China Daily European Weekly : 2018-11-30

Cover Story : 7 : 7

Cover Story

7 COVER STORY EUROPEAN WEEKLY November 30-December 6, 2018 CHINA DAILY rule the world. That the US has this leading global position is largely a legacy of World War II and the Cold War,” he said. “China is preoccupied with its own problems, since it is a continent-sized country. In any new world order you would not just have the US and China but also countries like India being leading nations.” Shi, from Renmin University, believes that if nothing is resolved at the G20 summit, China may look to build better relationships with Europe and countries such as Japan, Canada and Australia. “People talk about the US and Chinese economies decoupling. China’s only response to this will be to make itself attractive to other developed economies. It will want to avoid any situation where it is largely dependent on trade with just developing countries.” Roach believes that whatever the outcome of the trade talks between Xi and Trump, the summit will produce some positive results. “It won’t be an empty-handed summit and they won’t disband without a communique. There will be a broad agreement signed on some of these other tough issues. Whether, however, there is progress on trade remains to be seen.” jobs over the same period, Europe 40 percent and, perhaps most alarmingly for global development, a country such as Ethiopia — which has seen manufacturing as a route to economic progress — 80 percent of its employment. According to Goldin, the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution could be the one that does not create new jobs. The first such revolution, in Britain in the 18th century, created urban factory jobs, the second, which began in the US, led to mass production in the early 20th century, and the third, or computer revolution, created many new opportunities in such areas as IT and call centers. “Basically, anything that is repetitive and rules-based that doesn’t require dexterity and empathy or very high levels of skills and sophistication could be disintermediated technology. For people with the right skills, there are now a wealth of opportunities.” This G20 gathering will be remembered most perhaps for the outcome of the expected meeting between Xi and Trump, with the global economy being so dependent on the Sino-US relationship. Some observers argue that the trade conflict is a proxy for a much bigger struggle between the world’s two biggest economies, and that they are falling into a Thucydides Trap, where a rising power clashes with a declining one. Chu Yin, an associate professor at the University of International Relations in Beijing, believes people are misjudging China’s intentions. “What China wants from the G20 is to see this trade issue resolved, because it is not in the interest of anyone. China certainly does not want to (cutting people out) by artificial intelligence and machine learning,” Goldin says. James Fallows, a US journalist and national correspondent for Atlantic magazine, who visited Deqing, Zhejiang province, in November for the World Geospatial Information Congress, believes there is already evidence in the US of jobs being created. He has collaborated with his wife, Deborah, on the book From page 6 dent Nelson Mandela, says it is not just about building new infrastructure in places such as Africa, but also about replacing old infrastructure in developed countries. “We basically have to move to zero carbon over the next 20 years or so and that means all existing carbon infrastructure has to be replaced. This not only has massive implications for energy generation, but also for distribution and storage systems,” he says. The G20 is prioritizing retraining and reskilling as a way to deal with future employment. According to a study by the Oxford Martin School at Oxford University, 60 percent of Chinese jobs could be lost to robotics and artificial intelligence in the next 20 years. The US could lose 47 percent of OurTowns:A 100,000-MileJourneyIntotheHeart ofAmerica. During the research for this, they witnessed jobs being created in the US Midwest. “In the classic Rust Belt town there was a giant factory, and that factory is not coming back. What we witnessed, however, was a boom in jobs that are now often unfilled in areas such as robotic repairs, small-scale advanced manufacturing and clean energy Cao Desheng and Chen Yingqun contributed to this story. PRINTED AND DISTRIBUTED BY PRESSREADER +1 604 278 4604 ORIGINAL COPY . ORIGINAL COPY . ORIGINAL COPY . ORIGINAL COPY . ORIGINAL COPY . ORIGINAL COPY COPYRIGHT AND PROTECTED BY APPLICABLE LAW

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