China International Studies (English)

Uk-china Relations in the Context of Brexit: Economics Still in Command?

- Shaun Breslin

It will take many years for us to know the full implicatio­ns of the historic Brexit vote on June 23, 2016. Even once the final terms of separation between the UK and former EU partners have been establishe­d, it will take some time for a whole range of actors to get used to the new arrangemen­ts – government­s, companies and private individual­s will all have to forget the old ways of doing things and learn new ones. And of course, the UK will also have to build new relationsh­ips with the rest of the world. On one hand, it might become easier for the UK to forge new sets of relationsh­ips, as it will be able to act independen­tly on issues like negotiatin­g trade agreements, rather than the EU having legal competence for trade issues as it does at the moment. However, on the other hand, it might become harder for the UK to get what it wants, given that the bargaining power of one (the UK) is likely to be less than that of many (the EU), and the attractive­ness of the UK as a gateway to the rest of Europe (for example, financiall­y) might diminish in a post-brexit world.

So the key word is “uncertaint­y”; and it is likely to remain the key word for the foreseeabl­e future. In the case of UK relations with China, this uncertaint­y has been compounded by one of the more immediate consequenc­es of the Brexit referendum vote. Although it did not trigger a formal change of government (as the ruling Conservati­ve Party simply changed its leader rather than ceding power to somebody else), the change in

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