US coalition against Iran ‘not easy’
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s Middle East tour successfully appeased US allies, but the goal of getting those regional allies to forge a common front against Iran will be difficult to realize, analysts said.
Pompeo said that the US government is working to establish a Middle East Strategic Alliance to confront Iran, which he considered “the region’s most serious threat”, during a speech on his visit that ended on Monday.
This effort is meant to bring together members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Egypt and Jordan. But that might not be as easy it sounds.
“It’s time for old rivalries to end, for the sake of the greater good of the region,” Pompeo said during a speech on US policy in the Middle East at the American University in Cairo on Jan 10.
For Syria, he added that the US will “use diplomacy and work with our partners to expel every last Iranian boot”, and “bring peace and stability to the long-suffering Syrian people”.
Pompeo also said that the US will fully support “Israel’s right to defend itself against the Iranian regime’s aggressive adventurism”, and would ensure that Israel has the military capacity to do so decisively.
Xu Liping, a researcher at the National Institute of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the US target of building a coalition to counteract Iran is very difficult to carry out, as Middle East countries have different interests and it is difficult to ask them to stand on a united front against Iran.
“Iran’s political and economic development have both been stable in the past few years,” he said. He added that Iran has ambitions in the region, which might raise red flags among other countries. That is good for the US in terms of carrying out its policy in the region, but other countries may have different attitudes.
“If the US only keeps putting constant and limited pressure on Iran, that goes along with the interest of countries in Middle East, but forging a common stand against Iran doesn’t. Countries in this region have complicated interests and hold different kinds of relations with Iran,” he said.
In his one-week tour, Pompeo visited a number of Arab countries, including Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman.
The tour came amid rising doubts and fears over US President Donald Trump’s rush decision to pull US troops out from Syria. Trump announced on Dec 19 that the US would immediately withdraw 2,000 troops from Syria, declaring that the Islamic States group had been defeated. He has come under intense pressure both at home and in allied capitals since then.
He Wenping, a senior research fellow at the Charhar Institute, said that the Middle East Strategic Alliance will be difficult to be realized, as every country in Middle East has their own specific interest demand.
“The US has made many efforts in the past few years to bring them to the same camp, but these countries are not really in the same camp yet,” she said.
“Although they will make comprises over certain issues that will bring a real benefit to them,” she said, adding that relations between Arab countries and Iran are also varied.
One stop on Pompeo’s tour was Qatar, which has been boycotted by its neighbors. Several Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt, cut diplomatic ties with Qatar on June 5, 2017. But Qatar’s relations with Iran remain solid, she said.
“For example, Qatar’s airlines are forbidden to fly over these countries, but can fly through Iran, which makes the two countries closer,” she said.
Another stop on Pompeo’s tour was Iraq, which currently relies heavily on its eastern neighbor Iran, importing around 1,300 megawatts of electricity and 28 million cubic meters of natural gas to fuel power plants. Washington, which sees Tehran as its top foe in the region, is keen to break those ties, according to an AFP report.
He Wenping said that Pompeo’s Middle East visit also strengthened communications with allies. Planning to form the Middle East Strategic Alliance means the US wants to have systematic and regular communication, which could help curb Russia’s growing influence in the region.
Xu said that what Pompeo’s visit achieved is that it helped reassure allies that the US will continue to be an influence in the Middle East. In turn, the US won more support from those countries.