Will ‘one country, two systems’ stay beyond 2047?
Editor’s note: This is the 10th of a series focusing on the “one country, two systems” principle.
The Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region stipulates that “one country, two systems” will remain unchanged for 50 years, beginning at the stroke of midnight on July 1, 1997. Today we have not even reached the halfway point of 50 years, but many people have been wondering whether the innovative institutional arrangement will stay beyond 2047. Although late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping declared back in the day that “one country, two systems” would remain unchanged after the 50th anniversary of the HKSAR, many people are still worried because the city has been rocked by political disputes, including Hong Kong independence advocacy, and the central authorities may find it hard to keep the “two systems” in its current form.
To answer this question we need to know the rationale behind the decision to keep “one country, two systems” unchanged for 50 years and whether this rationale has changed.
When Deng put forward the idea of “unchanged for 50 years”, he emphasized the premise: “Two things will remain unchanged”. He said Hong Kong can “keep its capitalist system and way of life unchanged for 50 years or beyond only if the mainland keeps its socialist system unchanged.” That means Hong Kong’s system will remain unchanged as long as the mainland’s remains unchanged. “What will happen to Hong Kong when the mainland’s socialism with Chinese characteristics under the leadership of the Communist Party of China is changed? That would be the end of Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability.” What then is the ultimate determinant to prove that the mainland remains unchanged? According to Deng, it is the socialist system and policy of reform and opening-up.
Deng was confident that “one country, two systems” would stay beyond 2047, as it coincides with his “three-step development strategy”, which aims to build the country into a moderately developed nation by the middle of the 21st century, not far from the end of “unchanged for 50 years”. By then the main body of the country would have become much stronger and more capable of ensuring regional stability than today. Why would anyone want to change the system then?
What Deng did not foresee back then is that China’s rapid development would exceed his expectations by so much as to have achieved the “three-step development strategy” more than 20 years ahead of schedule. That is why the CPC adjusted the goal of the “three-step development strategy” at its 19th National Congress (Oct 18-24, 2017) and now aims to turn China into a modernized, strong country by the middle of this century. General Secretary Xi Jinping, who is also president of the nation, has emphasized more than once in recent years that the flag of socialism with Chinese characteristics will never change and the national strategy of reform and opening-up must continue no matter what. At its 19th National Congress, the CPC also named “one country, two systems” part of the fundamental strategy in national governance and handling State affairs. The speedy development of the mainland has boosted the confidence of the central government in upholding “one country, two systems”, which is why we are sure the central government truly hopes it will remain unchanged long after 50 years.
As such, the real question is with Hong Kong itself. Will Hong Kong remain unchanged? If attempts by some people to get rid of “one country” and keep “two systems” only continue, with separatists conspiring openly or otherwise with anti-China forces overseas to undermine the mainland’s socialist system, it would be extremely hard to maintain “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong for 50 years, let alone beyond 2047.
It may be too early to talk about 2047. But when we consider whether or not to keep Hong Kong’s current system, we may refer to a precondition written in the preamble of the Basic Law — the history and realities of Hong Kong. Prior to Hong Kong’s return to the motherland, the decision to implement “one country, two systems” and keep it “unchanged for 50 years” was based on the city’s history and realities. Therefore, the same logic is applicable when we look beyond 2047. By 2047, if the country, including Hong Kong, remains prosperous and stable, and the “two systems” maintain a harmonious and complementary relationship, it is of course in the best interest of all parties concerned that “one country, two systems” is here to stay.
Although “no change for 50 years” enshrined in the Basic Law should be read literally, it may be seen as another way of saying “unchanged for a long time”. Deng Xiaoping once explained, “Fifty years is just figurative speech, meaning (‘one country, two systems’) would remain unchanged beyond 50 years.” He added that “in the first 50 years, it must not be changed; but after that, it would not be necessary to change.” We sincerely hope his prediction will come true.