Research on the Export Effects and Trade Prospects of China’s Agricultural Products Market in the RCEP Free Trade Zone

——Based on the Stochastic Model and Empirical Analysis of Market Segments

Abstract：With the help of time- varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade index analysis ，the authors establish such two indicators as export trade expansion space (TS) and agricultural product import dependence (IRCA) ，use the Boston Matrix analysis method to predict the trade prospects of China’s agricultural products within the RCEP regions，and reveal the impact of the establishment of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade zone on China ’s trade prospects. The results show that：though there are different trade prospects in different market segments ，generally speaking，the prospects of China’s trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in agricultural product is bright ；both China ’s and other member countries’economic scale will have positive impact on China’s export of agricultural products；because of the short distance between China and most of the member countries of ASEAN ，which is the convenient condition for the trade of agricultural products，and the different weather conditions and resources endowment between China and most of the member countries of ASEAN，there are significant space for China to expand the trade of agricultural products within the RCEP regions and after the formal implementation of RCEP，it will bring China’s trade of agricultural products with strategic opportunity. China should，first，promote the connection between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and RECP ，implement the rules of RCEP，and expand China’s trade of agricultural products，especially the processed food；second，China should promote the close integration of industrial chain and supply chain within the RCEP regions ，and promote the free flow the factors of production within these regions；and third，related departments in China should adopt countermeasures to jointly improve the competitiveness of domestic agricultural industries and enterprises.

Key words：RCEP；agricultural products；export effect；trade prospects；time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model