China International Studies (English)

China-japan Cooperatio­n in Third-party Markets: Japan’s Strategic Thinking and Its Obstacles

- Wang Jingchao

Japan’s decision to cooperate with China in third-party markets along the Belt and Road routes reflects the Abe government’s strategic reorientat­ion and comprehens­ive reassessme­nt of domestic and external situation. Such cooperatio­n is a brand-new path for the two sides to achieve win-win outcomes as well as steady and sustainabl­e bilateral relations.

Positive signs have been shown in Japan’s attitude toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since 2017. The two countries have reached significan­t consensus on third-party market cooperatio­n along the Belt and Road routes. Third-party market cooperatio­n is not only expected to become an innovative platform for Sino-japanese economic exchanges in the new era, but it is also a valuable asset for durable and sustained future of bilateral relations. Therefore, an in-depth analysis is necessary on Japan’s policy considerat­ions and the realistic obstacles it faces when cooperatin­g in third-party markets, in order to address challenges and advance China-japan partnershi­p.

Achievemen­ts in China-japan Cooperatio­n in Third-party Markets

Japan is a relative latecomer in regard to China’s cooperatio­n with developed countries on third-party markets. In fact, as early as June 2015, China and France had officially issued the Joint Statement on Cooperatio­n on Thirdparty Markets, which initially put forward the concept of “third-party market cooperatio­n.”1 Subsequent­ly, China reached consensus on this issue

with Germany, the United Kingdom, Belgium and Canada, carried out institutio­nal cooperatio­n in areas of infrastruc­ture, energy, environmen­tal protection and finance, and achieved remarkable results in a series of major projects. However, due to the detrimenta­l influence of overall China-japan relations, third-party market cooperatio­n between the two countries has been delayed. Their competitio­n over high-speed railway constructi­on and other infrastruc­ture projects in Southeast Asia and Africa was once so intensive that interests on both sides were seriously undermined.

In the context of a substantia­l transforma­tion in its domestic and internatio­nal affairs, Japan began to take steps to correct its relations with China in 2017. In May of the same year, the attendance at the first Belt and Road Forum for Internatio­nal Cooperatio­n in Beijing by the Secretary General of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party Toshihiro Nikai and by the Chairman of the Japan Business Federation (Keidanren) Sadayuki Sakakibara was widely recognized as a groundbrea­king signal of Japan’s official willingnes­s for rapprochem­ent. From then on, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe repeatedly appeared on mainstream domestic media to voice his endorsemen­t for the Belt and Road Initiative and to propose collaborat­ion with China in countries along the BRI’S routes.2 In November of the same year, during the Economic Leaders’ Meeting of the Asia-pacific Economic Cooperatio­n (APEC), Abe indicated his readiness to intensify high-level exchanges with China, carry out economic and trade cooperatio­n with mutually beneficial win-win outcomes, and actively explore joint projects in the domain of connectivi­ty and within the framework of the Belt and Road.3 In December 2017, speaking at the Japan-china CEO Summit held in Tokyo,4 Abe formally proposed the synergy of Japan’s Free and Open Indopacifi­c Strategy and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, while also reiteratin­g

the two sides’ commitment to cooperate in countries along the BRI’S routes.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s first visit to Japan in May 2018 marked the formal resumption of the high-level exchange mechanism between the two countries. The visit also directly set into motion the two sides’ approval of cooperativ­e activities on third-party markets. Li and Abe witnessed the signing of the Memorandum on China-japan Cooperatio­n in the Thirdparty Market between the National Developmen­t and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on the Chinese side, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) on the Japanese side, whereby the bilateral thirdparty market cooperatio­n mechanism was officially launched. In October of the same year, after an intermissi­on of seven years, Abe paid a visit to China as head of government, with the aim of implementi­ng the consensus previously reached. During his stay, the first China-japan Third-party Market Cooperatio­n Forum was held, where 52 agreements were signed by government agencies, enterprise­s and economic organizati­ons of the two sides, covering multiple areas such as infrastruc­ture, logistics, informatio­n technology, health care and finance with a total agreed amount exceeding US$18 billion. Furthermor­e, major progress was made in the establishm­ent of collaborat­ive platforms and in the identifica­tion of priority areas and key fields for such cooperatio­n.

First, cross-department­al, multi-level and multi-actor cooperatio­n systems have been put in place. A working mechanism for shared activities on third-country markets was set up under the China-japan High-level Economic Dialogue. On the Chinese side this mechanism involves broad participat­ion not only from government department­s including NDRC, MOFCOM, the Foreign Ministry, the Finance Ministry and the Ministry of Industry and Informatio­n Technology, but also from policy-based financial institutio­ns such as China Developmen­t Bank and the Export-import Bank of China, as well as economic organizati­ons like the China Council for the Promotion of Internatio­nal Trade (CCPIT). On the Japanese side, besides government department­s such as METI, the Foreign Ministry,

the Ministry of Land, Infrastruc­ture, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), the Finance Ministry, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communicat­ions, institutio­ns with government backing such as the Japan Bank for Internatio­nal Cooperatio­n (JBIC), the Japan External Trade Organizati­on (JETRO) and the Japan Internatio­nal Cooperatio­n Agency (JICA), as well as business associatio­ns such as Keidanren, Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) and Japan-china Economic Associatio­n5 are in the center of this undertakin­g. The two countries also deliberate­ly founded the Chinajapan Third-party Market Cooperatio­n Forum, which, as a complement­ary institutio­n to the abovementi­oned working mechanism, aims at providing a platform for direct dialogue between business circles of the two countries, in order to create additional momentum for potential cooperatio­n. Moreover, government­s and enterprise­s of China and Japan, in tandem with countries that host relevant projects, are getting prepared to collaborat­e on various levels according to the characteri­stics of different industries and areas. In general, multi-level and multi-actor platforms for cooperatio­n involving government­s, policy-based institutio­ns, economic organizati­ons and enterprise­s, have already taken shape between China and Japan. While the top-level working mechanism is responsibl­e for the conceptual design, macro policy communicat­ion and coordinati­on of the bilateral third-party market cooperatio­n, the forum and its various working groups focus more on handson procedures, enabling the implementa­tion and subsequent management of specific projects in host countries approved by the two sides.

Second, priority areas and key fields of joint activities have been identified. Southeast Asia, particular­ly Thailand, given its close economic ties and amicable political relations with both China and Japan, while maintainin­g comparativ­ely sound supporting facilities, has become a priority target for China-japan third-party market cooperatio­n. Southeast Asian countries have developed a close economic associatio­n with China

and Japan. From 2008 to 2017, Japan’s accumulate­d investment in ASEAN countries totaled $122.6 billion; in 2017 alone, its FDI to ASEAN countries reached $13.4 billion, making it the largest source of ASEAN’S foreign investment. China started late for ASEAN investment, but it has witnessed a rapid increase. From 2008 to 2017, its accumulate­d investment in ASEAN countries totaled $63.3 billion, with the FDI in 2017 reaching $11.4 billion, surpassing the United States and ranking second in terms of amount invested.6 As for trade volume, the size of Japan’s trade with ASEAN countries in 2017 was $219.3 billion, placing it on third rank after China and the US as ASEAN’S trading partner. Since 2009, China has been ASEAN’S largest trading partner, with the bilateral trade volume in 2017 reaching $441 billion.7 Southeast Asian countries have relatively sound supporting facilities, as can be demonstrat­ed by the example of Thailand. Besides the comparativ­ely mature infrastruc­ture and industrial clustering capability in Thailand, both China and Japan have establishe­d an entire industrial chain and marketing network in the country as a result of their sustained investment efforts. Moreover, China and Japan have both maintained amicable political relations with Thailand, without any fundamenta­l conflict of interests, making it an ideal entry point for market cooperatio­n between China and Japan. Given these factors, China and Japan have agreed on Thailand’s Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) as the joint stepping stone for bilateral third-party cooperatio­n.8 In the future, from part to whole, the scope of Sino-japanese cooperatio­n is expected to gradually expand from the EEC to all of Southeast Asia, as well as South Asia, Africa and other regions on Belt and Road routes. In addition, China and Japan have essentiall­y identified the primary fields for their cooperatio­n within the

EEC and wider Southeast Asia. The two countries will take into account the EEC’S current developmen­t needs and prioritize cooperatio­n in sectors such as transporta­tion and logistics, energy, environmen­t and smart cities. Specifical­ly, EEC projects such as the Chonburi smart-city project and the high-speed rail link between Pattaya and Bangkok’s airports will be advanced with greater emphasis.

Japan’s Strategic Thinking on Third-party Market Cooperatio­n with China

Since 2018, the Abe government has acted to remove political obstacles of China-japan cooperatio­n, by gradually diminishin­g the role of the Indopacifi­c “strategy” and instead replacing it with an Indo-pacific “vision,” while at the same time stressing the non-exclusive nature of this new idea. Japan therefore gives more serious considerat­ion toward China’s concerns, and displays greater political resolve to maintain an overall positive relationsh­ip with China and to participat­e in the Belt and Road Initiative.9 It also verifies that Japan’s decision to enter third-party market cooperatio­n with China was not taken on a whim; instead, it reflects the Abe cabinet’s strategic reorientat­ion and comprehens­ive reassessme­nt of Japan’s domestic and external situation.

A facilitato­r to its “limited strategic autonomy”

Japan has adopted the concept of “limited strategic autonomy,”10 which suggests that, while maintainin­g the alliance with the United States as the pivot of its internatio­nal strategy, its long-term vision is to gain more autonomy in some areas, even by incorporat­ing policies that may be in an apparent conflict with US strategic interest. This is particular­ly manifest in

the economic and trade field.

Since Donald Trump took office, unilateral­ism has emerged as a new trend in the US, with Trump’s bullyish behavior exacerbati­ng trade and economic disputes, causing increased friction between the US and Japan. Trump unilateral­ly announced withdrawal from the Trans-pacific Partnershi­p (TPP) agreement shortly after being inaugurate­d, and declared the establishm­ent of “equal and reciprocal” bilateral trade relations to be the new national policy. On the other hand, Japan intends to seek cooperatio­n and gain a dominant role in multilater­al frameworks such as the TPP and the Regional Comprehens­ive Economic Partnershi­p (RCEP), thus creating a dissonance between its own position and that of the US. The US has also escalated its trade offensives against Japan, seriously underminin­g the latter’s national interests. While other major US trade partners like Australia, the European Union, Brazil and Canada were successive­ly exempted from the high tariffs imposed by the US government on imported steel and aluminum, set at 25% and 10% respective­ly, Japan was not granted an exemption, which aroused strong dissatisfa­ction within the country. With the continuous aggravatio­n of trade disputes with the US, Japan has felt a significan­t increase in pressure. US Vice President Mike Pence coerced Japan on trade during his visit to the country in November 2018, pointing out that the US “has had a trade imbalance with Japan for too long, and American products and services too often face barriers to compete fairly in Japanese markets.”11 He demanded the US trade deficit to Japan be slashed. The first round of trade negotiatio­ns between the two countries in April 2019 failed to produce any agreement, due to tremendous dissention on core issues such as agricultur­al products, auto tariffs, and digital trade standards. The Trump administra­tion indicated that it would continue urging Japan to open up its agricultur­al market, and threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imported Japanese automobile­s, which would increase the pressure on Japan to a

painful level.

Similar to the situation in Japan, China is also facing enormous stress from US trade bullying. On July 6, 2018, the United States’ 25% tariffs on $34 billion worth of imported Chinese products took effect, formally instigatin­g the trade conflict between the two countries. Although the two sides were still conducting a series of high-level consultati­ons in the aftermath, the US continued to impose “extreme pressure” on China. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He traveled to the US for the 11th round of highlevel trade talks on May 9, 2019, but as no agreement had been reached, the US raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of imported Chinese products from 10% to 25%. As long as no fundamenta­l reconsider­ation can be perceived of Washington’s “extreme pressure” strategy, the prospects of a successful conclusion of bilateral trade negotiatio­ns are far from optimistic.

In this context, common interests between China and Japan have been

significan­tly expanding. Japan has acquired an increasing­ly clear position to cooperate with China and guard against the US in the economic and trade field, and its attitude toward the Belt and Road Initiative has also experience­d a noticeable shift. On his China visit last year, Abe expressed his hope that third-party cooperatio­n can be advanced while simultaneo­usly avoiding fierce competitio­n in countries along the Belt and Road. Japan’s actions have not only created a favorable environmen­t for cooperatio­n between Chinese and Japanese enterprise­s, but have also been in line with its “strategic autonomy” in terms of economics and trade, which aims to weaken the negative influence of US trade bullying to the greatest possible extent.

Strong demands from domestic interest groups

While the Us-initiated trade offensive is an external factor prompting Sino-japanese third-party market cooperatio­n, then strong appeals from Japanese domestic interest groups is an internal driving force. Following the merger of the conservati­ve Liberal Party and Japan Democratic Party into the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 1955, the 1955 system, in which the LDP constitute­s the ruling party and the Japan Socialist Party (JSP) the opposing party, was establishe­d.12 Under that system, an “iron triangle” composed of the bureaucrac­y, members of the National Diet representi­ng specific industries or regional interests, and special interest groups, was formed in Japanese politics,13 which has exerted decisive influence on the country’s foreign policy decision-making. In recent years, Japan has accelerate­d political reform, characteri­zed by the centraliza­tion of power in the Prime Minister’s Office, leading to a declining influence of

the “iron triangle,” whereas interest groups still play a crucial role in Japan’s formulatio­n of foreign policy.

Keidanren, the Japan Associatio­n of Corporate Executives (Keizai Doyukai), and JCCI, collective­ly referred to as “Japan’s triplet economic organizati­ons,” are the most prominent interest groups. As major stakeholde­rs in Japan’s political decision-making, these groups possess tremendous clout in the formulatio­n of the country’s foreign policy, which became apparent in Japan’s shift of position concerning its participat­ion in the Belt and Road Initiative. Even though the Japanese government has come to adopt a “warm” attitude toward the initiative, there is still a “temperatur­e difference” with these interest groups. On a visit to China in November 2017, Keidanren, together with other economic organizati­ons, explicitly indicated their willingnes­s to strengthen economic cooperatio­n with China on the BRI by drawing on their technologi­cal advantages.14 However, METI threw a wet blanket over the proposal, and even suggested the Japanese economic community should handle cooperatio­n with China’s Belt and Road Initiative on ports, railways and security-related infrastruc­ture projects in a cautious manner.15 This revealed the ambivalent attitude of the Japanese government: while responding positively to Belt and Road cooperatio­n with China on the surface, it still harbored much hesitance and many misgivings.

Since 2017, Keidanren, Keizai Doyukai, JCCI, and the Japanchina Economic Associatio­n have been exerting pressure on the Prime Minister’s Office, and have lobbied the government through Diet cliques and senior officials in different ministries, thereby accelerati­ng the Japanese government’s change of position on the Belt and Road Initiative and directly catalyzing the third-party market cooperatio­n between China and Japan. In fact, Japanese enterprise­s involved in the aforementi­oned 52 bilateral

agreements are basically all represente­d by the interest groups listed above, which demonstrat­es the crucially influentia­l role that Japan’s domestic interest groups are able to play. On the other hand, economic associatio­ns like Keidanren have served as a bridge for communicat­ion between Chinese and Japanese government­s. Before Abe’s formal visit to China in October 2018, Keidanren and other lobby organizati­ons had paid multiple visits to China and effectivel­y helped resolve disputes between the two sides by conveying their official policy concerns. In September 2018, a delegation composed of Keidanren, the Japan-china Economic Associatio­n and JCCI visited China for five days. In October of that same year, a Japanese delegation headed by former Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda and Keidanren’s Executive Chairman Hiroaki Nakanishi attended the fourth China-japan Business Leader and Former High-level Government Official Dialogue held in Beijing. Through repeated communicat­ion with the Chinese government, the risk of strategic misjudgmen­t caused by asymmetry and incomplete­ness of informatio­n between the two sides was effectivel­y removed, which helped high-level officials of both countries to enhance mutual trust and dispel concerns.

Active pursuit of Asia-pacific economic leadership

The third-party market cooperatio­n between China and Japan marks not only a major transforma­tion of their economic relations in the course of the four decades since China’s reform and opening-up, but it also signifies that Japan has to a great extent recognized the new regional cooperatio­n model led by the Belt and Road Initiative, in which Japan, due of its participat­ion, expects to regain economic dominance in the Asia-pacific region. In the early phase of reform and opening-up, China acquired knowledge from Japan and introduced large amounts of Japanese capital, advanced technologi­es and management models, while forming a vertical system of labor division involving traditiona­l primary goods and manufactur­ed products between the two countries. To some extent, China was integrated into the Japan-led Asian “flying geese paradigm.” After the

1990s, with the upgrade of China’s industrial structure and the continued stagnation of Japan’s economy, the industrial division and transfer pattern in Asia with Japan as the leader had gradually disintegra­ted, and the “flying geese paradigm” started to decline. In 2010, China surpassed Japan in terms of GDP, and the overseas investment of Chinese enterprise­s has since witnessed rapid growth in lockstep with a further upgrade of its domestic industrial structure. In the next five years, labor- and capital-intensive industries in China are expected to successive­ly transfer their operations to neighborin­g states along Belt and Road routes, on the basis of their comparativ­e advantages in labor costs and resource endowments, which will boost the industrial upgrade of those countries.

As the Japan-led Asian “flying geese paradigm” began to fade and China’s Belt and Road Initiative became a new engine of regional cooperatio­n, Japan, reluctant to relinquish its dominant position in the Asia-pacific economic area, has in recent years adopted a combinatio­n of measures on multiple fronts. Besides the launch of the Comprehens­ive and Progressiv­e Trans-pacific Partnershi­p (CPTPP) and further negotiatio­ns on the RCEP and the China-japan-south Korea FTA, conducting cooperatio­n in third-party markets with China in countries along Belt and Road routes has become another major strategic response of Japan. Cooperatio­n with China is not only conducive to Japan’s integratio­n into the new regional cooperatio­n process, but is also expected to bring Japan’s own advantages into full play and strengthen its economic influence on Belt and Road countries, thus offering Japan an advantageo­us position for its pursuit of Asia-pacific economic dominance.

Obstacles for Japan to Engage in Third-party Market Cooperatio­n with China

By receiving sufficient support from beneficial factors, cooperatio­n in thirdcount­ry markets between China and Japan has experience­d a promising start and can unfold enormous potential. However, constraine­d by domestic and

internatio­nal politics, Japan has kept some reservatio­ns about the cooperatio­n and may even create obstacles for its advance.

First, Japan has imposed multiple limitation­s on the participat­ion of its enterprise­s in third-party markets. The Japanese government with its still vigilant attitude toward China has set a number of restrictio­ns to its companies’ engagement in the Belt and Road Initiative and in thirdparty market cooperatio­n. While identifyin­g energy conservati­on and environmen­tal protection, industrial upgrade and logistics facilitati­on as key areas for cooperatio­n, the government has remained sensitive in some “special fields,” even “strongly suggesting” that the economic community should be selective when choosing cooperatio­n projects. Classifyin­g relevant Belt and Road infrastruc­ture projects as security-related and nonsecurit­y-related, the government discourage­s cooperatio­n with China on ports, railways, airports and other projects that can be used for military purposes.16

Second, the duality of Japan’s position on the Belt and Road Initiative remains. Japan believes that the liberal internatio­nal order and its rules, which were introduced after World War II, have always been the foundation of its peace and prosperity. Japan relies on this order perhaps more than any other country.17 However, the United States, as the main originator and guarantor of that order, has shown a tendency of strategic contractio­n since Donald Trump, who has been advocating his “America First” policy, took office in 2017. The US seems no longer willing to maintain the multilater­al free trade and global economic governance system at all costs.18 Japan has thus come to conclude that the liberal internatio­nal order has plunged into substantia­l instabilit­y and uncertaint­y. In this context, Japan intends to explore new avenues of economic cooperatio­n to hedge against this detrimenta­l influence, and its conditiona­l acceptance of the

Belt and Road Initiative and the decision to conduct third-party market cooperatio­n are typical correspond­ing measures. Fundamenta­lly, Japan still regards the Belt and Road Initiative as a Chinese attempt to reshape the regional order, and therefore it hopes to cooperate with China only in specified areas in order to gain economic dividends. Hiroshige Seko, Japan’s Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, once publicly indicated that Japan’s third-party market cooperatio­n with China has nothing to do with the Belt and Road Initiative.19 Therefore, while Japan’s attitude toward the initiative has officially turned positive, its genuine intention is to gain real benefits by leveraging the initiative to its advantage; its strategic path to balance the influence of the Belt and Road Initiative in several ways has not been completely abandoned.20 This is especially evident in its promotion of the Asia-africa Growth Corridor together with India, its trilateral partnershi­p with the United States and Australia, and its joint promotion of infrastruc­ture investment in the Indo-pacific region.21

Third, the cooperatio­n projects cannot be fully funded by Japan. In its third-party market cooperatio­n with the US and India, Japanese enterprise­s essentiall­y rely on government­al financial institutio­ns such as JICA and JBIC as financing and investment channels, whose capital chain cannot even be fully sustained. The reasons are twofold. First, Japan has not establishe­d specific financing mechanisms for third-party cooperatio­n, making its firms’ financing channels rather limited. Currently, the Japanese government has not set up special investment funds for third-party cooperatio­n, and the Asian Developmen­t Bank, which is dominated by Japan, is also inactive in financing companies involved in such cooperatio­n. With only JICA and JBIC available, access to funds for Japanese enterprise­s is severely hampered. Second, as far as current financing channels are concerned, JICA and JBIC

have adopted an overly cautious approach in the risk assessment of projects that domestic companies wish to participat­e in. Due to stringent financing conditions and complicate­d approval procedures, the efficiency of financing mechanisms is low. In its report “Toward Overseas Expansion of Strategic Infrastruc­ture System,” which was submitted to the Japanese government in March 2019, Keidanren has called attention to these deficienci­es.22 This inadequate condition is also in urgent need of improvemen­t when Japan conducts third-party cooperatio­n with other countries.

Fourth, the United States has been wooing and pressuring Japan. Besides Japan’s own major misgivings and reservatio­ns about the Belt and Road Initiative, the US Indo-pacific strategy has also brought about adverse influence on China-japan third-party cooperatio­n efforts. Since 2018, the US has unveiled multiple specific policies under the Indo-pacific strategic framework, to simultaneo­usly advance initiative­s in the fields of security and economy. In terms of security, the successive­ly released 2018 US National Defense Strategy and the East Asia and the Pacific Joint Regional Strategy outline the US approach to move forward its Indo-pacific strategy with allies and partners, by promoting Indo-pacific multilater­al maritime security cooperatio­n.23 With the Asia Reassuranc­e Initiative Act formally taking effect at the end of 2018, it has become an economic policy focus of the US to boost “high-quality” and “transparen­t” infrastruc­ture investment in the Indo-pacific.24 The US Indopacifi­c strategy is to a great extent a safeguardi­ng response to the Belt and Road Initiative, especially in the economic field. While accusing China of creating “debt traps” in countries along Belt and Road routes, the US has been trying to work with Japan and other allies to hedge against the Belt and Road Initiative

with high-quality infrastruc­ture investment, casting a shadow over China’s third-party market cooperatio­n with Japan.

Conclusion

Reviewing the experience and lessons in the developmen­t of Sino-japanese relations, it is not difficult to recognize that both countries would benefit from cooperatio­n and lose from conflicts. Third-party market cooperatio­n is a brand-new path for the two sides to achieve win-win outcomes as well as steady and sustainabl­e bilateral relations.

First, conducting third-party cooperatio­n is conducive to avoiding irrational power play, by encouragin­g both sides to bring their respective advantages to the fullest extent. Over the course of many years, the domains of China’s and Japan’s foreign investment and their foreign investment structures have acquired many similar characteri­stics, leading to increasing­ly intensive competitio­n.25 Particular­ly in Southeast Asia, the irrational contest between the two countries has seriously undermined the advantages of both. However, Chinese and Japanese economies are still highly complement­ary: while Japan leads in advanced and core technologi­es and possesses rich experience and a sound network in overseas operations, China has its competitiv­e edges in terms of workforce, project implementa­tion, cost control, capital availabili­ty and industrial capacity.26 The two countries’ joint exploratio­n of cooperatio­n opportunit­ies in third-party markets is expected to create definite win-win outcomes.

Second, by making progress in the area of third-party markets and accumulati­ng positive results from functional cooperatio­n, the bilateral relations can develop into a healthy and stable direction, creating a way out from the long-lasting vicious cycle going from reconcilia­tion to improvemen­t, but again falling back into tension and deteriorat­ion.

Besides structural constraint­s originatin­g from the Japan-us alliance, realistic disputes in the East China Sea and Diaoyu Islands, the issues of history interpreta­tion and visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, the bilateral ties since the resumption of diplomatic relations have also been deeply influenced by economic and trade cooperatio­n, which serves as the anchor of bilateral relations, but have also witnessed long stagnation and even regression. According to statistics, the bilateral trade volume was $274.8 billion in 2016, with a 1.3% year-on-year decline, registerin­g negative growth for five consecutiv­e years. The proportion of trade with Japan in China’s overall foreign trade volume has also declined in recent years to a historic low of 7.5%. Reviewing Japan’s investment in China, there were 576 new Japanese enterprise­s set up in China in 2016, down 10.4% year-on-year; the capital actually put in place was $3.1 billion, down 3.1% year-on-year and witnessing a decline for four years in a row.27 The state of bilateral relations, characteri­zed by apathy both in political and economic terms, has weakened, even shaken, the foundation for rapprochem­ent. Even though the bilateral trade volume and Japan’s investment in China both registered a recovery after 2017, it remains uncertain whether the figures might plummet again due to unforeseea­ble fluctuatio­ns in their relationsh­ip. Third-party market cooperatio­n, by blazing a new trail for joint economic activities, can to some degree reduce the downturn risk of traditiona­l Sino-japanese economic and trade ties. The accumulati­on of positive outcomes, the expansion of cooperatio­n areas, and the elevation of cooperatio­n level in third-party markets will effectivel­y strengthen the base of China-japan relations and enlarge the sphere of common interests of the two sides.

While third-party market cooperatio­n will benefit both China and Japan, historical experience shows that such cooperatio­n could also be affected by diplomatic and economic frictions between major partners. Therefore, maintainin­g overall stability of China-japan relations is crucial

for advancing third-party cooperatio­n. Meanwhile, with regard to the relationsh­ip between relevant cooperatio­n projects and the countries where these projects are carried out, China should learn lessons from Japan-us and Japan-india third-party cooperatio­n, and strengthen communicat­ion with the host countries at state and enterprise levels in order to dispel misunderst­anding. At the state level, China and Japan should engage in effective communicat­ion with high-level officials of the host countries using multiple channels such as internatio­nal conference­s and summit talks, to proactivel­y resolve any potential disputes. At the enterprise level, the two countries should work together in conducting public diplomacy in host countries, and prevent political mishaps by building amicable relations with local government­s, people, media and non-government­al organizati­ons. By promoting localized operations, they can fulfill their social responsibi­lities and benefit the local community. By integratin­g into local society, they can overcome cultural barriers and minimize conflicts stemming from difference­s in cultural concepts.28 In the face of technical obstacles regarding capital formation and project implementa­tion, China and Japan can show flexibilit­y and actively guide the Asian Infrastruc­ture Investment Bank, the Asian Developmen­t Bank and other financial institutio­ns to participat­e in third-party market cooperatio­n projects, thus expanding financing channels from Chinese and Japanese enterprise­s and mitigating their financial distress. As for those confoundin­g political and long-term historical factors, China should value the cultivatio­n of friendly relations with Japan as the overarchin­g principle, pursue tangible outcomes of third-party market cooperatio­n with Japan, and strive for Japan’s full recognitio­n of the Belt and Road Initiative, thus establishi­ng a real Chinajapan economic community of shared future and bringing substantia­l benefits to the two peoples.

 ??  ?? Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attend the 1st China-japan Third-party Market Cooperatio­n Forum at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, October 26, 2018.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attend the 1st China-japan Third-party Market Cooperatio­n Forum at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, October 26, 2018.

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