States try to predict inmates’ future crimes

US states are trying to reduce prison populations with secretive new psychological assessments to predict which inmates will commit future crimes and who might be safe to release, despite serious problems and high-profile failures, an Associated Press investigation found.

The programs are part of a national, data-driven movement to drive down prison populations, reduce recidi- vism and save billions. They include questionnaires, often with more than 100 questions about an offender’s education, family, income, job status, history of moving, parents’ arrest history — even whether he or she has a phone. A score is affixed to each answer and the result helps shape how the offender will be supervised in the system or released from custody.

Used for crimes ranging from petty theft to serial murders, the questionnaires come with their own set of risks.

There are dozens of different surveys in use. Many rely on criminals to tell the truth, and jurisdictions don’t always check to make sure the answers are accurate. They are used inconsistently across the country, sometimes within the same jurisdiction.

A 1987 Rand Corporation study that said the surveys can predict the likelihood of repeat offenses as much as 70 percent of the time — if they are used correctly. But even the Rand study was skeptical of the surveys’ overall effectiveness.

Some surveys have the potential to punish people for being poor or uneducated by attaching a lower risk to those who have steady work and high levels of education. The surveys are shrouded in secrecy.

“It is a vast improvement over the decision-making process of 20, 30 years ago, when parole boards and the courts didn’t have any statistical information to base their decisions on,” said Adam Gelb, director of the Public Safety Performance Project at the Pew Charitable Trusts.