Research on the Impact of Trade Regime Arrangements on the Trade Efficiency of China’s Agricultural Products Export to Countries along the Belt and Road

——An Empirical Analysis based on the Time-varying Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

（1.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development，CAAS，Beijing 100081，China；2.School of Economics，

Bejing Wuzi University，Beijing 101149，China）

Abstract：Based on the data from 2001 to 2020 in UN-Comtrade database，the authors explore the impact of trade regime arrangement on the trade efficiency of China's agricultural products export to countries along the Belt and Road by using the timevarying stochastic frontier gravity model，and further measure the trade efficiency. The results show that ，first，the overall average export efficiency of China’s agricultural products to countries along the Belt and Road in 2020 is only 0.475，which demonstrates the great export potential to India，Japan，Vietnam，Indonesia，Myanmar，Russia，and so on. Second，the longer the FTA is established by the two trading countries，the more the trade efficiency will be improved ；and the accession of destination country to WTO is beneficial to the improvement of the efficiency of China's agricultural products export ，but the positive effect of the length of entry to WTO is not significant. And third ，the improvement of judicial efficiency，monetary freedom，investment freedom，trade freedom and financial freedom of export destination countries can significantly improve the trade efficiency，while the increase of government fiscal expenditure and the improvement of commercial freedom is not conducive to the improvement of trade efficiency. To boost the trade efficiency of China's agricultural products export to countries along the Belt and Road，we should pay more attention to institutional arrangement and social and economic system of the destination country；and based on the existing free trade zone，we should accelerate the biliteral and multilateral trade negotiation with countries along the Belt and Road.

Key words：trade regime arrangement；trade efficiency；agricultural products export；time-varying stochastic frontier gravi⁃ ty model；countries along the Belt and Road