Policy change unlikely, but would benefit US
Although US President Donald Trump has not conceded defeat in the presidential election, he recently acknowledged the possibility for the first time. Normally the political infighting on the other side of the Pacific Ocean during a presidential election has little to do with China, except for the two candidates’ attempts to out-do each other in their China-bashing on the campaign trail.
Unfortunately, that appears to no longer be the case this time, because many of the political hardballs the US administration is reportedly preparing to roll out in the next few weeks are China-related.
According to reports, the Trump administration plans to announce a slew of tough anti-China policies, with the intention of either further intensifying his administration’s anti-China campaign if he conjures up another four years in the White House or else consolidating his political legacy and making it irreversible, should he end up vacating the property, as in all probability he will.
But with trade being perhaps the last remaining link between China and the US amid the recent tensions, the new strikes the administration is reportedly planning will guarantee that the ChinaUS relationship remains strained whoever occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW.
Even trade’s long-standing role as “ballast” for the China-US relationship may be at risk. For not only is Washington considering new sanctions on Chinese entities and individuals, as well as imposing further restrictions on US investment in China-related businesses, but the White House just named one of Trump’s ardent supporters as a principal deputy assistant secretary for export administration at the Department of Commerce, a position specifically created to push through hard-line policies on China.
What happens in the next few weeks may have grave consequences for both countries.
Even if Joe Biden becomes president, as expected, he is unlikely to change any of the Trump administration’s harsh policies toward China, as he knows there is broad anti-China sentiment among lawmakers of both parties.
Although it is anticipated that a Biden administration would take a more measured approach in its policy toward China than the Trump administration, he will not want to trigger the congressional pushback that is inevitable should he try to roll back any of the actions that the Trump administration has taken against China.
It is doubtful that he would want to anyway, as he has been fairly hawkish on China in the past.
Yet no matter whether it is Trump or Biden who sits in the Oval Office, he should not ignore the collateral damage to US national interests the ill-informed China policies will do.
Before the election winner is sworn in as president for the next four years, he should take some time to consider the benefits of more cordial relations with China.