The Influencing Factors and Trade Potential of China’s Dairy International Competitiveness

Abstract：The authors analyze the comparative advantages and competitive advantages of China’s dairy industry by using import and export data from 2001 to 2019. They try to distinguish four types of superior dairy products，such as the dairy products with comparative advantages，the dairy products competitive advantages，the dairy products with both comparative and competitive advantages，and the dairy products without any advantages，and analyze their influencing factors and trade potential. First，generally speaking，the comparative advantages and competitive advantages are insufficient ；dairy products with comparative advantages are fresh milk and whey，dairy products with competitive advantages are cream ，cheese，infant milk powder and milk powder，dairy product with both these two advantages is yogurt，and dairy products without any advantages is condensed milk；and the change in comparative advantage has the most significant effect on improving the level of competitive advantage of dairy products with both the two advantages. Second ，the domestic GDP plays a more obvious role in promoting the import of milk powder，and only plays the role in promoting the export of cream ；foreign GDP promotes various superior dairy products，especially whey；in addition to fresh milk，it has a positive effect on the export of other dairy products ，especially condensed milk；the foreign population has a significant impact on imports，especially cheese；and distance obviously hinders the import and export of various superior products，but has no effect on the import of dairy products with comparative advantage. Third，tariff has the most significant impact on the export of condensed milk and the most significant impact on the import of whey；countries along the Belt and Road play the most obvious role in promoting the import and export of fresh milk ；FTA has obvious promotion effect on dairy products with competitive advantage ；and WTO membership promotes the export of fresh milk and the import of infant milk powder most obviously. Fourth，the import and export of various types of dairy products are basically the same with the regions where potential trading partners belong ，but the potential for specific country is significantly different.

Key words：dairy products；international competitiveness ；comparative advantage；competitive advantage；trade potential