中国农业发展70年:成就、经验、* 未来思路与对策

China Economist - - Articles - 杜志雄 肖卫东中国社会科学院农村发展研究所山东师范大学公共管理学院

摘 要:新中国成立70年来,中国农业发展呈现出了翻天覆地的巨大变化,实现了举世瞩目的跨越发展,突出表现为农业产量产值取得巨大进步,农林牧渔业全面繁荣、协调发展;农业生产条件实现巨大飞跃;新型农业经营体系不断健全;农业发展新动能基本形成;农业对外开放成就跃居世界前列;农村居民生活正向全面小康迈进。党对“三农”工作的领导、农村基本经营制度、支持保护政策、农业科技创新、农产品市场化改革等是中国农业发展70年的基本经验。进入新时代,未来推进农业高质量发展,须坚持绿色发展理念和质量兴农战略,大力拓展农业多功能;努力培育新型农业经营与服务主体,加快发展多种形式规模经营;深入推进农业资本化运作;加快推进农村一二三产业融合发展;构建农业对外开放新格局。

关键词:农业发展;成就;经验;未来思路JEL分类号: N55; Q10

2019年即将迎来中华人民共和国成立70周年。70年中国农业发展,尽管艰难曲折,但在实现有限资源基础上养活、养好中国人的任务和目标上,同样成就卓著。70年来,特别是改革开放以来,中国农业发展,不仅见证了农业改革开放的伟大成就,也为未来可持续发展积累了大量弥足珍贵的实践经验。本文尝试总结新中国成立70年来中国农业的发展成就与基本经验、存在的问题与挑战以及未来中国农业发展的思路与对策。

一、新中国成立以来70年的农业发展成就与问题 (一)农业产量产值取得了巨大进步,农林牧渔业全面繁荣协调发展

2017年,粮食总产量达66160.72万吨,比1949年(11318.0万吨)增长4.85倍,年均增长2.43%;比1978年增长1.17倍,年均增长2.10%。尤其是,2004~2015年,粮食生产实现历史性的“十二连增”;2012~2017年,粮食产量持续稳定在6亿吨以上。棉花、油料亦呈现快速增长态势,2017年的产量分别达565.30万吨、3475.24万吨,分别比1949年增长11.73倍、12.55倍,年均增长率分别达5.44%、5.59%。糖料、园林水果、畜产品、水产

In 2017, China’s to­tal grain out­put reached 661.6072 mil­lion tons, up 4.85 times over 1949 (113.18 mil­lion tons), up 2.43% per year; it grew by 1.17 times over 1978, up 2.10% per year. In par­tic­u­lar, China’s grain pro­duc­tion in­creased for twelve con­sec­u­tive years from 2004 to 2015 - a his­toric achieve­ment. Over the 2012- 2017 pe­riod, China’s an­nual grain pro­duc­tion steadily ex­ceeded 600 mil­lion tons. Pro­duc­tion of cot­ton and oil-bear­ing crops grew rapidly, reach­ing 5.653 mil­lion tons and 34.7524 mil­lion tons in 2017 re­spec­tively, up 11.73 and 12.55 times over 1949, or 5.44% and 5.59% per year re­spec­tively. Pro­duc­tion of sugar, gar­den fruits, live­stock, aquatic prod­ucts and other high-value agri­cul­tural prod­ucts in­creased even faster. In 2017, China’s sugar pro­duc­tion in­creased by 39.09 times over 1949, up 27.50% per year - the fastest growth among all crops. Mean­while, the an­nual growth rate of aquatic prod­ucts reached 8.32%. Dur­ing 1949-2017, China’s to­tal meat pro­duc­tion in­creased by 7.27% per year. Dur­ing 1978-2017, China’s dairy pro­duc­tion in­creased by 9.64% per year. Dur­ing 1982-2017, China’s egg pro­duc­tion in­creased by 7.42% per year. Dur­ing 1949-2016, China’s gar­den fruits in­creased by 9.09% per year. Since 1949, China has tremen­dously in­creased its pro­duc­tion of key agri­cul­tural prod­ucts, in­clud­ing grain, cot­ton, oil-bear­ing crops, sugar, live­stock prod­ucts, fruits and aquatic prod­ucts, thus en­hanc­ing its food se­cu­rity. Such achieve­ments in agri­cul­ture made it pos­si­ble for China to feed 1/5 of the world’s pop­u­la­tion, and pro­vided im­por­tant re­sources for its in­dus­tri­al­iza­tion and ur­ban­iza­tion.

Gross out­put value of agri­cul­ture, forestry, live­stock and fish­ery1 has rapidly in­creased from 46.1 bil­lion yuan in 1952 (cur­rent-year price, the same be­low) to 10,933.172 bil­lion yuan in 2017, with a nom­i­nal an­nual av­er­age growth rate of 11.22%. Since 1979, China’s agri­cul­tural gross out­put value has

品等高值农产品产量以更快的速度增长。其中,2017年的糖料产量比1949年增长了39.09倍,年均增长率达27.50%,是增速最快的农作物。同期,水产品产量年均增长率达8.32%。1949~2017年,肉类总产量年均增长7.27%。1978~2017年,牛奶产量年均增长9.64%。1982~2017年,禽蛋产量年均增长7.42%。1949~2016年,园林水果产量年均增长9.09%。新中国成立以来,中国粮食、棉花、油料、糖料、畜产品、水果和水产品等重要农产品生产能力显著增强,国家粮食安全保障能力显著提升,农产品市场供给取得了巨大进步,不仅解决了占世界1/5人口的吃饭问题,还为加快推进工业化、城镇化进程提供了重要支撑。

1

农林牧渔业总产值 由1952年的461亿元(当年价,下同)逐年快速增长到2017年的109331.72亿元,年均名义增长率达11.22%;改革开放以来( 1979~ 2017年)的农业总产值增速达12.14%,是改革开放以前(1952~1978年)增速(5.26%)的2.31倍。其中,农业总产值、林业总产值、牧业总产值和渔业总产值的年均名义增长率分别达10.13%、12.60%、13.45%和16.40%。新中国成立以来农林牧渔业总产值及各项构成年均10%以上的高速增长,创造了世界农业发展的奇迹。

从各行业产值占比看(见图1),农林牧渔业结构不断优化。1952~2017年,农业产值占比不断下降,下降了32.80个百分点;牧业产值占比和渔业产值占比不断上升,分别上升了15.58个百分点和9.29个百分点;林业产值占比基本保持稳定,尤其是自改革开放以来一直在4%左右徘徊。由此,经过70年的逐步发展和深刻调

been grow­ing at 12.14% per year, which is 2.31 times the growth rate of 5.26% in the pre-re­form era (1952-1978). Nom­i­nal an­nual growth rates of agri­cul­tural, forestry, live­stock and fish­ery gross out­put val­ues reached 10.13%, 12.60%, 13.45% and 16.40% re­spec­tively dur­ing the same pe­riod of time. The dou­ble-digit growth of China’s agri­cul­ture, forestry, live­stock and fish­ery out­put val­ues over the past seven decades since 1949 is noth­ing short of a mir­a­cle in world agri­cul­tural his­tory.

Judg­ing by the shares of var­i­ous sec­tors in to­tal out­put value (see Fig­ure 1), there has been a con­tin­u­ous im­prove­ment in the struc­ture of agri­cul­ture, forestry, live­stock and fish­ery sec­tors. Over the 1952-2017 pe­riod, agri­cul­ture has rep­re­sented a fall­ing share, down 32.80 per­cent­age points. Those of live­stock and fish­ery have steadily in­creased, up 15.58 and 9.29 per­cent­age points re­spec­tively. Forestry out­put value has ac­counted for a sta­ble share of around 4% since 1978. Over the past seven decades, China’s agri­cul­ture has evolved from crop farm­ing to all-round de­vel­op­ment of agri­cul­ture, forestry, live­stock and fish­ery sec­tors.

1.2 Strides in Agri­cul­tural Pro­duc­tion Con­di­tions

Since 1949, the Party and gov­ern­ment have strived to de­velop agri­cul­tural ma­chin­ery and build farm­land and water con­ser­vancy fa­cil­i­ties, greatly im­prov­ing China’s agri­cul­tural pro­duc­tion con­di­tions.

First, China’s agri­cul­tural mech­a­niza­tion has been im­prov­ing. In 1949, China’s agri­cul­tural ma­chin­ery only had a to­tal power of 81,000 kW. By 2017, this num­ber in­creased to 987.835 mil­lion kW, up 15.15% per year. To­tal power of agri­cul­tural ma­chin­ery grew rapidly (see Fig­ure 2). Over the past four decades of re­form and open­ing-up, there have been rapid in­creases in the power of agri­cul­tural ma­chin­ery per hectare and farmer, i.e. from 1.18 kW and 0.41 kW in 1978 to 8.12 kW and 4.72 kW in

整,农业内部实现了由“以种植业为主、以粮为纲”的高度单一结构向“农林牧渔全面、协调发展”的立体式复合型结构转变。

(二)农业生产条件持续改善并实现巨大飞跃,农业发展基础越来越稳固

新中国成立以来,党和政府大力发展农业机械和兴建农田水利基础设施,农业生产条件实现由薄弱到明显增强的巨大飞跃,对现代农业发展的支撑能力显著增强。

一是农业机械化水平持续提升。1949年,农业机械总动力仅为8.10万千瓦;到2017年,达98783.35万千瓦,年均增长率达15.15%,农业机械总动力快速增长(见图2)。尤其是改革开放40年以来,每公顷耕地拥有农机动力和每个农业劳动力拥有农机动力也呈快速上升趋势,分别由1978年的1.18千瓦和0.41千瓦快速上升到2017年的8.12千瓦和4.72千瓦,年均上升5.25%和6.52%。

伴随农业机械总动力的快速增长,农业生产用机水平持续上升(见表1),全国农作物耕种收综合机械化水平在2017年达到65.60%,比2001年提高33.42个百分点,年均提高1.97个百分点。其中,机耕水平年均提高1.97个百分点,机播水平年均提高1.65个百分点,机收水平年均提高2.30个百分点。更为重要的是,农业机械服务范围涵盖了农业生产、加工、流通等产前、产中、产后各个环节(江泽林,2018),作业领域由粮食作物延伸

2017, up 5.25% and 6.52% per year re­spec­tively.

Rapid growth in the to­tal power of agri­cul­tural ma­chin­ery was ac­com­pa­nied by a con­tin­u­ous rise in the use of agri­cul­tural pro­duc­tion ma­chin­ery (see Ta­ble 1). Over­all crop plant­ing and har­vest­ing mech­a­niza­tion in China reached 65.60% in 2017, up 32.49 per­cent­age points over 2001 or 1.97 per­cent­age points per year. Specif­i­cally, mech­a­nized ploughing, sow­ing and har­vest­ing ra­tios in­creased by 1.95, 1.65 and 2.30 per­cent­age points per year re­spec­tively. Agri­cul­tural ma­chin­ery ser­vices have cov­ered var­i­ous pro­duc­tion, pro­cess­ing and dis­tri­bu­tion links (Jiang, 2018), and the ap­pli­ca­tion of agri­cul­tural ma­chin­ery has ex­tended from grain crops to cash crops, from field agri­cul­ture to pro­tected agri­cul­ture, and from crop farm­ing to live­stock, prod­uct pro­cess­ing and dis­tri­bu­tion.

Sec­ond, ef­fec­tive ir­ri­ga­tion area con­tin­u­ously in­creased in China. By the end of 2017, there were 4,666 large and medium-sized reser­voirs in China, which in­creased by 1,542 over 2000 (3,124). Ef­fec­tive ir­ri­ga­tion area in China in­creased from 19.959 mil­lion hectares in 1952 to 67.8156 mil­lion hectares in 2017, up 2.40 times, or 1.26% per year. Ap­pli­ca­tion of water-ef­fi­cient ir­ri­ga­tion tech­nolo­gies such as spray ir­ri­ga­tion and drip ir­ri­ga­tion since the dawn of the 21st cen­tury led to a surge in water­ef­fi­cient ir­ri­ga­tion area, which rose from 16.389 mil­lion hectares in 2000 to 34.319 mil­lion hectares in 2017, up 4.55% per year. In 2017, water ef­fi­cient ir­ri­ga­tion area ac­counted for 50.61% of to­tal ef­fec­tive ir­ri­ga­tion area in China.

到经济作物,由大田农业延伸到设施农业,由种植业延伸到养殖业、农产品加工业和流通业。

二是有效灌溉面积持续增加。到2017年底,全国共有大中型水库4666座,比2000年(3124座)增加1542座。有效灌溉面积由1952年的1995.90万公顷增加到2017年的6781.56万公顷,增加了2.40倍,年均增加1.26%。尤其是进入21世纪以来,随着喷灌、滴灌等节水灌溉技术的推广应用,节水灌溉面积快速增加,由2000年的1638.90万公顷快速增加到2017年的3431.90万公顷,年均增加4.55%。2017年,节水灌溉面积占有效灌溉面积的比重达50.61%。

(三)农业生产经营主体和经营形式多元化发展,新型农业经营体系不断健全

改革开放前,我国主要采取合作化(1949~1958年)和人民公社化(1958~1978年)的农业组织形式,经营主体(主要为农民集体)、经营形式和经营体系(主要为集体经营)都较为单一。改革开放后,家庭承包经营(1978年至今)成为主要农业生产组织形式。在家庭承包经营这一组织形式的基础上,由于农业劳动力向城镇和非农产业转移,农村改革不断深化,承包地快速流转,越来越多的农产品开始走向规模化、专业化、集约化、社会

1.3 Di­ver­si­fi­ca­tion of Agri­cul­tural Op­er­a­tors

In the pre-re­form era, China adopted co­op­er­a­tives (1949-1958) and Peo­ple’s Com­munes (1958-1978) as pri­mary forms of agri­cul­tural or­ga­ni­za­tion. Agri­cul­ture was op­er­ated by farm­ers’ col­lec­tives. Af­ter the re­form, the house­hold con­tract op­er­a­tion (1978-present) has be­come a pri­mary form of agri­cul­tural or­ga­ni­za­tion. With the mi­gra­tion of ru­ral la­bor to cities and the trans­fer of ru­ral land con­tracts, largescale agri­cul­ture be­gan to hold sway. New agri­cul­tural op­er­a­tors and ser­vice en­ti­ties, such as pro­fes­sional farmer house­holds, fam­ily farms, farm­ers’ co­op­er­a­tives, lead­ing en­ter­prises and agri­cul­tural op­er­a­tion and ser­vice en­ti­ties, have been emerg­ing and thriv­ing. New forms of agri­cul­tural op­er­a­tion have been grow­ing. Ac­cord­ing to the Min­istry of Agri­cul­ture2, by the end of 2016, there were 877,000 fam­ily farms of var­i­ous types in China, in­clud­ing 445,000 filed on record at the de­part­ments of agri­cul­ture. There were 1.93 mil­lion farm­ers’ co­op­er­a­tives and 1.15 mil­lion so­cial ser­vice or­ga­ni­za­tions, in­clud­ing 225,000 agri­cul­tural trustee­ship or­ga­ni­za­tions, as well as 130,000 lead­ing en­ter­prises.

Among new agri­cul­tural op­er­a­tion and ser­vice en­ti­ties, large farm­ing and live­stock- rais­ing house­holds and fam­ily farms are the ba­sic en­ti­ties and back­bone for the pro­duc­tion of key agri­cul­tural prod­ucts such as grain. They play a ba­sic role in agri­cul­tural pro­duc­tion and op­er­a­tion ac­tiv­i­ties. Through co­op­er­a­tive op­er­a­tion, farm­ers’ co­op­er­a­tives or­ga­nize, serve and lead farm­ers. Lead­ing en­ter­prises set an ex­am­ple in man­u­fac­tur­ing pre­mium agri­cul­tural prod­ucts. Agri­cul­tural op­er­a­tion and ser­vice en­ti­ties of­fer ser­vices to pro­duc­ers of all types. Since 1949, farmer house­holds have re­placed farm­ers’ col­lec­tives as dom­i­nant agri­cul­tural op­er­a­tors in China. There has been an in­creas­ing di­ver­si­fi­ca­tion of agri­cul­tural op­er­a­tors with dif­fer­ent spe­cial­iza­tions. In this man­ner, China has formed a mod­ern agri­cul­tural op­er­a­tion sys­tem fea­tur­ing var­i­ous op­er­a­tional modes - a nat­u­ral re­sult in the course of its agri­cul­tural mod­ern­iza­tion (Chen, 2016) and suc­ces­sion (Zhang, 2018).

1.4 New Forms of Agribusi­ness Drive Agri­cul­tural De­vel­op­ment

In the early 1980s, China’s agri­cul­tural pro­duc­tion was dom­i­nated by pri­mary prod­ucts. The use of agri­cul­tural fa­cil­i­ties was very lim­ited, and mul­ti­func­tional agri­cul­ture such as leisure agri­cul­ture ac­counted for a neg­li­gi­ble share (Jiang, 2018). Agri­cul­tural pro­cess­ing in­dus­try de­vel­oped slowly (Han, 2001). In 1952, the to­tal value of agri­cul­tural pro­cess­ing in­dus­try stood at 19.35 bil­lion yuan, whose ra­tio to China’s to­tal agri­cul­tural out­put value was 0.42:1. In 1985, this ra­tio in­creased to 0.77:1 (Feng, Cai, et al., 2016). Af­ter re­form and open­ing-up in 1978, China has adopted the house­hold con­tract re­spon­si­bil­ity sys­tem, re­formed its agri­cul­tural prod­uct pur­chase and dis­tri­bu­tion sys­tem, and en­cour­aged ru­ral SMEs to thrive. These changes have led to new forms of agribusi­ness af­ter the dawn of the new cen­tury, which have be­come key driv­ers of agri­cul­tural and ru­ral de­vel­op­ment in China.

Agri­cul­tural pro­cess­ing in­dus­try: By the end of 2017, there were 81,000 large agri­cul­tural pro­cess­ing en­ter­prises in China with a to­tal rev­enue of 19.4 tril­lion yuan from their pri­mary busi­nesses and a to­tal profit of 1.3 tril­lion yuan3. In 2015, the pro­cess­ing ra­tio of China’s agri­cul­tural pro­duce reached 65%. The ra­tio be­tween the to­tal out­put value of agri­cul­tural pro­cess­ing in­dus­try and that of agri­cul­ture was 2.20:14, up 4.24 times over 1952 and 1.86 times over 1985.

Ru­ral e-com­merce: Ac­cord­ing to MOFCOM data5, China’s ru­ral on­line re­tail vol­ume in­creased from 180 bil­lion yuan in 2014 to 1,244.88 bil­lion yuan in 2017, up 96.23% per year. Ru­ral on­line re­tail sales vol­ume as a share in na­tional re­tail sales vol­ume in­creased from 6% in 2014 to 17.40% in 2017, up

化生产和经营。专业大户、家庭农场、农民合作社、龙头企业、农业经营性服务组织等新型农业经营主体和服

2务主体不断涌现,并逐步发展壮大,各种新的农业经营形式不断成长。农业部统计数据 显示,截至2016年底,全国各类家庭农场87.7万家,其中纳入农业部门名录管理的家庭农场44.50万家;农民合作社193万家;各类社会化服务组织115万家,其中,从事农业生产托管的服务组织22.5万家;各类龙头企业13万家。

在新型农业经营主体和服务主体中,种养大户和家庭农场是粮食等重要农产品生产的基本主体和主力军,实行家庭经营,在农业生产经营活动中发挥着基础性作用;农民合作社主要开展合作经营,从而具有联系农民、组织农民、服务农民、带动农民的独特优势和功能;龙头企业主要开展公司经营,在高端农产品生产方面具有显著的引导示范效应和辐射带动效应;农业经营性服务组织着力为各类农业生产主体提供农业服务。由此,新中国成立以来,中国的农业经营主体经历了由改革开放前的农民集体占主导的格局到改革开放初期相对同质性的农民家庭占主导的格局的演变,再到现阶段的多元化经营主体并存、分工协作的格局的转变;以农户家庭经营为基础、合作与联合为纽带、社会化服务为支撑、多种经营形式共同发展的立体式复合型现代农业经营体系日益形成、不断健全。这既是农业向现代化演进过程中的必然(陈锡文,2016),又是历史传承的结果(张红宇,2018)。

(四)农业新产业新业态蓬勃涌现,农业发展新动能基本成形

直到改革开放之初,中国农业产业仍然沿袭农林牧渔业原始产品生产为主的传统格局。设施型农业微乎其微,休闲农业等农业多功能性利用产业的产值也很小(蒋和平,2018),农产品加工业发展比较缓慢(韩俊, 2001)。1952年,农产品加工业总产值193.50亿元,与农业总产值之比为0.42:1;1985年,农产品加工业总产值与农业总产值之比为0.77∶1(冯伟、蔡学斌等,2016)。改革开放后,由于家庭承包经营制度的确立和完善发展、农产品购销体制改革和农村中小企业的快速发展,农业产业极大地突破了传统的农林牧渔业原始产品生产的范畴,新产业新业态蓬勃涌现。特别是21世纪以来,农业新产业新业态加快发展,已经成为农业农村发展新活力和新动能的重要来源。一是农产品加工业迈上新台阶。截至2017年底,规模以上农产品加工业企业达8.1万家,实现主营业务收

3

入19.4万亿元,实现利润总额1.3万亿元 。2015年,农产品加工转化率达65%,农产品加工业总产值与农业总

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产值之比达2.20∶1 ,比1952年提高了4.24倍,比1985年提高了1.86倍。

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二是农村电子商务高速发展。商务部统计数据 显示,农村地区网络零售额由2014年的1800亿元逐年快速增长到2017年的12448.80亿元,年均增长96.23%;农村网络零售额在全国网络零售总额中的比重由2014年的6%逐年提升到2017年的17.40%,年均提升3.80个百分点;2017年,全国农产品网络零售额为2436.6亿

3.80 per­cent­age points per year. In 2017, the on­line re­tail sales vol­ume of China’s agri­cul­tural prod­ucts reached 243.66 bil­lion yuan, an in­crease of 53.30% over 2016. By the end of 2017, China had a to­tal of 9.856 mil­lion ru­ral on­line stores, and 2,118 Alibaba Taobao vil­lages. There were 585 bulk agri­cul­tural prod­uct e-com­merce mar­kets, and the e-com­merce trans­ac­tion vol­ume of fresh agri­cul­tural prod­ucts reached 139.13 bil­lion yuan.

Leisure agri­cul­ture and coun­try­side tourism: In 2017, there were 330,000 leisure tourism and coun­try­side tourism op­er­a­tors in China6, which em­ployed nine mil­lion peo­ple and re­ceived 2.2 bil­lion tourists. Rev­enues from leisure tourism and coun­try­side tourism grew from 300 bil­lion yuan in 2014 to 620 bil­lion yuan in 2017, up 28.33% per year, cre­at­ing jobs and in­comes to over seven mil­lion farm­ing house­holds7.

Ob­vi­ously, pri­mary prod­ucts no longer ac­count for a lion’s share in China’s agri­cul­ture. In­stead, China has formed a com­plete agri­cul­ture in­dus­try chain en­com­pass­ing pro­duc­tion, pro­cess­ing, dis­tri­bu­tion and other value-adding links. Mul­ti­func­tional agri­cul­ture such as leisure agri­cul­ture and coun­try­side tourism have emerged as new forms of agribusi­ness.

1.5 Agri­cul­ture Open­ing-up: from Iso­la­tion to a Lead­ing Trad­ing Na­tion

In the early stage af­ter 1949, China was largely iso­lated from the rest of the world, and its trade in agri­cul­tural prod­ucts was ex­tremely lim­ited. Af­ter re­form and open­ing-up in 1978 and par­tic­u­larly its WTO en­try in 2001, China has made great strides in open­ing up its agri­cul­tural sec­tor, both in terms of im­ports and ex­ports, be­com­ing a lead­ing trad­ing na­tion in agri­cul­tural prod­ucts.

Rapid growth in agri­cul­tural trade vol­ume: China’s to­tal im­ports and ex­ports of agri­cul­tural prod­ucts in­creased from 25.42 bil­lion US dol­lars in 1995 to 201.39 bil­lion US dol­lars in 2017, up 6.92 times or 10.64% per year. Specif­i­cally, China’s agri­cul­tural im­ports grew by 10.61 times, or 13.46% per year; ex­ports in­creased by 4.18 times, or 8.11% per year (see Fig­ure 3). China has be­come the world’s third­largest trad­ing na­tion in agri­cul­tural prod­ucts, the largest agri­cul­tural im­porter, and the sixth largest agri­cul­tural ex­porter in the world. Since 2004, China’s agri­cul­tural trade sur­plus has been turned into a per­sis­tent deficit (see Fig­ure 3), which in­creased from 4.64 bil­lion US dol­lars in 2004 to 50.33 bil­lion US dol­lars in 2017, up 9.85 times.

In­tro­duc­tion of for­eign cap­i­tal, tech­nol­ogy and know-how: Over the pe­riod of 1997-2016, the ac­tual for­eign di­rect in­vest­ment (FDI) and to­tal in­vest­ment by for­eign-funded firms in China’s agri­cul­tural sec­tor8 sub­stan­tially in­creased from 628 mil­lion US dol­lars and 12.5 bil­lion US dol­lars in 1997 to 1.898 bil­lion US dol­lars and 81.4 bil­lion US dol­lars in 2016, up 8.08% and 12.04% per year re­spec­tively. Cu­mu­la­tive ac­tual FDI stood at 24.278 bil­lion US dol­lars, and to­tal in­vest­ment by for­eign-funded firms reached 519.2 bil­lion US dol­lars. Im­ple­men­ta­tion of Sino-for­eign co­op­er­a­tion projects brought valu­able seed sub­stance re­sources, tech­nolo­gies, ma­chin­ery, man­age­rial ex­pe­ri­ence and in­tel­lec­tual re­sources to China’s agri­cul­tural in­dus­try.

Strong mo­men­tum of out­bound di­rect in­vest­ment (ODI): China’s agri­cul­tural ODI flow grew from 290 mil­lion US dol­lars in 2004 to 3.287 bil­lion US dol­lars in 2016, up 33.43% per year. ODI stock ex­panded from 834 mil­lion US dol­lars in 2004 to 14.885 bil­lion US dol­lars in 2016, up 30.13% per year. By the end of 2016, China’s agri­cul­tural ODI stock ex­ceeded 180 bil­lion yuan; China cre­ated over 1,300

9 firms in over 100 coun­tries and re­gions in the sec­tors of agri­cul­ture, forestry, live­stock and fish­ery.

元,比2016年增长53.30%;截至2017年底,全国共有农村网店985.6万家,阿里巴巴淘宝村2118个,农产品大宗商品电子交易市场585家;生鲜农产品电商交易额1391.30亿元。

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三是休闲农业和乡村旅游蓬勃兴起。统计数据 显示,2017年,全国休闲农业和乡村旅游类经营主体达33万家,从业人员900万人,年接待游客22亿人次;经营收入由2014年的3000亿元逐年快速增长到2017年的6200亿元,年均增长28.33%,带动700多万户农民家庭就业和增收。

由此可见,中国农业已经实现由纯粹农业原始产品生产向农产品生产、加工、销售等全产业链各个环节共同发展,由单纯的农产品生产功能向文化传承、生态保护和旅游体验等农业多功能开发利用的双重转变。

(五)农业对外经济实现了从封闭半封闭到全方位开放的伟大历史转折,对外贸易规模跃居世界前列

新中国成立初期,中国农产品贸易规模极其有限,农业对外开放基本上处于封闭半封闭状态。改革开放尤其是加入W T O以来,农业对外开放步伐明显加快、全面推进,从大规模“引进来”到大踏步“走出去”,一跃成为世界农业对外开放大国,开放质量大幅提高。

一是农产品贸易规模持续快速增长。中国农产品进出口贸易总额由1995年的254.20亿美元增长到2017年的2013.90亿美元,增长6.92倍,年均增长10.64%。其中,进口额增长10.61倍,年均增长13.46%;出口额增长4.18倍,年均增长8.11%。目前,中国已成为世界第三大农产品贸易国、第一大农产品进口国,出口额居世界第六位。需要注意的是,从2004年起,中国农产品贸易长期顺差转变为持续性逆差,并且呈扩大态势,由2004年的46.40亿美元扩大到2017年的503.30亿美元,扩大了9.85倍(见图3)。

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二是农业“引进来”由引资向引技、引智领域不断拓展,成效显著。1997~2016年,农业 实际利用外商直接投资额、外商投资企业投资总额呈现增长趋势,外资利用规模不断扩大,分别由1997年的6.28亿美元、125亿美元增长到2016年的18.98亿美元、814亿美元,年均增长8.08%、12.04%,累计实际利用外商直接投资额242.78亿美元、外商投资企业投资总额5192亿美元。在引技、引智方面,通过实施一批重大联合项目,引进了大量农业种质资源、技术、农机装备、管理经验和智力资源。

三是农业大踏步“走出去”,对外直接投资增长势头强劲。农业对外投资流量由2004年2.90亿美元增长到2016年的32.87亿美元,年均增长33.43%;投资存量由2004年的8.34亿美元扩张到2016年的148.85亿美元,年均增长30.13%。截至2016年底,中国农业对外投资存量超过1800亿元,在全球100多个国家和地区设立农

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林牧渔类境外企业1300多家 。

1.6 Im­prov­ing Liv­ing Stan­dards in the Coun­try­side

Over the seven decades since 1949, ru­ral res­i­dents in China saw a rapid in­crease in their in­comes and con­sumer power. Re­mark­able progress has been made in poverty re­duc­tion. Ru­ral res­i­dents have made a his­toric leap from poverty to mod­er­ate pros­per­ity.

Farm­ers’ in­come grew steadily, and or­di­nary house­holds started to earn prop­erty-re­lated in­comes. Ru­ral house­hold per capita dis­pos­able in­come10 in­creased from 43.80 yuan in 1949 to 13,432 yuan in 2017 (see Ta­ble 2), up 305.67 times. Specif­i­cally, the per capita an­nual nom­i­nal growth was 3.9% dur­ing 1949-1978, and surged to 12.75% dur­ing 1979-2017. Since the 18th CPC Na­tional Congress, the Chi­nese gov­ern­ment at var­i­ous lev­els have strived to in­crease house­hold in­come and par­tic­u­larly prop­erty-re­lated in­come, and cre­ated new growth sources of ru­ral house­hold in­come. In 1993, av­er­age prop­erty-re­lated in­come of ru­ral house­holds was only 7.02 yuan. In 2017, this num­ber in­creased to 302.96 yuan (see Ta­ble 2), with an an­nual av­er­age nom­i­nal growth of 24.85%.

Ru­ral res­i­dents saw im­prove­ments in their liv­ing con­di­tions and up­grades in their con­sump­tion struc­ture. Over the pe­riod of 1949-1978, ru­ral per capita con­sump­tion in­creased by 1.9 times, with

11 an an­nual av­er­age nom­i­nal growth of 3.70%. In 2017, ru­ral per capita con­sump­tion spend­ing stood at 10,954.53 yuan, up 66.54 times over 1980 (162.20 yuan) in nom­i­nal terms, or 12.29% per year.

新中国成立70年来,农村居民收入持续较快增长,消费水平持续提高,消费结构不断优化升级,扶贫工作成效显著,农村居民生活实现了由贫困到总体小康的历史性跨越,正向全面小康迈进。

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一是农村居民收入持续较快增长,财产性收入进入寻常百姓家。农村居民人均可支配收入 由1949年的43.80元增长到2017年的13432元,增长了305.67倍。其中,1949~1978年年均名义增长3.9%,1979~2017年年均名义增长12.75%,增速大幅提高。尤其是党的十八大以来,各级政府多措并举,从持续增加居民收入尤其是财产性收入着手,全力为农村居民增收注入新动力。农村居民拥有的财产性收入由无到有、由少变多,由1993年的7.02元增长到2017年的302.96元,年均名义增长24.85%(见表2)。二是农村居民生活条件持续改善,消费结构不断优化升级。1949~1978年,农村居民人均消费支出增长

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了1.9倍,年均名义增长3.70% 。2017年,农村居民人均消费支出10954.53元,比1980年(162.20元)名义增长66.54倍,年均名义增长12.29%,比1949 1978年的年均名义增速高8.59个百分点。1949~1978年,农村居民恩格尔系数都在67%以上。2017年,农村居民恩格尔系数为31.20%,比改革开放前水平下降了近36个百分点。

This growth rate is higher than that of 1949-1978 by 8.59 per­cent­age points. Ru­ral En­gel’s co­ef­fi­cient had been above 67% through­out the pe­riod of 1949-1978. In 2017, it fell to 31.20%, down al­most 36 per­cent­age points com­pared with the pre-re­form level. By the United Na­tions stan­dard of En­gel’s co­ef­fi­cient12, in 2017, ru­ral house­holds in China were rel­a­tively pros­per­ous and ex­pe­ri­enc­ing a con­sump­tion up­grade. In 2017, ru­ral per capita hous­ing con­struc­tion area had in­creased by 38.60 square me­ters over 1978. Own­er­ship rates of au­to­mo­biles, wash­ing ma­chines, re­frig­er­a­tors, color TV, air con­di­tion­ers, water heaters, mo­bile phones and com­put­ers per mil­lion house­holds have in­creased by 19.3, 86.3, 91.7, 120, 52.6, 62.5, 246.1 and 29.2 units re­spec­tively. Ru­ral per capita do­mes­tic tourism

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按照恩格尔系数联合国标准 ,2017年,农村居民生活处于相对富裕阶段,正向富裕阶段跨入,消费层次由温饱型向全面小康型转变。2017年,农村居民人均住房建筑面积比1978年增加了38.60平方米,住房条件大为改善;平均每百户拥有的家用汽车、洗衣机、电冰箱(柜)、彩色电视机、空调、热水器、移动电话、计算机分别增加到19.3辆、86.3台、91.7台、120台、52.6台、62.5台、246.1部、29.2台。农村居民人均国内旅游花费由1994年的54.90元上升到2017年的603.30元,旅游潜力不断释放。

三是扶贫成就举世瞩目。新中国成立初期到1978年,大多数农村居民生活处于绝对贫困状态,1978年,农村绝对贫困人口2.5亿人。改革开放尤其是党的十八大以来,中国全力、稳步实施精准扶贫精准脱贫战略和大

Fig­ure 1: Struc­tural Change in the Gross Out­put Value of China’s Agri­cul­ture, Forestry, Live­stock and Fish­ery Sec­tors (1952-2017)

图1:中国农林牧渔业总产值结构变化趋势(1952~2017年)

Fig­ure 2: Growth in the To­tal Power of Agri­cul­tural Ma­chin­ery in China (1949-2017)

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