia， we should not only increase the quantity of export products，but also enrich the varieties in the future. Meanwhile，considering the realization of high- quality trade development，economic freedom，bilateral exchange rate and other tools should be used flexibly，and we should pay attention to adjusting the structure of export products，especially strengthening the export of hightech，mechanical and electronic products.
Key words：Russia；Central Asia countries；Kazakhstan；export；three margins