SIGN OF SUCCESS SPOTTED IN REMOTE GUANGXI VILLAGE
British economist hails China’s ‘astonishingly long period’ of rapid growth
Arandom encounter with a slogan on a giant billboard in a remote village in South China left a big impression on British economist Jim O’Neill nine years ago.
During a business trip in October 2009, O’Neill decided to spend some leisure time enjoying the karst mountains along the Yulong River in Yangshuo, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, with his wife.
“We cycled around some villages and outside one village, we saw this massive billboard, which read ‘Success in English, success in life’, and this stuck with me for as long as I can remember,” he said.
“That made me realize how much China wanted to learn and communicate, and why it was obviously the case that China’s rise is good for the United Kingdom.”
O’Neill, who was recently appointed chairman of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, which is also known as Chatham House, said the lifting of hundreds of millions of people out of poverty with the help of astonishing economic growth is China’s biggest achievement in the past 40 years.
“China has had the most astonishingly long period of very high economic growth, something which the world has never seen,” he said.
In 1977, China’s GDP was $175 billion, just 2 percent of the world’s total. Last year, it was $12 trillion — nearly 68 times more — accounting for 15 percent of the world total. In that time it has jumped from 10th position globally to second, behind only the United States.
Recalling his first trip to China in 1990, the former chief economist for Goldman Sachs said Beijing looked very underdeveloped, but still showed signs of commercialism, supported by a substantial number of street markets.
O’Neill has traveled to China more than 30 times since then, each time noting the pace of constant change in the country, with a huge rise in technology use and the service sector in recent years.
This year marks the 40th anniversary of the launch of China’s reform and opening-up policy, and O’Neill describes the country’s economic performance during the past four decades as “powerful, transformational and to some degree inclusive”.
“‘Powerful’ because there are four times as many people in China earning $40,000 a year as there are in the UK,” he said. “In terms of ‘inclusive’, even though inside China, on standard measures, there’s been a widening income disparity, on a truly global basis world income differentials have actually narrowed, primarily because there is an incredible Chinese story.”
When it comes to “transformational”, he explained that not only has China lifted many people out of poverty, but it has also transformed more aspects of the world. “Take the tourism industry for example, the whole global tourist industry is literally being transformed by Chinese tourists,” he said.
Tourists from the Chinese mainland made more than 130 million outbound trips last year, spending $115.29 billion in the process, according to the China National Tourism Administration.
O’Neill described an encounter with a Chinese tourist during a hiking trip on top of Switzerland’s Schilthorn mountain as memorable and uplifting.
Famous as the location for one of the early James Bond films, the mountain is a big tourist attraction, with many choosing to take the cable car up. An avid hiker, O’Neill chose to walk instead.
“After walking the mountains for hours, I was a bit disheveled and cold given the height of the mountain,” he said. “But my spirits were lifted by listening to what seemed like a Chinese lady singing in the most fantastic voice, rather loudly, the famous song The Hills Are Alive from the musical The Sound of Music, and she received a massive round of applause from everyone afterward.”
O’Neill said it was indicative of the freedom enjoyed by Chinese people and especially their creativity, adding that it refuted the perception that China has an issue with allowing and encouraging genuine, open imagination.
He attributed China’s economic success partly to its Five-Year Plan, which keeps the nation’s development aligned with its strategic direction, an idea he said many other countries, particularly developing ones, should copy.
“China had these clear, every five years, repeated priorities about what it wants to achieve ... and by and large, China stuck to that,” he said.
O’Neill said China’s sustainable growth is also aided by the country’s increased urbanization, its welcoming of foreign direct investment, and embrace of technological change.
“I think it is really wise that China has welcomed foreign direct investment, which allowed the country to understand and learn from some of the world’s greatest industries for the benefit of China,” he said.
“It becomes more and more apparent in this decade that China is not scared. In fact, it deliberately tries very hard to embrace modern technologies.”
He also commended President Xi Jinping’s concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind, saying that is probably the most important value Chatham House aspires to.
“I think they want someone like me as a chairman, to help during these challenging times to do just what Xi has suggested on a Chinese basis and translate it to the world, help to foster and sustain it throughout the world,” he said.
O’Neill is well known for having coined the term “BRIC” in 2001 as a way to describe Brazil, Russia, India and China as a group of nations at a similar stage of development that promised to be the economic powerhouses of the future. South Africa was added nine years later, creating the term BRICS.
“When I coined the term BRIC in 2001, I still remember China was heavily dependent on low-valueadded exports and not too developed, but I recalled that China played a huge role in helping solve the Asian (financial) crisis indirectly in 1997-98, which is why I immediately saw China at the center of the BRIC concept,” he said.
China has been the best-performing BRICS member in the past 17 years, with the size of its economy now double that of the other BRICS countries combined.
O’Neill said he expects India’s GDP to grow more rapidly than China’s in the years ahead because it is at the same stage of development China was at 20 years ago.