Pandemic undermines global employment, trade
Employment, working hours and world trade are all taking a massive hit globally as the COVID19 pandemic disrupts normal economic activity and life around the world, said major international organizations.
The novel coronavirus will wipe out 6.7 percent of working hours globally in the second quarter of 2020, which is equivalent to 195 million full-time jobs, according to a report released by the International Labour Organization on Tuesday.
The report, “ILO Monitor 2nd Edition: COVID-19 and the World of Work”, said all income groups are expected to have huge losses, especially in upper-middle income countries, far exceeding the effects of the 2008-09 financial crisis.
The ILO foresaw large reductions in working hours in Arab states, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region, and said more than 81 percent of people in the global workforce are currently affected by full or partial workplace closures.
Sectors such as accommodation, food and beverages, manufacturing and retail are identified as being at high risk of “drastic and devastating” increases in layoffs and reductions in wages and working hours, affecting about 1.25 billion workers, the report said.
Chen Yun, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security, said industries based on customer service are suffering the greatest impact of the pandemic as social distancing is one of the most powerful ways to cut off the spread.
Moreover, Chen said, these industries would be affected for the longest time, and would also have the slowest rate of work resumption.
The possibility of growth in the future to make up for these losses will decrease as the outbreak has altered people’s consumption habits, he added.
“It will also take some time for people to overcome the psychological effects of the pandemic,” said Chen, noting that this will make it very difficult for sectors such as food and beverages to recover.
Looked at regionally, the ILO’s report said the proportion of workers in these “at risk” sectors varied from 43 percent in the Americas to 26 percent in Africa.
In the United States, some Labor Department reports over the past two weeks indicated that around 10 million people have lost their jobs as businesses across the world’s largest economy shut down to stop the virus’ spread.
Another survey taken during the week of March 12 showed that the US economy lost 701,000 jobs and the unemployment rate increased by 4.4 percent — the worst figures since March 2009 during the depths of the global financial crisis.
Workers and businesses are facing a catastrophe in both developed and developing economies, said
ILO Director-General Guy Ryder, calling on more international cooperation to find solutions that help all segments of our global society.
“If one country fails, then we all fail,” he said. “The choices we make today will directly affect the way this crisis unfolds and so the lives of billions of people.”
Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization said on Wednesday that global trade is expected to fall by 13 percent to 32 percent in 2020.
Releasing its annual “Trade Statistics and Outlook Report”, the WTO said the decline would likely exceed the trade slump brought on by the global financial crisis of 2008-09, and North America and Asia are expected to suffer the most.
The WTO estimated that a recovery in world trade of 21 percent to 24 percent could take place in 2021, but only if the pandemic is brought under control.