International Supply Shock of Intermediate Inputs and "Stabilizing Production" of China's Economy

——On the Coordination between "Stabilizing Foreign Capital" and "Stabilizing Production"

（Institute of Industrial Economics of CASS，Beijing 100006，China） Abstract："Stabilizing production" is an important link in stabilizing China's economic fundamentals. Under the background of tight supply of international supply chain，examining the impact of international supply shocks on the "stabilizing production" of China'seconomyisofgreatsignificance.WiththehelpoftheglobalintermediatetradedatabaseandtheChinesecustomsdatabase， the author measures the international supply shocks at the enterprise level. The results show that the international supply shocks encountered by Chinese enterprises in recent years are at historical high level. Furthermore，the author empirically tests the effect of international supply shocks on the production level of Chinese enterprises using the data of Chinese industrial enterprises and the data of the approval of foreign investment by the Ministry of Commerce. The results show that the supply shocks originating from the international intermediate market inhibit the production of domestic enterprises，and this effect on enterprises with weak embeddedness in domestic supply chain，processing trade enterprises and low productivity enterprises is significantly higher than that on other enterprises. Further analysis shows that there is a close relationship between "stabilizing foreign capital" and "stabilizing production". The effect of international supply shock has intensified the inhibition effect on the production of Chinese enterprises by affecting foreign enterprises in China. The expansion analysis shows that improving the supply capacity of domestic intermediate goods，cultivating domestic market demand and promoting the construction of domestic market integration will help to cope with the impact of international supply shock of intermediate inputs. However，when the regional distribution of domestic market demand is uneven，itwillintensifythenegativeeffectofinternationalsupplyshockofintermediateinputs.Underthenewdevelopmentpattern， to effectively cope with the international supply shock of intermediate inputs and realize the stable development of China's economy，we should accelerate the improvement of domestic supply capacity，cultivate domestic market demand，promote the balanced development of regional market demand，and promote the construction of the integrated domestic market.

Key words：international supply shock；intermediate inputs；stabilizing production；stabilizing foreign capital

doi：10.14089/j.cnki.cn11-3664/f.2023.02.010

.我国内地高净值人群海外移民财富流失测算及经济分析[J].中国流通经济，2023（2）：105-117.引用格式：陈初昇，赵晓阳，衣长军