Big Island eruption could cost Hawaii $200m, study finds

LOS ANGELES — The loss of tourism on Hawaii’s Big Island from the eruption of the Kilauea volcano run as high as $200 million, a study found.

Doctor Mark Kimura, an affiliate faculty member of the Department of Geography and Environmental Science at the University of Hawaii at Hilo, said the Big Island may have already lost 38,000 potential visitors and around $50 million in potential tourism expenditure in May and June.

“Tourism has seasonality and cycles, so rather than comparing the current numbers to previous months, year-on-year growth rates are more helpful. The year-on-year growth of monthly visitors to the Big Island was minus 2 percent in May and minus 5 percent in June. Since Hawaii’s tourism has been growing steadily, this is clearly unusual,” Kimura wrote in an email.

The Big Island may have lost 17,000 potential visitors and $22.7 million in potential tourism expenditure in May and 21,000 potential visitors and $27.5 million in potential tourism expenditure in June, the peak month of the loss.

“The $200 million loss is the estimate based on the assumption that the recovery had already started, which is most likely not true,” Kimura wrote.

“It’s just the expenditure by the tourists. And there’s usually a ‘ripple effect’.

“If tourism-related businesses lose their revenue, then their suppliers lose theirs, too. If their employees lose their jobs, they’ll reduce their consumption of local goods and services. That might affect even the local businesses for basic goods and services, which may not be related to tourism.”

Kimura compared the current eruption to Hurricane Iniki, saying the recovery process takes time even if the natural event ended today.

Hurricane Iniki was the most powerful hurricane to strike the state in recorded history. It caused around $3.1 billion of damage and six deaths in 1992.

However, Kimura said that Hawaii as a whole is doing fine economically.

“This gives us hopes for the Big Island as well ... we just have to make sure the tourists are coming to the island, too,” he wrote.

Kilauea’s eruption has prompted the closure of twothirds of the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park on the Big Island.

Hundreds of homes have been destroyed by lava from Kilauea, which has been erupting nearly continuously since early May.