China’s Diplomatic Options in the Face of Profound Global Changes

Amid “profound changes unseen in a century,” China should understand its own position and role in the evolution of the world landscape and seize the initiative to shape a fairer and more reasonable international order. While strengthening its institutional power, China will strive to become an innovator of the global system of common values, a creator of the system of common interests, and an explorer of the system of common responsibilities.

The world today is undergoing profound changes not seen in a century. In terms of its formal structure, the world system has been greatly affected by the striking economic and social developments, changes in the international order, and adjustments in international relations. In effect, the world is facing great instability and uncertainty. Multilateralism is undergoing a major crisis, global governance is being challenged, while strategic competition among great powers has grown increasingly fierce. Confronting increasingly uncertain circumstances, China should maintain its strategic focus, strengthen the top-level design of its diplomacy, improve the overall layout, and step up efforts in its practices. In this way, China will effectively safeguard the stability of the global order and become an indispensable source of “positive energy” in this changing world.

The World in “Profound Changes Unseen in a Century”

Chinese President Xi Jinping has repeatedly pointed out that the world today is undergoing “profound changes unseen in a century,” which is China’s scientific assessment and accurate sense of the current international situation and of the development going forward. The term “profound changes,” on one hand, includes the structural transformation of world development caused by innovation in politics, economy, and technology. On the other hand, it illustrates the chaos caused by the rising instability.

Shift of economic center presages great change in global power

Gao Fei is Professor and Vice President of China Foreign Affairs University.

balance. Entering the 21st century, the United States and the Western developed countries’ control of the world continues to decline, while emerging markets and developing countries have achieved great success. China, India, Russia, Brazil, and other emerging market countries play an increasingly significant role in global economic growth. As a result, a multipolar world has been rapidly taking shape and thereby creating a more balanced picture in the international configuration. In this shift, China’s economic growth has been most dramatic, with over 9% average real GDP growth per year from 1979 to 2018, and a rising share of the world economy from 1.8% in 1978 to about 16% in 2018. In 1978, China’s GDP was only 6.3% that of the United States and 14.8% that of Japan. By 2018, it was 66.3% that of the United States and 273.6% that of Japan. According to statistics released by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, from 1990 to 2017, the share of developed countries in global GDP fell from 78.7% to 57.8%, while the share of emerging market countries rose from 19.0% to 38.5%.1 Issued in December 2018, a report by the Development Research Center of the State Council of China predicts that, by 2035 the GDP of developing countries will surpass that of developed economies, accounting for around 60% of the world economy and global investment. The focus of global economic growth will increasingly shift from Europe and the United States to Asia, spilling over to other developing countries and regions.2 The collective rise of emerging markets and developing countries has reversed the overriding “West-centric” orientation both geographically and culturally, altering the situation of Western domination since 1648 and making the world more balanced and diversified.

Scientific revolution leads to great change in the pattern of interstate competition. Technological innovation has always been the biggest driver in the accumulation of wealth and improvement of people’s well

being.3 Driven by scientific development, the world is heading for the fourth industrial revolution. In this trend, new and somewhat disruptive technologies continue to emerge, and the transformation of scientific achievements into tangible applications has accelerated significantly. Furthermore, the organizational form and production chain of industries are becoming increasingly monopolistic. In this context, major countries have increased their investment in research and development of emerging technologies represented by artificial intelligence, big data, and internet of things. The level of technological development as an indicator of comprehensive national strength has been further enhanced, leading to fierce contest among major countries. Since the 1950s, relying on technological advantages, developed countries have taken the initiative to shift out of low value-added industries and have obtained excess profits. In 1990, 97.1% of patents were filed by developed countries. By 2015, however, China had become the world’s largest patent applicant, accounting for 46.8% of the world’s total,4 placing the number of patent applications of developing countries ahead of those submitted by developed countries. At present, China has made world-class achievements in unmanned aerial vehicle, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, blockchain, nanotechnology and biomedicine, etc. By 2018, the number of R&D personnel in China had reached 4.18 million, ranking first in the world; the number of citations and the total number of papers on science and technology ranked second; the number of invention patent applications and grants ranked first; the number of high-tech enterprises reached 181,000, and that of small and medium-sized enterprises exceeded 130,000. Moreover, the contribution rate of technological advancement is expected to exceed 58.5%, ranking China 17th in the world in terms of comprehensive innovation capacity.5

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