中国社会保障70年：助推封闭型经济转向开放型经济
摘 要：新中国成立70年来，以1978年改革开放为历史转折点，中国实现了从封闭经济向开放经济的转型，社会保障制度也从封闭经济下的传统社会保障制度成功转型为适应开放经济的现代社会保障制度。本文基于阶段性特征对社会保障制度转型做了“两个时期、七个阶段”的划分。传统社会保障制度建立在公有经济一统天下、经济高度集中和“充分就业”的前提下，适应封闭经济下的所有制结构、收入分配制度和劳动力制度；现代社会保障制度为适应开放经济发展的需要而生，通过调动消费和投资这两大经济变量的作用、促进劳动力自由流动并提高劳动者的生产效率等方式为促进开放经济发展做出了巨大贡献。展望未来，现代社会保障制度需要进一步深化供给侧改革，为促进开放经济向高质量发展做出贡献。
关键词：封闭经济；开放经济；社会保障制度；生产要素；劳动力市场JEL分类号： L60, O14Q10
2019年是新中国成立70周年，也是决胜全面建成小康社会的关键之年。回顾新中国70年的历史，总结、反思中国社会保障制度转型发展的经验和教训，对社会保障制度未来的发展改革以及最终实现全面建成小康社会的现代化建设目标具有重要的战略意义。本文总结新了中国成立以来社会保障制度的发展历程，对比转型前后中国经济和社会保障制度的特征，并结合开放经济的特征对社会保障制度进行重新定位，以充分发挥中国现代社会保障制度作为一项生产要素的作用，进一步推动中国开放型经济体系向高质量发展。
需要特别说明的是，本文采用的是“大社会保障”概念，包括缴费型的社会保险制度和非缴费型的社会救助制度等，而不是仅讨论社会保险制度。
一、70年来中国经济与社会保障成功实现“双转型” （一）经济转型：从封闭型经济到开放型经济
新中国成立70年来，中国经历了两种不同的经济发展模式：封闭型计划经济模式和开放型市场经济模式，二者以1978年实行改革开放为界。在新中国成立之初，受国际政治形势影响，中国实行的是封闭型计划经
1. “Dual Transitions” of China’s Economy and Social Security in Seven Decades 1.1 Economic Transition: From a Closed Economy to an Open Economy
Over the past seven decades since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, China has experienced two economic development models, i.e., a closed planned economy and an open marketbased one, and the transition occurred in 1978 - a watershed year when the reform and opening-up program was launched. At the inception of the People’s Republic’s founding, China adopted a closed planned economy under the influence of international political situation at the time. In 1978, China embarked upon reform and opening up and started to transition from a planned and closed economy to an open socialist market economy.
Unlike a closed economy, an open economy features the free flow of labor, land, capital, technology, among other production factors. In a closed economy, however, not only is labor flow absent, but the labor market barely exists as well. “Open economy” is “mutually beneficial, balanced, secure and
1 efficient” and comprises various elements such as an open economic system, opening-up strategy, and participation in global economic governance, competition and cooperation (Pei, 2016). Open economy suits and reinforces China’s market-oriented reform. It is consistent with not only China’s development stage and national conditions but the trend of world development as well.
First introduced at the Third Plenum of the 14th CPC Central Committee in 1993, the concept of “open economy” repeatedly appears in the Party and government documents and speeches by China’s top leadership. It was mentioned on various occasions, including: the 15th CPC National Congress in 1997, the Fifth Plenum of the 15th CPC Central Committee in 2000, the Report to the 16th CPC National Congress in 2002, the Third Plenum of the 16th CPC Central Committee in 2003, the Fifth Plenum of the 16th CPC National Congress in 2005, the 17th CPC National Congress in 2007, the Fifth Plenum of the 17th CPC Central Committee in 2010, the Report to the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2012, the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013, and the Fifth Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2015. The Report to the 19th CPC National Congress in 2017 states that “China is improving its new system of open economy and ranks among the highest in the world in terms of foreign trade, and investment and foreign exchange reserves”; we should “develop open economy at a higher level” and “contribute to an open world economy.”
By transitioning toward an open economy, China has sustained rapid economic growth and strengthened its comprehensive national power. In 1978, China’s GDP was 367.87 billion yuan (then 125.27 billion U.S. dollars) with per capita GDP of 385 yuan (then 131 U.S. dollars), making it an extremely low-income country. By 2018, China’s GDP reached 90 trillion yuan (13.6 trillion U.S. dollars) with per capita GDP of 64,644 yuan (9,634 U.S. dollars) - about to cross the threshold of a highincome country2.
1.2 Social Security Transition: From Traditional to Modern Social Security System
With the transition from a closed planned economy to an open socialist market economy, China’s social security system also evolved in tandem with the changing economic system.
Strictly speaking, China’s traditional social security system started to develop in 1953, when three policy documents were issued to lay the groundwork for a preliminary Soviet-style national labor insurance system3. In cities, the traditional social security system comprised labor insurance system, social relief, social benefits, and others. Among them, the labor insurance system was a key element
济模式。1978年，中国走上了改革开放的道路，中国经济成功地实现了从计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制的转型，也走出了一条从封闭型到开放型经济的发展道路。
开放经济区别于封闭经济的本质特征在于劳动力、土地、资本、技术等各种生产要素的自由流动，以劳动力流动为例，封闭型经济下不存在劳动力流动，也几乎不存在劳动力市场。“开放型经济”是指“互利共赢、多
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元平衡、安全高效的开放型经济体系”，其内容具体而丰富，包括经济体系和体制、开放战略、参与全球经济治理以及形成参与国际经济竞争合作等重大命题（裴长洪，2016）。开放型经济体系不仅适应中国市场化改革的需要，而且帮助推动市场化改革不断深化；既符合中国的发展阶段和具体国情，也符合时代特征与世界发展潮流。
1993年党的十四届三中全会首次提出“开放型经济”的概念，此后，“开放型经济”这个概念在党和国家重要文献以及中央领导人讲话里反复出现，内容不断丰富，1997年党的十五大报告、2000年党的十五届五中全会、2002年党的十六大报告、2003年党的十六届三中全会、2005年党的十六届五中全会、2007年党的十七大、2010年党的十七届五中全会、2012年党的十八大报告、2013年党的十八届三中全会、2015年党的十八届五中全会等均有提及。2017年党的十九大报告指出：我国“开放型经济新体制逐步健全，对外贸易、对外投资、外汇储备稳居世界前列”；我们要“发展更高层次的开放型经济”，“推动建设开放型世界经济”。
随着经济体制转型和开放型经济的发展，中国实现了国民经济的持续高速增长和综合国力的极大提升。1978年，中国国内生产总值（G D P）为3678.7亿元人民币（约合1252.7亿美元），人均G D P为385元人民币（约合131美元），属于极低收入国家；到2018年，中国国内生产总值（GDP）达900309亿元人民币，约合13.6万亿美
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元，人均GDP达64644元人民币，约合9634美元，已站在高收入国家的门槛 。
（二）社会保障制度转型：从传统社会保障制度到现代社会保障制度
从封闭的计划经济到开放的社会主义市场经济，中国的社会保障制度也随着经济体制的的变革进行了自我转型与重大调整，走出了一条从适应封闭型经济的传统社会保障制度到适应开放型经济的现代社会保障制度的转型之路。
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严格来说，传统社会保障制度开始于1953年，以当年连续颁发的三个重要文件为核心 ，构建了最初的苏联式国家劳动保险模式。在城镇，传统社会保障制度主要包括劳动保险制度、社会救济、社会福利以及其他保障，其中以劳动保险制度为核心。劳动保险制度为城镇劳动者及其家属提供了“从摇篮到坟墓”的全面保障。1956年，劳动保险制度保障的职工人数达到1600万人，比1953年增加了近4倍；加上签订集体劳动保险合同的
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职工，享受保险待遇的职工人数相当于国营、公私合营和私营企业职工总数的94% 。在农村，立足于集体经济
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和人民公社，“五保”供养制度 、合作医疗制度以及一些救灾救济等社会保障制度逐渐发展起来。“五保”供养
and offered “from cradle to grave” security to urban workers and their families. In 1956, it covered 16 million employees, a four-fold increase over 1953. If employees with collective labor insurance contracts are included, the labor insurance system covered 94% of employees from state-run enterprises, stateprivate joint enterprises, and private enterprises4.
In the countryside, social insurance programs such as the “five guarantees” system5, cooperative medical system and disaster relief programs were developed based on the collective economy and People’s Communes. The “five guarantees” system ensured basic living standards for rural residents with particular difficulties. By 1958, the “five guarantees” benefits were extended to 4.13 million households with 5.19 million people in the countryside nationwide. 6The rural medical cooperative system ensured basic access to drugs and healthcare in the countryside. By 1976, 90% of Chinese farmers took part in cooperative healthcare programs (Lin, 2002).
The traditional social security system was based on a highly centralized economy and “full employment” under the planned economic system in a closed economy. It was a product of the planned economy under the special historical conditions. As a subsystem of the planned economy, the social security system covered every social member affiliated to a government institution or enterprise. The rural collective economy became the foundation of the rural social security system and was undergirded by the “five guarantees” and cooperative medical systems.
As for income distribution, cities adopted a low-wage system, and the countryside followed work points. This simple income distribution system was supplemented by the traditional social security system. In terms of the labor system, the labor market and free flow of labor were almost absent from the planned economy. Under the differentiated urban-rural social security systems, significant disparities existed in the level of social benefits between urban and rural areas and different enterprises, and labor flow was minimal (Zheng, 2009; Zheng, Yu, Gao, 2010). In the closed economy era, the traditional social security system played an essential role in protecting people’s living standards, developing the economy, and maintaining social stability.
However, the traditional social security system became incongruous with China’s transition toward an open and market-based economy, which created diversified economic entities and required the flow of labor to be unimpeded. Growing social and economic risks facing state-owned and collective enterprises shook the foundation of the traditional social security system. Implementation of the rural contract responsibility system stripped the rural social security system of its original material and organizational foundation.
Open economy required the traditional social security system to be modernized. An open economy is based on the free flow of production factors, especially labor, which used to be impeded under the traditional social security system. In an open economy, enterprises compete on a level playing field as market entities, operate independently, and are responsible for their profits and losses, free from social security obligations that are government responsibilities. In China’s planned economy era, however, enterprises had to run social programs such as schools and hospitals on their expenses.
The open economy is underpinned by economic variables such as consumption, savings, and investment, which are influenced or determined by the social security system (Sun, Xiao, 2013). In the closed economy, all resources were mobilized by the State, and the traditional social security system was predicated on subdued wage and could not stimulate consumption and investment. In transitioning toward an open socialist market economy, China modernized its social security system by integrating
6制度保障了农村特殊困难群体的正常生活，到1958年，全国农村享受“五保”待遇的有413万户、519万人 ；农村合作医疗制度基本解决了农村缺医少药以及农民看不起病、吃不起药的问题，到1976年，全国90%的农民参加了合作医疗（林闽钢，2002）。
传统社会保障制度建立在经济高度集中与“充分就业”的前提下，适应计划经济体制和封闭经济运行方式，是当时的特殊历史条件下计划经济体制的产物。作为封闭的计划经济的一个子系统，以“单位”为纽带的社保制度把固定在单位内的每个社会成员覆盖在内，农村的集体经济成为农村社保制度的依托，其“五保”制度、合作医疗制度对集体所有制的存在与发展起到积极作用。除此之外，从收入分配制度来看，城镇实行的是低工资制、农村实行的是工分制，分配关系简单，传统社保制度成为当时收入分配制度的有益补充；从劳动制度来看，计划经济时代基本不存在劳动力市场和劳动力的自由流动，而当时的城乡社保制度二元分割，城乡之间、不同所有制单位之间、同一所有制的不同单位之间的福利待遇存在很大差距，固化了劳动力的统一配置（郑秉文，2009；郑秉文、于环、高庆波，2010）。由于顺应了计划经济的发展，传统社会保障制度在封闭经济时代为保障人民生活水平、促进经济恢复和发展以及维护社会稳定发挥了重要作用。
传统社会保障制度体现的是计划经济体制的本质。随着封闭型经济向开放型经济的转型和社会主义市场经济的发展，传统社会保障制度注定不适应这个巨大的社会经济变迁：以所有制为基础的单一的覆盖方式不适应新体制下多样化经济主体的发展，较低的社会化程度阻碍了劳动力的合理流动，社保制度赖以生存的国有企业和集体企业面临诸多社会经济风险，农村承包责任制使农村社保制度失去了物质基础和组织基础。
开放型经济要求传统社会保障制度必须转型，建立现代社会保障制度迫在眉睫：第一，开放型经济的本质特征是各种生产要素尤其是劳动力的自由流动，这也是开放型经济得以发展的前提条件。而传统社保制度下劳动力的自由流动受到影响，无法发挥劳动力这个生产要素的作用以满足开放经济的发展。第二，开放型经济要求企业成为真正的市场主体，公平地参与竞争，实现自主经营、自负盈亏，需要把社会保障事务从企业职能中脱离出来。在过往封闭型计划经济体制下，企业事实上承担着“企业办社会”的重担。第三，开放型经济要求充分发挥消费、储蓄、投资等各种经济变量的作用，这些经济变量构成开放经济发展的核心基础，在很大程度上被社会保障制度影响或决定（孙祁祥、肖志光，2013）。而封闭型经济下，一切资源由国家通过计划指令统一调配，传统社保制度只是作为低工资的补充，企业承担着社会保障事务的重负，社会保障制度刺激消费、带动投资的功能难以发挥出来。因此，推动社会保障制度转型、建立适应开放型经济的现代社会保障制度是发展社会主义市场经济的必然要求。转型后的现代社会保障制度对开放型经济的适应性非常明显：机关事业单位养老保险和城镇职工基本养老保险的并轨、城乡居民基本医疗保险和养老保险的整合以及医疗保险异地就医结算可打破劳动力流动的人为障碍，促进劳动力的自由流动；社会化的现代社会保障制度剥离了企业的社会保障重负，使企业能够“轻装上阵”参与市场竞争，激发企业的活力；将覆盖不同所有制类型的社会成员（医疗保险实现了全覆盖），充分发挥刺激消费、提升居民消费预期的功能。
总体来看，社会保障制度转型与经济转型相辅相成。一方面，社会保障制度转型是经济转型的必然要求，
the pension insurance for government institutions with the basic pension insurance for urban employees, consolidating the basic medical insurance and pension insurance for urban and rural residents, and enabling off-site medical insurance settlement. These reforms removed barriers to the free flow of labor. Creation of a modern contributory social security system stripped social security burdens from enterprises and thus invigorated corporate vitality. By covering social members from all enterprises (full medical insurance coverage), the modern social security system fulfilled its functions of stimulating consumption and enhancing consumer expectations.
Social security reform went hand in hand with economic transition. While the traditional social security system was compatible with the closed economy, the modern social security system was a natural result of the open economy. The evolving social security system also undergirded the transition toward an open economy.
2. Seven-Decade Journey of China’s Successful Social Security Transition
Over the past seven decades, China’s successful economic transition served as a key driver of social security transformation - which in turn supported its economic transition. The seven-decade transformation and development of China’s social security system can be divided into two eras and seven stages.
2.1 1949-1978: Era of the Traditional Social Security System
Before the reform and opening up in 1978, China’s traditional social security system underwent three stages of development:
Stage 1 ( 1949- 1958): Preliminary institutional development. As a symbol of this stage, the Government Administration Council enacted the Labor Insurance Regulations of the People’s Republic of China in 1951 (amended in 1953 and 1956). The urban labor insurance, the rural “five guarantees” and the rural cooperative medical systems were also established in this stage. As a supplement to the subdued wages, labor insurance covered the entire employee lifecycle and benefited their families. Through the People’s Communes, the “five guarantees” system ensured proper food, clothing, healthcare, education and funeral to the elderly, handicapped persons and underage children in the countryside. The rural cooperative medical system was established based on the experience of Mishan Township, Shanxi Province in early 1955: Agricultural cooperatives, farmers and physicians jointly created health stations to offer preventive healthcare services to farmers free of charge other than the contribution of a small amount of healthcare fee annually.
Stage 2 ( 1959- 1966): institutional adjustment. With the expanding coverage of free medical service and labor insurance in cities, the rising costs of healthcare created huge financial strains to the government. The central government introduced a host of measures to reduce the fiscal burden and put into place a cadre hierarchy system to keep a lid on spending. In the countryside, the People’s Communes broadened the coverage of the “five guarantees” and cooperative medical systems, unleashing great potentials from the rural social security system.
Stage 3 ( 1967- 1978): Social insurance morphed into enterprise insurance. After the Cultural Revolution erupted in 1966, the urban social insurance system jointly funded by the government and enterprises collapsed and morphed into “enterprise insurance” - social benefits throughout the entire employee lifecycle became the enterprises’ sole responsibility. In 1976, 31.52% of enterprises owned by the whole people were loss-making7. Enterprise contributions were insufficient for running the social security system. Trade unions responsible for allocating social security funds ceased to function. To make things worse, state-run enterprises were forbidden from withdrawing labor insurance funds, making
传统社会保障制度和现代社会保障制度分别是转型前的封闭型经济和转型后的开放型经济的产物；另一方面，通过适应性调整或变革，社会保障制度转型为经济转型起到支撑的功能，对开放型经济的发展发挥促进作用。
二、70年来社会保障成功转型的发展历程
70年来，中国经济的成功转型，牵引和要求中国社会保障转型；中国社会保障的成功转型反过来又确保和促进了中国经济的成功转型。中国社会保障制度70年的转型和发展可划分为“两个时期”，细分为“七个阶段”。
（一）1949~1978年：传统社会保障制度时期
改革开放前，传统社会保障制度的发展可以分为三个阶段：第一，1949~1958年的“制度初创阶段”。这一阶段的重要标志是1951年政务院颁布的《中华人民共和国劳动保险条例》（1953年和1956年进行了修订），主要成就是初步创建了城镇劳动保险制度、农村“五保”制度和农村合作医疗制度。劳动保险制度基本覆盖了企业职工生命周期的各个阶段，职工家属也能享受相当的待遇水平，成为计划经济时期低工资的补充。农村“五保”制度以人民公社为依托，对没有劳动能力、没有生活来源、没有法定抚养人的“三无人员”做到了“保吃、保穿、保烧、保教、保葬”，由生产大队或生产队安排和照顾“五保”对象；农村合作医疗制度的确立肇始于1955年初山西省米山乡的实践，由农业生产合作社、农民和医生共同筹建保健站，为农民提供免费的预防保健服务，农民只需出少量的保健费，无须支付挂号费和出诊费。
第二，1959~1966年的“制度调整阶段”。在城镇，公费医疗和劳保医疗随着覆盖面扩大，逐渐出现费用上涨趋势，给财政造成巨大压力。为了减轻财政负担，中央政府出台了一系列限制性措施，逐渐设立了干部特权和等级制度以控制费用上涨。在农村，人民公社制度的确立和实施刺激了“五保”制度与合作医疗制度覆盖面的不断扩大，激发了农村社保制度的发展潜力。
第三，1967~1978年的“蜕化为企业保险阶段”。随着“文化大革命”的兴起，城镇的“国家-企业保险”完全瘫痪并蜕化为“企业保险”，职工的生、老、病、死完全成为企业内部事务，这是因为：其一，制度融资渠道因全
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民所有制企业大面积亏损而逐渐枯竭，1976年全国亏损面达到31.52% ，单一的企业缴费难以维持制度的正常运行；其0二，制度赖以运转的管理主体——工会系统基本处于瘫痪状态，负责制度的资金使用和管理的基层工会难以正常工作；其三，国营企业被禁止提取劳动保险金，社保资金流由国家“兜底”下降为企业“兜底”， “单位”成为制度赖以生存的唯一基础。在农村，“五保”制度几乎全部停顿，到1978年底，全国敬老院仅有7175
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所、在院老人只有10多万人 ；但农村合作医疗得到空前的发展，在全国大范围迅速铺开。
传统社会保障制度是构建在马克思的社会总产品扣除思想上的：马克思认为集体的劳动所得即为社会
enterprises the sole source of social insurance cash flow. In the countryside, the “five guarantees” system almost came to a complete halt. By the end of 1978, there were only 7,175 nursing homes nationwide with more than 100,000 inmates8. Nevertheless, the rural cooperative medical system expanded at an unprecedented scale.
The traditional social security system was based on the Marxist theory of deduction of aggregate social product: According to Marxism, gains from collective labor are an aggregate social product, from which a backup fund or insurance fund should be deducted for the payment of misfortunes and natural disasters. Since the social security fund is deducted from the aggregate social product, workers are not required to contribute9. New China referenced the Soviet-style national insurance model and according to the Marxist deduction theory, did not require personal contribution on top of corporate contribution. In the planned economy, this contributory scheme was essentially financed by the State.
2.2 1978-Present: Era of Modern Social Security System
In the open economy era, China’s modern social security system experienced the following four stages of development:
Stage 1 (1978-1992): Replacing the traditional social security system with a new system. In this stage, China’s urban social security programs faced two tasks: First, restore the social security system devastated by the Cultural Revolution. With the State Council’s enactment of two policy documents in 1978,10 the pension insurance systems for government institutions and enterprises owned by the whole people became restored for over two million employees. Regarding free medical services, medical costs were cut by regulating physician visits, personal responsibilities, and payment scope. As for labor healthcare insurance, China created a social pooling fund for retiree medical expenses and employee catastrophic medical expenses and required personal contribution obligations.
With the emerging new forms of ownership and income distribution, China put into place a new social security system. After the implementation of the labor contract system, the number of contract employees surged from 2.09 million in 1984 to 6.24 million in 1986.11 To protect their lawful rights, the State Council created an accumulated pension insurance system based on corporate and personal
12
contributions. With rising unemployment after the mid-1980s due to labor reform, an unemployment insurance system was set up for SOE employees in 1986.13 By the end of 1989, unemployment assistance
14
funds were dispensed to 136,000 laid-off workers. The rural social security reform aimed to provide funds for the “five guarantees” system. In 1991, the State Council enacted a regulation that permitted township pooling funds and village-retained public welfare funds to be used to make up for the shortfall
15
of funds for the “five guarantees” system. Meanwhile, the role of the cooperative medical system weakened with a sharp decline in the number of administrative villages still practicing this system.
Stage 2 (1993-1998): Designing the modern social security system and selecting a target model. In 1993, the 4th Plenum of the 13th CPC Central Committee adopted the Decisions of the CPC Central Committee on the Creation of a Socialist Market Economic System (“Decisions”), which called for “a multitier social security system and “social pooling plus personal accounts” for urban employee pension and medical insurance systems.” For the first time, the Decisions stated that “social security system
总产品，应该从社会总产品中扣除用于应付不幸事件、自然灾害等的后备基金或保险基金。社保基金从社会
9
总产品中直接扣除，因此工人自身不需要缴费 。在实践中，新中国的社会保障制度借鉴了苏联的国家保险模式，并按照马克思的扣除理论，规定只有企业缴费为资金来源，个人不缴费。很显然，对于计划经济而言，这种缴费方式在本质上还是国家负责。
（二）1978年至今：现代社会保障制度时期
在开放型经济时期，现代社会保障制度的发展可细分为四个阶段：第一，1978~1992年为反思传统社会保障制度并探索新制度阶段。这一阶段，城镇社会保障事业面临两大任务。一是恢复被“文革”严重破坏的社会保障制度：在养老保险方面，以1978年国务院颁布的两个文件为
10
标志 ，机关事业单位养老保险和全民企业职工养老保险制度得以恢复，解决了“文革”十年来积累的机关事业单位和国有企业200多万职工无法退休的问题；公费医疗方面，通过严格规范就医行为、加大个人责任以及控制支付范围等方式降低费用支出；劳保医疗方面，实行离退休人员医疗费用和职工大病医疗费用的社会统筹，并且规定个人的缴费责任。二是探索新型社会保障制度以适应多种所有制形式和多种分配制度等新环境
11
的要求：随着劳动合同制的实施，合同制职工从1984年的209万人迅速增长到1986年的624万人 ，为保障合同
12
制职工的合法权益，国务院于1986年探索建立了由企业和个人缴费的积累制养老保险制度 。由于用工制度的改革，20世纪80年代中期以后中国失业人数越来越多；为此，中国于1986年实施了国营企业职工待业保险
13 14
制度 ，到1989年底，对13.6万失业人员发放了待业救济金 。农村社会保障改革的任务主要是解决“五保”制
15
度的资金问题：1991年，国务院颁布的一项条例规定乡统筹费和村提留公益金可用于“五保”供养 ，基本解决了“五保”制度的资金困境；同期，农村合作医疗制度的作用逐渐减弱，全国实行合作医疗制度的行政村数量大幅下降。
第二，1993~1998年为现代社会保障制度思路形成与目标模式选择阶段。1993年，党的十三届四中全会通过了《中共中央关于建立社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》（以下称《决定》），提出“建立多层次的社会保障体系”以及“（城镇职工养老保险和医疗保险制度）实行社会统筹和个人账户相结合”的制度目标，并且第一次明确提出：“社会保障体系包括社会保险、社会救济、社会福利、优抚安置和社会互助、个人储蓄积累保障”。以此为标志，中国社会保障制度改革进入顶层设计、模式选择的阶段。养老保险方面，以1995年国务院发
16
布的6号文件和1997年国务院发布的26号文件为标志 ，中国正式建立了社会统筹与个人账户相结合（简称“统账结合”）的城镇职工养老保险制度；医疗保险方面，1998年确立了覆盖城镇所有用人单位并以地级以上
encompasses social insurance, assistance, welfare, veteran benefit and placement, mutual assistance, and personal savings.” The Decisions marks a new stage of top-level design and target model selection for China’s reform of the social security system.
With the enactment of No.6 Document released by the State Council in 1995 and No.26 Document in 1997,16 China officially established a “social pooling plus personal accounts” pension insurance system for urban employees, as well as a “social pooling plus personal accounts” basic medical insurance system for urban employees covering all urban employers in jurisdictions above prefecture
17
level as a basic unit of social pooling.
In 1993, China expanded the scope of the newly created employment- pending insurance for working-age people waiting for job assignments, adjusted calculation, and disbursement of employment
18
pending benefits, and raised the level of benefits. These reforms laid the groundwork for unemployment insurance. The pilot rural pension insurance system was carried out in more prosperous regions, and the rural cooperative medical system was rebuilt. China also created the work injury insurance system and
19 the urban subsistence allowance system (“Dibao”), which marks the official introduction of a noncontributory system. Constant improvements were made to the modern social security system.
Stage 3 ( 1999- 2012): the initial development and improvement of the modern social security system. In this stage, the framework of China’s modern social security system further improved with a broader scope of coverage and a higher level of legislation. Highlights include: (i) the creation of a multitier pension insurance system covering urban and rural areas. In 1999, the State Council released a regulation that specified the scope of pension insurance, which started to include flexible employees as of 2005.20 After setting the goal of creating a “social pooling plus personal accounts” basic pension insurance system for urban employees, the pilot program of individual accounts was carried out in the three northeastern provinces in 2000 and 2005, and the partial accumulation system came into existence. In 2004, the trust-based defined contribution (DC) corporate annuity system was identified as the second
21
pillar of pension insurance, which marks a step toward developing a multitier pension insurance system. In 2009, the rural resident pension insurance system was officially established22. (ii) China initially put into place a medical security system covering urban and rural areas. In 1998, the “social pooling plus individual accounts” basic medical insurance system for urban employees replaced free medical service and labor healthcare systems, and individual accounts with minimum contribution requirement were
23
created. In 2003, China launched nationwide pilot programs for the new rural cooperative medical
24
system (“NRCMS”) featuring social pooling for catastrophic diseases. In 1999, official unemployment insurance replaced employment-pending insurance25 with coverage expanded to include all enterprises and government institutions. With joint contributions from individuals and employers, the payment of
17
行政区为统筹单位的“统账结合”的城镇职工基本医疗保险制度 ；失业保险制度方面，1993年对刚建立不久
18
的待业保险制度进行了扩大实施范围、调整待遇计发办法和提高待遇水平等方面的改革 ，为日后正式建立失业保险打下了基础；农村社会保障制度方面，在一些经济相对发达地区试点了农村养老保险制度，并对农村合作医疗制度进行了一些重建。此外，中国还探索建立了工伤保险制度和城市居民最低生活保障制度（简
19
称“低保”） ，标志着非缴费型制度的正式引入，现代社会保障体系不断完善。
第三，1999~2012年为现代社会保障体系初步形成和完善阶段。这一阶段，中国现代社会保障制度的框架进一步完善、覆盖范围进一步扩大、法制化程度进一步提高，主要改革内容包括：首先，建立了覆盖城乡的多
20
层次养老保险体系。1999年，国务院发布的一项条例明确了进一步扩大养老保险的覆盖范围 ，并且到2005年纳入灵活就业人员；城镇职工基本养老保险制度在确定“统账结合”的目标模式之后，分别于2000年和2005年在东北三省开展了做实个人账户的试点工作，开始逐步实现部分积累制；2004年，信托制D C型企业年金制度
21
被明确作为养老保险第二支柱 ，养老保险制度开始朝着多层次的目标迈进；2009年，农村居民养老保险制度
22
正式建立 。其次，初步建立覆盖城乡的医疗保障体系。1998年，“统账结合”的城镇职工基本医疗保险制度取
23
代公费医疗和劳保医疗制度 ，并设置了个人账户和起付线以强化个人责任；2003年起，以大病统筹为主的新
24
型农村合作医疗制度（简称“新农合”）开始在全国试点 。再次，失业保险制度取代待业保险制度。1999年“，失业
25
保险”取代“待业保险” ，覆盖范围扩大到全部企事业单位，个人和单位共同缴费，失业保险金的给付标准与最低工资水平和低保线挂钩。最后，完善了覆盖城乡的最低生活保障制度。1999年，城市居民最低生活保障制度的保障原则、保障标准和资金来源等进一步规范化，城市居民低保制度正式建立起来；在农村，为切实解决贫困人口的生活困难，国务院决定2007年在全国建立农村低保制度。此外，在法制化建设方面，2010年，全国人民代表大会通过了《中华人民共和国社会保险法》，意味着中国现代社会保障制度的法制化程度进一步提高。
第四，2013年党的十八届三中全会以来现代社会保障制度全面深化改革阶段。党的十八届三中全会以来，现代社会保障制度的整体框架基本搭建完成，缴费型制度和非缴费型制度相互配合构成了完整的制度体系。2014年《社会救助暂行办法》的发布进一步规范了社会救助制度，标志着包括低保、农村特困救助、临时救助、医疗救助、残疾人救助、教育救助、住房救助等在内的综合社会救助体系正式确立。养老保险制度改革进一步深化：2015年，机关事业单位养老保险制度和城镇职工基本养老保险制度的并轨工作迈出重要步伐，养
26
老保险制度的公平性进一步提升 。城乡统筹成为现代社会保障制度全面深化改革的重点，城乡居民基本养
unemployment insurance funds was linked with minimum wage and Dibao standards. Lastly, Dibao
system covering urban and rural areas was improved. In 1999, China further standardized the “Dibao”
system for urban residents, subsistence standards and source of funds, and officially established the Dibao system for urban residents. In the countryside, the State Council decided to create a rural Dibao
system nationwide in 2007 for the poor. In 2010, the National People’s Congress (NPC) adopted the Social Insurance Law, which marks a step forward in China’s modern social security legislation.
Stage 4 (2013-present): The reform of modern social security system deepened on all fronts after the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013. The reform led to a complete overall framework for modern social security system combining contributory and non-contributory schemes. In 2014, the release of the Interim Measures for Social Assistance standardized social assistance system and marks the creation of a comprehensive social assistance system comprising Dibao, assistance for the rural poorest, ad hoc assistance, medical assistance, assistance for the handicapped, educational assistance, and housing assistance. Pension insurance reform deepened: in 2015, significant progress was made in unifying the pension insurance system for government institutions with the basic pension insurance system for urban employees, thus increasing pension insurance fairness26. Urban and rural integration became a priority in comprehensively reforming the modern social security system. The establishment of basic pension and medical insurance systems for urban and rural residents enhanced the integration of social production system for urban and rural residents27. On the whole, the structural reforms increased China’s social insurance fairness, expedited institutional and urban-rural integration, and enhanced basic protection from the social assistance scheme. Social security played an active role in supply-side structural reforms.
3. Comparative Analysis of China’s Seven-Decade Social Security Transition
The traditional social security system differs from the modern social security system in many ways such as institutional nature, structure, functions, policy scope, and administration. Before the Cultural Revolution in 1966, China adopted a social insurance system jointly funded by the State and enterprises. During the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976, enterprises became the only source of financing for the system. After reform and opening up in 1978, both the State and the public contributed to social security underpinned by social insurance. Meanwhile, the structure of the social security system morphed from a single-tier subsystem of the planned economy into a social safety net for resolving social risks and maintaining social stability. With these transformations, the social security system became a key component of China’s modern governance system. In terms of policy scope, the labor protection system transformed from a labor policy before 1966 into an enterprise policy from 1966 to 1976 and then a social policy after 1978. In terms of administration, the labor protection system was run by trade unions before 1966, by enterprises from 1966 to 1976, and by government functional departments after 1978. These changes also transformed the scope, financing, and other institutional parameters of the social security system.
3.1 The Transition from Single-Tier to Multi-Tier Social Security System
Before the reform and opening up in 1978, the traditional pension and medical insurance systems were single-tier institutional arrangements by the State and comprised only labor insurance system and free medical service and labor insurance systems. After 1978, the modern social security system
27老保险制度和城乡居民基本医疗保险制度正式确立 ，加强了城乡居民社会保障制度的整合。整体来看，现代社会保障制度进入结构性改革时期，社会保险制度的公平性进一步提升、制度整合以及城乡统筹的速度加快，综合社会救助体系的“兜底”功能进一步强化，社会保障积极参与供给侧结构性改革大局。
三、70年来社会保障转型前后的比较分析
现代社会保障制度与传统社会保障制度存在巨大差异，转型前后，社会保障在制度性质、结构、功能、所属政策范畴以及管理主体等方面都发生了质的变化，主要表现为：制度性质从“文革”前的“国家-企业保险”到“文革”期间的“企业保险”、再到改革开放后以社会保险为主体的国家-社会保障；制度结构从改革开放前的单一层次转变为改革开放后的多层次；制度功能上，改革开放前社会保障是计划经济体制的一个子系统，改革开放后经历了从为国有企业改革配套和为社会主义市场经济服务转变为化解社会风险和维护社会稳定的社会安全网，最终成为推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要组成部分；所属政策范畴方面，从“文革”前的劳动政策到“文革”期间的企业政策再到改革开放后的社会政策；管理主体从“文革”前的工会到“文革”期间的企业再到改革开放后的政府职能部门。这些特性的转变又导致了社会保障的覆盖范围、资金筹集等制度参数的重大改变。
（一）制度结构：从单一层次转变为多层次
改革开放前的传统退休养老制度和医疗保险制度提供的只是国家单一层次的制度安排，即只有劳动保险制度、公费医疗和劳保医疗制度。改革开放后，现代社会保障制度逐渐走向多层次：从整体结构来看，现代社会保障制度由缴费型的社会保险制度和非缴费型的社会救助、社会福利制度组成，非缴费型制度和缴费型制度相结合，通过“社会救助-社会保险-社会福利”的架构满足了社会成员不同层次的需求，尤其是非缴费型的社会救助制度，作为社会保障体系的最后一道防线，自2014年综合社会救助体系建立以来充分发挥了保障特殊困难群体生活的“社会安全网”功能。就具体项目而言，其中的养老保障体系由第一层次基本养老保险制度、第二层次企业年金和第三层次个人税收递延型商业养老保险组成，医疗保障体系包括第一层次的基本医疗保险制度以及大病保险、第二层次的企业补充医疗保险和团体健康保险以及第三层次的个人税优型健康保险和普通健康保险。随着社会保障制度结构的多层次发展，制度供给主体也发生了变化。相比于传统社会保障制度在“文革”前由各级工会组织实施和“文革”期间由企业提供，现代社会保障制度由国家、企业、社会、市场等主体混合提供，实现了供给主体的多元化，比如养老保险和医疗保险的第一层次为国家主导、第二层次主要由企业提供、第三层次则以市场为供给主体，社会救助也强调在政府主导的前提下鼓励单位和个人等社会力量的参与。
became multi-tiered: it is consisted of a contributory social insurance system and non-contributory social assistance and welfare systems. Social relief, insurance, and welfare benefits meet the multitier needs of social members. As the last defense of the social security system, the non-contributory social assistance scheme serves as a social safety net for people with particular difficulties as of 2014.
The pension security system consists of the basic pension insurance system at the first level, corporate annuity at the second and tax-deferred commercial pension insurance at the third. The medical security system includes basic medical insurance and catastrophic disease insurance schemes at the first level, the enterprise medical insurance and group health insurance at the second, and individual tax-preferred health insurance and ordinary health insurance at the third. The multi-tier social security system led to a diversified supply of social security services. Traditionally, social security services were provided by trade unions at all levels before the Cultural Revolution in 1966 and solely by enterprises during the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976). Under the modern social security system, social security services are provided by the State, enterprises, communities, and market entities. While the State is responsible for the first level of pension and medical insurance services, enterprises provide second-level social security services, and market entities take care of the third level. Employers, individuals, and the public at large are encouraged to participate in social assistance as well.
3.2 Coverage Expanded from Enterprises of Public Ownership to All Ownership Types
In the planned economy era, when SOEs made up the lion’s share of China’s economy, the traditional social security system was confined to enterprises of public ownership. After 1978, the mixed economy with various ownerships led to the rise of the collective economy, foreign-funded enterprises,
（二）覆盖范围：从仅覆盖公有制企业到覆盖各类所有制企业
改革开放前的传统社会保障制度仅覆盖公有制企业，适应计划经济时代以国有经济为主体的单一经济结构。改革开放后，随着多种所有制相结合的混合经济的发展，众多小集体和新办集体经济组织或企业、“三资”企业、私营企业与乡镇企业开始出现，新的经济形态与就业形势呼唤着新的社会保障制度。自改革开放以来，社会保障制度的覆盖面从最初的以公有制企业职工为主体，扩展至包括各类所有制类型的正规就业职工和灵活就业人员以及城市未就业居民和农村居民。各项社会保障制度的覆盖人数逐年增加（见图1）：基本养老保险的参保人数从20世纪90年代的不到2.0亿人增加到2017年底的9.2亿人、城镇职工基本医疗保险覆盖
28
人数从1998年的509万人增加到2017年的3亿人 。
（三）筹资模式：从企业缴费到国家、企业、个人三方分担
传统社会保障制度中，只有企业缴费（比如，劳动保险制度的资金完全来源于占职工工资总额3%的企业缴费），个人不承担任何缴费责任；由于计划经济时代企业依附于国家，实质上是国家在“兜底”传统社会保障制度的运行，国家财政成为传统社会保障制度唯一的资金来源。国家“兜底”的筹资模式最终使国家财政不
private enterprises, and township and village enterprises (TVEs). New economic entities called for changing the social security system. Since 1978, the coverage of social security system expanded from employees at enterprises of public ownership to all employees in the formal sector regardless of ownership, flexible employees, as well as unemployed urban and rural residents. Participants in social security programs increased year by year (see Figure 1): participants in the basic pension insurance scheme increased from less than 200 million people in the 1990s to 920 million at the end of 2017, and participants in the basic medical insurance scheme for urban employees increased from 5.09 million in 1998 to 300 million in 201728.
3.3 Financing Mode: From Enterprise Contribution to Shared Contribution
Under the traditional social security system, SOEs were the sole contributor (for instance, the labor insurance system was entirely funded by enterprise contributions equivalent to 3% of payroll), and individuals were not required to contribute. This system led to hefty strains to the treasury, making alternative sources of financing necessary. After the reform, the State, enterprises, and individuals became jointly responsible for funding the modern social security system. The new social insurance system - which chiefly comprises the basic pension insurance and medical insurance for urban employees - is funded by employers, individuals and fiscal subsidy jointly. Among them, the role of fiscal subsidy is the most notable.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the income of basic pension insurance fund for urban employees reached 3.35 trillion yuan, including 495.5 billion yuan in fiscal subsidy, or 14.8% of total fund income, up 15.5% over 2016. The income of basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents reached 333.93 billion yuan, including 231.92 billion yuan in fiscal subsidy, or 69.5% of total fund income, up 10.9% over 2016. The income of basic medical insurance fund for urban and rural residents stood at 683.83 billion yuan, including 491.87 billion yuan in fiscal subsidy, or 71.9% of total fund income, up 6.7% over 201629. Diversified financing bolstered the modern social security system and increased its resilience.
3.4 Public Finance Contributed to the Improvement of Non Contributory System
Since 1978, non-contributory and contributory social security schemes have developed hand in hand to meet the needs of people with different income levels. Development of the non-contributory system was made possible by hefty fiscal inputs. Before 1978, rural non-contributory “five guarantees” system received limited central and local government subsidies. During the Cultural Revolution, the rural “five guarantees” system came to almost a complete halt due to lack of funds.
After reform and opening up in 1978, China resumed funding to the rural “five guarantees” system and created a comprehensive social assistance scheme with Dibao at the heart and the new rural basic pension insurance system almost fully funded by state subsidy (later combined into the basic pension insurance system for urban and rural residents as of 2014). These systems have standardized China’s non-contributory social security schemes. For instance, central and local fiscal Dibao spending has been increasing year by year, and central government spending made up the biggest chunk. In 2007, Dibao spending at various levels of public finance reached 38.65 billion yuan, of which central government spending accounted for 49.1%. In a decade, fiscal spending on Dibao scheme totaled 170.24 billion yuan in 2016, up more than four times over the level of 2007, of which, central government spending accounted for 78.8% 30. In 2017, fiscal spending on Dibao stood at 169.23 billion yuan - somewhat less
堪重负，导致传统社会保障制度难以为继。改革后的现代社会保障制度由国家、企业和个人共同承担筹资责任，以城镇职工基本养老保险和医疗保险为主体的新的社会保险制度的资金来源由用人单位缴费、个人缴费和财政补贴三部分组成，其中财政补贴的地位和作用显著。根据财政部发布的数据，2017年，城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金收入33542.04亿元，其中财政补贴收入4955.13亿元，占基金收入总额的14.8%，比2016年增长15.5%；城乡居民基本养老保险基金收入3339.3亿元，其中财政补贴收入2319.19亿元，占基金收入总额的69.5%，比2016年增长10.9%；城乡居民基本医疗保险基金收入6838.33亿元，其中财政补贴收入4918.68亿
29元，占基金收入总额的71.9%，比2016年增长6.7% 。多元主体分担责任的筹资模式强化了现代社会保障制度的物质基础，使社会保障基金收入和基金积累规模不断增加，制度抗风险能力得以提高。
（四）财政介入：推动非缴费型制度发展完善
改革开放以来，中国社会保障制度改革完善的一个显著特征是非缴费型制度与缴费型制度同步发展， “两条腿走路”，以满足不同收入群体的需求。非缴费型制度的迅速发展得益于国家财政的大规模介入。改革开放前，可列为非缴费型制度的农村“五保”制度虽然也获得中央和地方财政补贴，但受覆盖范围小、待遇水平低等因素的影响，财政介入的程度不高；后来，农村“五保”制度因资金困境等原因在“文革”期间几乎全部停顿。改革开放以来，不仅着眼于解决农村“五保”制度的资金问题，使“五保”制度恢复运转，而且逐步建立和
than in 2016. This reduction may have to do with the reducing number of Dibao recipients.
3.5 Material Basis: Development of the National Social Security Fund (NSSF)
Initially, upon its creation in 2000, the NSSF only had 20 billion yuan on its account. By the end of 2017, the NSSF’s assets totaled 2,223.12 billion yuan, including directly invested assets worth 941.49 billion yuan, or 42.35% of total assets, entrusted investment assets worth 1,281.63 billion yuan, or 57.65%, and cumulative fiscal appropriations and shares worth 857.78 billion yuan (including net fiscal appropriations worth 855.72 billion yuan). Since its creation, the NSSF has achieved annual investment yield of 8.44% with a cumulative investment return of 1,007.40 billion yuan.
The National Social Security Fund Regulations released by the State Council stipulates that the NSSF is a long-term “national social security reserve fund to supplement and adjust pension insurance and other social security spending during the peak of the aging population.” As a sovereign pension fund, the NSSF was brought under entrusted fund management and received QDII (qualified domestic institutional investor) qualification in 2006. The NSSF is the central government’s national strategic reserve fund. It consists of central fiscal allocations, funds and equity assets acquired from the sales or transfer of state-owned shares, and funds and investment return approved by the State Council or raised in other forms.
4. Contribution of Seven-Decade Social Security Transition to the Open Economy and Theoretical Explanations
After the institutional, structural, and functional transformations, China’s modern social security system has contributed to the nation’s development of an open economy. The modern social security
完善了以城乡居民最低生活保障制度为核心的综合社会救助体系以及资金几乎全部来自财政补贴的新型农村基本养老保险制度（2014年起合并为城乡居民基本养老保险制度），从而实现了中国非缴费型制度的规范化、系统化发展。以城乡居民最低生活保障制度为例，中央和地方财政支出低保资金逐年增加，其中中央财政支出占大头：2007年各级财政支出低保资金386.5亿元，其中中央财政支出占49.1%；经过10年的时间，2016
30年各级财政支出低保资金1702.4亿元，是2007年的4倍多，其中中央财政支出占78.8% ；2017年各级财政支出低保资金1692.3亿元，略低于2016年各级财政支出低保资金，可能与低保对象的减少有关。
（五）物质基础：全国社会保障基金的发展
2000年建立的全国社会保障基金起步阶段注入资金仅为200亿元，截至2017年末，全国社保基金资产总额22231.24亿元。其中直接投资资产9414.91亿元，占全国社保基金资产总额的42.35％；委托投资资产12816.33亿元，占全国社保基金资产总额的57.65％；财政性拨入全国社保基金资金和股份累计8577.80亿元，其中财政性净拨入全国社保基金累计8557.18亿元。全国社保基金自成立以来，年均投资收益率8.44％，
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累计投资收益额10073.99亿元 。
国务院发布的《全国社会保障基金条例》明确规定，全国社会保障基金的性质是“国家社会保障储备基金，用于人口老龄化高峰时期的养老保险等社会保障支出的补充、调剂”，是一只长期投资基金。作为一只主权养老基金，2004年以来，全国社保基金实现了两次质的飞跃：实现了委托管理的“外包”目标；2006年获得了Q D I I境外投资资格。全国社会保障基金是中央政府集中的国家战略储备基金，由中央财政拨入资金、国有股减持或转持所获资金和股权资产、经国务院批准以其他形式筹集的资金及其投资收益构成。
四、70年来社会保障转型对开放型经济体的贡献及其理论诠释
经历了制度性质、结构、功能等方面的转变之后，现代社会保障制度为开放型经济的健康有序发展发挥了支持和促进的作用，保障了开放型经济体的建立、运行和发展。现代社会保障制度之所以能够对建立开放经济体以及促进开放经济发展做出重大贡献，主要原因在于现代社会保障制度成为开放经济的一项“生产要
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素” ，与资本、技术、劳动力等其他生产要素一起推动开放型经济总体产出水平的持续提高。作为一项生产要素，现代社会保障制度促进开放经济发展的作用具体表现为：第一，现代社会保障制度有助于调动消费和投资这两个经济变量对经济增长的作用，进而促进开放经济的持续快速发展。现代社会保障制度帮助实现个体不同生命周期之间以及不同经济周期之间的消费平滑，有助于增加居民的可支配收入，进而有助于提升居民的消费预期、刺激消费水平的提高；现代社会保障制度使
31 of the open economy alongside capital, technology, and labor system became a “production factor” factors.
As a production factor, the model of social security system contributes to economic development in the following ways:
First, the modern social security system promotes the role of consumption and investment in spurring economic growth. By smoothening consumption between life stages of individuals and economic cycles, the modern social security system helps boost household disposable income and consumption. The modern social security system turns enterprises into real market entities and unleashes corporate investment vitality and potentials.
The contribution of the modern social security system can be explained with a simple model of open economic theory, which assumes that the level of output depends on such production factors as technology, capital, and labor, and the production function is as follows:
Y=AF (K, L)
Where, Y is output; K is capital; L is labor.
After the production factor of the modern social security system is included, the production function is transformed into:
Y=AF (K, L, SS)
Where, SS is social security.
Second, the modern social security system facilitates the free flow of labor - an essential requirement of an open economy. The free flow of labor is an intrinsic characteristic of an open economy. It is essential to ensuring reasonable labor allocation and its role in facilitating the development of an open economy. Such programs as healthcare and occupational safety are conducive to labor productivity (ILO, 2003) and overall output level of an open economy
Unlike direct effects of such production factors as capital and labor, and the level of output, the modern social security system indirectly influences output level by improving the allocation of labor resources.
Theoretical model for an open economy assumes that the level of consumption C is subject to disposable income with a positive correlation between the two:
C=C (Y-T)
Where, T is taxation.
Investment I is subject to real interest rate r and is negatively correlated with r: I=I (r).
Since Y=C+G+I+NX (CA), where G is government spending, and NX stands for trade difference or net export, we have:
NX (CA)=EX-IM=[Y-C-G]-I=S-I, where EX is export volume and IM is import volume.
After the modern social security system as a production factor is included, savings, investment and consumption will all be affected by the social security system. During an economic crisis, the reform of the modern social security system increases household income and consumption. Reforms to ensure protection for laid-off workers and lower insurance premium reduce the burden for enterprises. The countercyclical function of the modern social security system may also mitigate the risk of falling aggregate demand as a result of an expansive fiscal policy.
Third, the modern social security system’s countercyclical effect is a key feature of the modern social security system under China’s socialist market economy. An open market economy is cyclical with alternating recession, depression, recovery, and prosperity cycles. The modern social security system’s countercyclical function is manifested in the global economic crisis of 2008 and the ongoing supply-side
企业成为真正的市场主体，有助于企业作为投资经营主体地位的优势得到充分发挥，可激发企业的投资活力，进而促进整体投资水平的提升。
现代社会保障制度的贡献可以用简单的开放经济理论模型来诠释。开放经济理论模型假设产出水平取决于技术、资本、劳动力等生产要素，生产函数为：
Y=AF (K, L) 其中，Y代表产量，K表示资本，L代表劳动力。纳入现代社会保障制度这项生产要素后，生产函数变成：
Y=AF (K, L, SS) 其中，SS表示社会保障。第二，现代社会保障制度促进了劳动力的自由流动，激发了劳动力这项生产要素满足开放经济发展需求的功能。劳动力的自由流动是开放经济的本质特征，如果劳动力不能自由流动，开放经济体就难以形成。劳动力自由流动才能促进劳动力资源的合理配置，继而充分发挥该生产要素促进开放经济发展的作用。此外，医疗卫生保健和职业安全政策等项目有助于维持或提高劳动者的生产效率（I L O，2003），进而提高开放经济体的总体产出水平。
不同于资本和劳动力等生产要素对产出水平的直接影响，现代社会保障制度通过提高劳动者的生产效率、促进劳动力资源的合理配置等方式间接地影响产出水平。开放经济理论模型还假设消费水平C取决于可支配收入，二者正相关：
C=C (Y-T) 其中，T是税收。投资I取决于实际利率r，并且与r呈负相关：I=I (r)。
由于Y=C+G+I+NX (CA) ，其中G代表政府支出、NX代表贸易差额或净出口额，则NX (CA)=EX-IM=[Y-C-G]-I=S-I，其中EX为出口额、IM为进口额。纳入现代社会保障制度这个生产要素以后，储蓄、投资和消费均会受到社会保障制度的影响。经济危机期间，现代社会保障制度改革增加了居民收入，从而促进了消费水平的提高；保障下岗失业人员的生活、降低保险费率等改革有助于减轻企业的负担，保证企业生产、投资的正常进行；现代社会保障制度“反周期”功能的发挥还能够缓解或避免扩张性财政政策最终导致总需求减少的风险。
第三，现代社会保障制度能够发挥“反周期”的作用，这是中国特色社会主义市场经济条件下现代社会保障制度的一个重要特点。开放型市场经济具有周期性，伴随着衰退、萧条、复苏、繁荣的交替循环；现代社会保障制度的“反周期”功能尤其体现在2008年国际经济危机和当前的供给侧结构性改革中。2008年国际经济危机期间，中国社会保障政策被纳入“一揽子”刺激政策组合中，采取了与一些发达国家紧缩福利相反的措施，通过强力推进各项社会保障制度建设、阶段性降低社会保险费率等方式增加居民收入、减轻企业负担，成为促进经济恢复和增长的第一大引擎。现阶段经济进入新常态后，在供给侧结构性改革中，社会保障制度作为改革大局的有机组成部分，通过多轮的降低费率、制度整合、城乡衔接等适应性变革发挥着协调和配合作用，以提高供给侧结构性改革的综合效益。刚刚闭幕的“两会”正式宣布，养老保险费率在前几年降低1个百分点的基础上，2019年再次下降3个百分点，并且费基也做了大幅下调，费率和费基的“双降”,其力度之大为历史之最。
structural reforms. During the global economic crisis of 2008, China’s social security policy was part of a package of stimulus policies. Contrary to the welfare contraction measures adopted by some developed countries, China beefed up social security and reduced social insurance premium to increase household income and lessen corporate burdens. The social security system thus served as a key engine of China’s economic recovery and growth.
As China’s economy entered into the new normal, its social security system as part of overall supply- side structural reforms have enhanced the effects of reforms through insurance premium reductions, institutional consolidation and urban-rural integration. In March, China’s legislative sessions announced that the pension insurance premium would be reduced by another three percentage points in 2019 after the one percentage point reduction a few years ago. The payment base has been cut substantially as well. Reductions of insurance premium and base are unprecedented.
In an open economy, the modern social security system is a production factor conducive to consumption, investment, economic growth, and trade equilibrium.
5. Conclusions and Outlook
Over 70 years after the founding of the People’s Republic of China, China has successfully transitioned from a closed economy to an open economy and from a traditional social security system under the planned economy to a modern social security system under the socialist market economy. In the planned economy era, state and collective ownership held sway; distribution was simple and characterized by low wage and work points; labor flow and labor market were non-existent. After the transition, China’s modern social security system congruous with the open economy facilitated labor flow, boosted productivity and household consumption, increased corporate investment, and exerted a countercyclical effect during the economic crisis. It contributed to the economic recovery and facilitated the creation and development of an open economy.
However, the modern social security system still faces huge challenges such as aging population, downward economic pressures, and institutional problems. After China entered into an aging society in 2000, the level of the ageing population has been deepening. In 2018, the ageing population at and above 60 years accounted for 17.9% of China’s total population32. According to a UN forecast33, by 2030, 25.1% of China’s population will be aged 60 years and above, and this ratio is expected to exceed 35.1% in 2050 and 36.3% in 2070. Aging population will cause social security spending and fiscal deficits to rise and create strains on the open economy. Downward economic pressures also pose a challenge to the social security system. While the government needs to bolster fiscal input to compensate for the shortfall of social security funds, the lack of contributions due to falling corporate profitability may disrupt the social security system as a whole. Lastly, the pressure of institutional reform also needs to be dealt with. The modern social security system must be made fairer, more sustainable, accessible, and portable in order to fully support the open economy.
Contribution rates are too high and impede corporate competitiveness. The modern social security system was created with the intention to reduce the burden for enterprises. Enterprises are now required to contribute to five items of social insurance, housing provident fund, and enterprise annuity. Put together, they exceed 50% of their payroll - among the highest in the world. The cumulative balances of pension insurance are highly uneven across regions, posing significant risks to fiscal sustainability. While the eastern region boasts great pension insurance balances, the central and western regions require fiscal
总之，开放经济中，现代社会保障制度这项生产要素有助于提振居民的消费信心、刺激消费，激发投资活力，进而拉动经济增长，改善贸易平衡状况。
五、总结与展望
回顾新中国70年历史，中国成功实现双转型：从封闭型经济转向开放型经济，从计划经济体制下的传统社会保障制度转型为适应开放的社会主义市场经济的现代社会保障制度。传统社会保障制度是封闭经济条件下特殊经济体制的产物，适应封闭经济下国有经济和集体经济占统治地位的所有制结构、低工资制和工分制的简单分配关系以及不存在劳动力流动和劳动力市场的国情。转型后适应开放型经济的现代社会保障制度促进了劳动力的自由流动，提高了劳动者的生产效率，有助于提高居民的消费水平并激发企业的投资活力，在经济危机来临时发挥“反周期”功能，有益于促进经济的恢复和发展，从而从整体上帮助开放型经济体的建立并且促进开放型经济的持续健康发展。
然而，现代社会保障制度仍面临着人口老龄化加剧、经济下行压力加大以及制度自身问题等的巨大挑战。首先，人口老龄化加剧的挑战。2000年中国正式进入老龄化社会以来，中国的人口老龄化程度不断加深，
33 34 2018年60岁及以上老年人口占总人口的17.9% ；联合国的预测显示 ，到2030年60岁及以上老年人口的比重可达25.1%到2050年将超过总人口的35.1%，到2070年将达36.3%。人口老龄化必将导致社会保障财政支出不断增加，财政赤字不断扩大，进而影响高质量开放型经济体系的发展。其次，经济下行压力的挑战。经济下行压力将会加剧社会保障制度的财务压力，一方面政府需增加资金投入以应付社保制度的资金缺口，另一方面，因企业经济效益下降导致的缴费不足会影响整个社保体系的运转。最后，制度改革的压力。现代社会保障制度本身仍然存在着公平性、可持续性、可及性、便携性等方面的问题，这些问题如果不能获得有效的解决，将不利于其发挥支撑高质量开放型经济体系的功能。
上述问题包括但不限于如下几点：一是过高的缴费率违背了现代社会保障制度建立时给企业减负的初衷，不利于企业竞争力的提升。目前，中国五项社会保险制度的缴费率合计、住房公积金缴存比例以及企业年金缴费率等总和已超过50%，在世界范围名列前茅。二是养老保险的财务可持续性存在巨大隐患，地区间基金累计结余不平衡（东部沿海地区结余较多、中西部地区需要财政补贴），构成了巨大的财政风险。三是由于统筹层次低和财政体制“分灶吃饭”等原因造成制度便携性差，阻碍了劳动力的全国流动，不利于全国范围内劳动力市场的形成。
展望未来，中国现代社会保障制度的改革取向须满足经济从高速度扩张向高质量发展转型的要求，在供给侧结构性改革中发挥作用。未来改革的必然选择将是关注供给侧的改革，完善顶层设计、保证立法先行、引入精算平衡原则、建立精算预测机制，从而有效应对人口老龄化和经济下行压力带来的挑战；加快提升基本养老保险和医疗保险的统筹层次并推进跨地区的可转移性，彻底实现城乡社会保障制度的一体化以促进劳
subsidy. The lack of regional integration and the “eating from separate stove” fiscal system also inhibits the nationwide flow of labor and the formation of a unified national labor market.
The reform of China’s modern social security system must meet the requirement of economic transition from rapid growth to high-quality growth and support the supply-side structural reforms. Future reform of China’s modern social security system should focus on supply-side reforms, improve the top-level design, give priority to legislation, introduced the principle of actuarial balance, and create a precise forecast mechanism to meet the challenges from an ageing population and downward economic pressures. The reform should also increase the integration of basic pension and medical insurance and cross-regional transferability, integrated urban and rural social security systems to promote labor flow and increase social fairness. Sound social security fund management and fund risk early warning should be introduced to strengthen fiscal sustainability. References: [1] ILO. 2003. Global Employment Agenda, GB. 286/ESP/1. Geneva, Switzerland.
[2] Lin Mingang. 2002. “Public Policy Analysis of China’s Rural Cooperative Medical System.” Jianghai Academic Journal, No.3.
[3] Pei Changhong. 2016. “Theoretical Research Outline of China’s Open Economy.” Economic Research Journal, 2016, No.4.
[4] Sun Qixiang, Xiao Zhiguang. 2013. “The Reform of the Social Security System and the Internal and External Rebalancing of China’s Economy.” Journal of Financial Research, No.6.
[5] Zheng Bingwen. 2009. “60 Years of China’s Social Security System: Achievements and Lessons.” China Demographic Science, No.5. [6] Zheng Bingwen, Yu Huan, Gao Qingbo. 2010. “Review of China’s 60 Years of Social Security System.” Research of Contemporary Chinese History, No.17.
动力流动并增进社会公平；加强社会保障基金管理并建立和完善基金风险预警制度以保障制度财务的可持续性。
参考文献
[1] ILO. 2003. Global Employment Agenda, GB. 286/ESP/1. Geneva, Switzerland.
[2] 林闽钢《：中国农村合作医疗制度的公共政策分析》《，江海学刊》2002年第3期。
[3] 裴长洪《：中国特色开放型经济理论研究纲要》《，经济研究》2016年第4期。
[4] 孙祁祥、肖志光《：社会保障制度改革与中国经济内外再平衡》《，金融研究》2013年第6期。[5] 郑秉文《：中国社会保障制度60年—成就与教训》《，中国人口科学》2009年第5期。
[6] 郑秉文、于环、高庆波《：新中国60年社会保障制度回顾》《，当代中国史研究》2010年第2期。