Heterogeneous Impact of Consumption Structure Upgrading on Industrial Structure Upgrading

（1.Research Center of Econometrics，Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences，Shanghai 200235，China；2.Institute of

Economics，Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences，Shanghai 200020，China）

Abstract：Industrial structure upgrading is one of the ultimate goals of the supply- side structural reform. The consumption structure upgrading is the key factor to expand demand in the international and domestic dual circulation strategy. The commercial circulation enabled by the Internet improves the matching efficiency of supply and demand of goods. In this context，it is of practical significance to study the impact of consumption structure upgrading，Internet commercial circulation efficiency and industrial structure upgrading. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in Chinese mainland from 2015 to 2020，the authors construct the index of urban and rural average consumption level and the upgrading index of consumption structure in urban and rural areas by using the entropy weight method，and calculates the efficiency of Internet business circulation by using the DEA method. By means of two- way fixed effects panel data model，the influence of upgrading of consumption structure on the rationalization of industrial structure and the optimization of industrial structure is explored from the national，regional and urban rural levels. The regulatory effect of Internet commercial circulation efficiency on the above impact is also analyzed. It is found that： the upgrading of consumption structure promotes the upgrading of industrial structure，in which the efficiency of Internet commercial circulation plays a positive regulatory role；from the aspect of different regions，the degree of the above influence and regulation in the eastern region is higher than that of the national average level is more significant，and the degree of the above influence and regulation in the central and western regions is lower than that of the national average level is less significant；and from the perspective of urban and rural areas，the size and significance of the above effects and regulatory effects in cities and towns are higher than those in rural areas. The mechanism test shows that the income elasticity of development and enjoyment demand plays an intermediary role in the above effects. Based on this，China should，first，pay attention to the leading role of the demand side in the supply-side structural reform，focus on the upgrading of the demand structure，and give full play to the role of the upgrading of the consumption structure in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure from the two aspects of the government and the market； second，China should promote the organic combination of the circulation industry and the new infrastructure，enable the digital economy to empower the circulation industry，and give play to the regulatory role of the Internet commercial circulation efficiency in the upgrading of consumption structure and the upgrading of industrial structure；and third，China should guide the coordinated development of consumption structure upgrading in different regions，cities and rural areas，establish a reasonable regional trade system and urban-rural trade system，and help upgrade the industrial structure from the supply side and demand side.

Key words：consumption structure upgrading；internet commercial circulation efficiency ；rationalization of industrial struc⁃ ture；optimization of industrial structure；heterogeneity